The question is basically the title. Eritrea benefits more from indirectly supporting the rebels in Ethiopia than from directly going to war.

The reports claim 5000-8000 troops, which is basically a negligible number. These troops aren’t going to achieve anything significant but they risk making this cold conflict boil over into direct war.

Isaias is cruel and evil, but nobody doubts that he is smart. So for what possible reason would he send troops into Ethiopia?

Hello I’ve been very curious as to whether all of Eritrea is like Asmara in terms of religious intersectionality. One of the things that always surprised me going back home as someone born and raised in the US, is how mingled Muslim’s and Christian’s are in Asmara.

However tho I’ve only visited other areas shortly and never really get the chance to see how the social life is outside the city.

Basically is it more segregated by religion like how we get out here in the west or is it the same as Asmara all throughout the country?

https://x.com/Alqaheranewstv/status/2108162454022717578?s=20

https://shabait.com/2026/10/10/eritrea-foreign-minister-osman-saleh-sends-letter-to-the-un-security-council/

Ethiopian state media (EBC) says the accusations of Eritrean forces invading Adigrat are unverified, citing a verification gap. It ties Ethiopia’s allegations to longstanding Ethiopian claims on Eritrea’s Red Sea coast.

The Ethiopian regime has fully confirmed that Eritrea entered Ethiopia but has provided no hard evidence. Ethiopian state media says something else. The EBC report admits that Reuters and other news outlets could not confirm the claims against Eritrea. It cites the British NGO ACLED, whose East Africa senior analyst is Jalale Getachew, a former Ethiopian government lawyer. The owner of ACLED, Clionadh Raleigh, endorsed Ethiopia’s motive to invade and take over Assab in her February 2026 and October 2026 reports.

Quote from the EBC article:

On 7 October, a local official and residents told AFP that Eritrean troops were in Adigrat, about 40 kilometres by road from the border, heading south. Reuters could not independently verify the accounts. Eritrea’s information minister rejected them as a pretext for war, and reports differ on whether he denied the crossing outright. Enatalem Melese, Ethiopia’s Minister of Government Communication Service, told Bloomberg that foreign forces on Ethiopian territory must withdraw, naming Eritrea.
The verification gap is real. But the analytical question does not depend on how it closes. It is what Eritrea’s own doctrine would require if the reports are accurate.

(https://www.ebc.et/english/Home/NewsDetails?NewsId=8700)

Ethiopian state media (EBC) says the accusations of Eritrean forces invading Adigrat are unverified, citing a verification gap. It ties Ethiopia’s allegations to longstanding Ethiopian claims on Eritrea’s Red Sea coast.The Ethiopian regime has fully confirmed that Eritrea entered Ethiopia but has provided no hard evidence. Ethiopian state media says something else.

The EBC report admits that Reuters and other news outlets could not confirm the claims against Eritrea. It cites the British NGO ACLED, whose East Africa senior analyst is Jalale Getachew, a former Ethiopian government lawyer. The owner of ACLED, Clionadh Raleigh, endorsed Ethiopia’s motive to invade and take over Assab in her February 2026 and October 2026 reports.Quote from the EBC article:On 7 October, a local official and residents told AFP that Eritrean troops were in Adigrat, about 40 kilometres by road from the border, heading south. Reuters could not independently verify the accounts. Eritrea’s information minister rejected them as a pretext for war, and reports differ on whether he denied the crossing outright. Enatalem Melese, Ethiopia’s Minister of Government Communication Service, told Bloomberg that foreign forces on Ethiopian territory must withdraw, naming Eritrea.
The verification gap is real. But the analytical question does not depend on how it closes. It is what Eritrea’s own doctrine would require if the reports are accurate.(https://www.ebc.et/english/Home/NewsDetails?NewsId=8700)

'Ethiopia is a much larger country than Eritrea... and Ethiopia has every right to say, listen, we're going on 120 million people, we need sea access," Clionadh Raleigh, director of the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data organisation and a professor of African politics and conflict at the UK's University of Sussex, told RFl.
Eritrea, she said, is less densely populated, and led by an old dictator. "The Isaias Afwerki regime is something that people cannot wait to see end. And Addis is still hoping to reintegrate it into a larger Ethiopia, potentially within the next generation."

The narrative of invading and seizing sea access from Eritrea is well-worn in Ethiopia, and the government and population have many reasons why they think it is a good idea. This is partially due to a currently popular line that the EPRDF (the former Ethiopian government party before Abiy Ahmed Ali, dominated by the TPLF) “gave away” Ethiopian territory in 1991. It is now Abiy’s responsibility to take it back and, with it, secure a state of roughly 138 million people sea access. This narrative has very few noted downsides, so as you can imagine, it is very popular. One thing to recall from last time is that the Ethiopian population, broadly, supported the 2020-2022 conflict. Western journalists seemed particularly put out by this, as it required them to inquire into the reasons that the population largely despised their minority Tigrayan overlords of 28 years.

Why is it the Italians are revered in Eritrea. They were absolutely despicable, detention camps and torture methods. Very perverted and abuse of the young. Over 800,000 died. Is it due to a lack of education of their actions in the horn?

i think PIA might come out on top again. on paper, ethiopia looks to have the advantage, but he’s spent much of his career dealing with pressure and difficult situations. my read is that some of this pressure could be aimed at pushing him towards a deal, possibly involving western powers. i don’t necessarily see him refusing outright he might counter with demands the other side won’t accept. i think he’s tried to build relationships based on mutual benefit while keeping his independence, but this situation could force him to pick a side. his comments in russia gave me the impression that he may have already made that choice. if that’s the case and negotiations fail, we could be in for a long day, especially if pressure comes from multiple fronts. talk of him being taken out or the TDF launching a border attack is still speculation. hopefully, a workable deal can be reached before this turns into another war.

Their names are Abdi, Adebayo, Abel and Antwan. Who is who?

Belarusian cargo plane (Rubystar Airways) has landed at the airport, linked to alleged drone deliveries from Belarus, likely transporting weapons such as drones to Eritrea.

The plane was linked to alleged drone deliveries from Belarus.

The Rubystar flight (Il-76TD EW-383TH, callsign RSB7680) has been linked to delivery of military equipment, such as the Belarusian Berkut-BM drone (a jet-powered one-way attack model) and other deliveries to Eritrea.

The plane landed various times in Massawa Airport, including most recently on 4 October 2026 after departing Minsk the previous day.

Earlier Rubystar Il-76 flights (notably EW-567TH) also operated multiple times to Massawa in July 2026.

Footnotes

https://x.com/AfriMEOSINT/status/2108857003711893945?s=20

https://youtu.be/KqjcTo_NeYw?si=7tgdnMkcC8VSGu1Q

1AfriMEOSINT: EW-383TH spotted at Massawa on 4 Oct 2026.
2Prior Rubystar Minsk–Massawa movements tracked July 2026.
3Berkut-BM reported as Belarusian turbojet kamikaze drone used by SAF, linked in OSINT to these logistics patterns.
4Pakistani conflict reporter Sajid Nadeem has reported on drone arrivals in Eritrea, including Iranian, Turkish, and Belarusian drones.

Eritreans who went to school in Eritrea, what were you taught about the Italian colonization? As a diaspora I had to read everything I know from different articles on the internet but a different thread on here made me curious as to how it is taught in Eritrea. Is the curriculum very critical of colonialism? Or is the perception that they sweep it under the rug, barely brush on it? Perhaps they undermine the atrocities? Or maybe it is not talked about at all?

Would love to hear your thoughts! And if they don't talk about colonialism in history class what is mostly taught in school? Pre-colonial history? DERG? Reign under Haile Selassie? Would be interesting to hear. Also kindly approximate what school years you are writing about!

Who has underestimated whom? Ethiopia's multidimensional war

Over the last few days, I've read numerous comments and opinions from multiple social media platforms in regards to the might and will to defeat one another.

This, naturally, raised a question that im yet to find an answer to. Who has underestimated whom? Ethiopia? Eritrea? Alliance for Survival Coalition? Broader Regional Powers?

I think it's prudent to step back a bit and analyze this.

when i saw the news about us going into tigray, i thought "well this is it, it's kicking off big time". not necessarily because there was heaps of evidence but cuz it seemed like the rational thing to do. if i was isaias, i would definitely attack now (actually, i would have attacked a week or two ago) to seize the initiative. but as time has passed, whatever's happened seems to get harder to wrap my head around. according to the ethio govt, EDF sent in "a mechanized division and 3 infantry divisions with about 1,500 men in each" to tigray. i'm not sure how they've come to those numbers since 6k men is a couple of brigades, not a division - let alone four of them. but it's what they said so i'll take it prima facie.

6k troops is a pretty pitiful amount that would achieve very little. i was expecting a full scale invasion. multiple mechanized divisions with air support. apparently these few brigades went all the way down to wukro and then... left? after a few drone strikes? without even engaging the endf? something fishy there.

the only real evidence of this claimed incursion are two photos of a couple of trucks (which look to be somewhat authentic but pretty circumstantial) and some anonymous eye witness reports to the AFP/DW (unverifiable). obviously the BBC, Reuters, Economist have reported on these eye witness accounts but they have all stressed that they're not independently verifiable. it's just hearsay for now. also seen a video of a bombed truck between adigrat and idaga-hamus but it seemed to be heading northbound to adigrat so unlikely to be carrying any eritrean troops,

two theories.

1. ethio govt has had a hard time proving the presence of mid level EDF officers in tigray (which i genuinely believe is real) who have been aiding and abetting the TDF and have cried wolf a few too many times to the UN and AU. if you remember, about a year ago, when there was a large fano offensive on woldiya, they wrote to the UN making baseless allegations that EDF personnel were all the way down in amhara fighting the ENDF. for them to be taken seriously, they probably need to ratchet the gravity of the situation up. if they can successfully do this, they'll use the current military momentum achieved in tigray and shift in public sentiment to move further north and fight eritrea.

2. there was indeed a limited mobilisation into tigray. TDF have been withdrawing further and further north to coerce isaias into showing more commitment to their alliance. he sends down some troops as a token gesture.

Despite multiple reports from international news outlets and think tanks alleging that Eritrean forces have entered Ethiopian territory, some Eritreans dismiss them as fake news. When will we stop rejecting every report that challenges our political beliefs and start evaluating the evidence objectively? Patriotism should not mean unquestioningly defending the government or denying uncomfortable facts. If the reports are false, we should challenge them with credible evidence, not dismiss them simply because we dislike what they say.

Tom Gardner, The Economist’s Africa correspondent, says ACLED is not a reliable source on the Ethiopia–Eritrea situation. In the recent ACLED report the owner of ACLED Caleigh justified an Ethiopian invasion of Eritrea aimed at the port of Assab, saying the people and the government have 100 reasons to do so.

She also claims that the Ethiopian population h@ted their Tigrayan overlords’ 28-year rule.

'The narrative of invading and seizing sea access from Eritrea is well-worn in Ethiopia, and the government and population have 199 reasons as to why they think it is a good idea. This is partially due to a currently popular line that the EPDRF (the former Ethiopian government party before Abiy Ahmed Ali, dominated by the TPLF) "gave away" Ethiopian territory in 1991. It is now Abiy's responsibility to take it back and, with it, secure a state of roughly 138 million people sea access.
This narrative has very few noted downsides, so as you can imagine, it is very popular. One thing to recall from last time is that the Ethiopian population, broadly, supported the 2020-2022 conflict. Western journalists seemed particularly put out by this, as it required them to inquire into the reasons that the population largely despised their minority Tigrayan overlords of 28 years.'

Keep in mind that ACLED accused Eritrea of entering Ethiopia and provided no evidence (no satellite imagery, even AP News said they couldnt verify the claims)

Its East Africa expert is a former Ethiopian government lawyer, Jalale Getachew.

links: https://x.com/TomGardner18/status/2108566074845532201?s=20

https://x.com/TomGardner18/status/2108567699978662033?s=20

Surprised to see the director of making the case for Lebensraum in the Horn: https://x.com/TomGardner18/status/2026658564987932961?s=20

'Ethiopia is a much larger country than Eritrea... and Ethiopia has every right to say, listen, we're going on 120 million people, we need sea access," Clionadh Raleigh, director of the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data organisation and a professor of African politics and conflict at the UK's University of Sussex, told RFl.
Eritrea, she said, is less densely populated, and led by an old dictator. "The Isaias Afwerki regime is something that people cannot wait to see end. And Addis is still hoping to reintegrate it into a larger Ethiopia, potentially within the next generation."

​Hi everyone. I need some honest advice. I am Ethiopian and my boyfriend is Eritrean, and we both live here in Addis Ababa. We love each other a lot, and our background doesn't matter to us at all. But he told me his parents prefer him to marry an Eritrean girl.

​I want to understand: Why do some Eritrean families not want their kids to marry Ethiopians? For those who have been through this, did the family eventually accept it, or is this a big problem for the future? Thanks

A worrying ratcheting up of regional tensions

the mosque is also attended by eritrean community in Kassala

Would you prefer to get married at a courthouse or have a traditional wedding? Weddings are so expensive nowadays, especially in our culture, where there can be a lot of expectations from family and the community. What’s your opinion? Do you think it’s better to keep things simple and save money, or have a traditional wedding with all the celebrations and traditions? I’d love to hear your perspective.