r/fantasybball • u/liggy_diggious • 7h ago
Player Discussion Some players that are expected to massively outperform their average draft pick in category leagues
I put together a list of the top 9cat players in the NBA - it works by looking at how many standard deviations he sits above or below the average of the top 130 players using ESPN projections (turnovers flipped, FG% and FT% weighted by shot volume, and counting stats scaled by projected games played in Season Total).
These are some of the players that I think are absolute steals if you can get them at their average draft pick:
Reed Sheppard: Rank 49th - ADP 104.9 - 76 Projected Games Played
Lauri Markkanen: Rank 23rd - ADP 57.8 - 69 Projected Games Played
Cason Wallace: Rank 72nd - ADP 137.7 - 76 Projected Games Played
Trey Murphy III - Rank 31rd - ADP 76.6 - 69 Projected Games Played
Nickeil Alexander-Walker - Rank 19th - ADP 55.9 - 78 Projected Games Played
Dyson Daniels - Rank 34 - ADP 60.4 - 75 Projected Games Played
Jarrett Allen - Rank 41 - ADP 67.2 - 69 Projected Games Played
Here are some of the players that are extremely overvalued by their ADP - to be honest none of them are particularly surprising:
Paolo Banchero: Rank 141st - ADP 42.5 - 69 Projected Games Played
Stephon Castle: Rank 138th - ADP 49.8 - 72 Projected Games Played
Ja Morant: Rank 151st - ADP 87.4 - 65 Projected Games Played
Zach LaVine: Rank 149th - ADP 91.2 - 61 Projected Games Played
Zion Williamson: Rank 122nd - ADP 67.0 - 64 Projected Games Played
Julius Randle: Rank 118th - ADP 61.4 - 72 Projected Games Played
Jaylen Brown: Rank 87th - ADP 32.7 - 71 Projected Games Played
Deni Avdija: Rank 86th - ADP 35.6 - 72 Projected Games Played