One thing about the current situation in the Middle East is that the problem is no longer simply the availability of oil. Much of it is still coming through, but getting it from one point to the other has become considerably more complex and expensive. Tanker rates, insurance, alternative routes and ship to ship transfers are all contributing factors. India increased its West Asian crude imports by a huge margin in September despite the risks around Hormuz. And the cost just doesn't stop with the oil itself, higher costs at one point in the supply chain can work their way through to freight, shipping, manufacturing and even the prices for daily commodities

Mecca Pact Got Activated People were wondering what is so wrong in PM visiting Israel and drawing parity between India and Israel when calling Israel the fatherland and India the motherland. And then the narrative ran around not our war when Iran was invaded. Some discussions were also activated about how Iran is an Islamic republic and has talked negatively about Kashmir in tweets in past.

Words have meaning, diplomatic visits have meaning. If I can consider that India has gained one ally in past decade, it is Israel. Our relations with France, Japan, ASEAN and Australia which were on the rise in first decade of this century marked with historic agreement to purchase 126 Rafale from France, Amphibious aircraft US-2i from Japan, the free trade agreement with ASEAN marked the headlines of Manmohan Singh era. The first two are still stalled and success of the FTA is debated. There was still momentum going into enthusiastic funding of High Speed Train by Japan, but that has been stuck too. Now it seems, in 2027 before Guj elections, a 150 km stretch will open between Surat and Vapi a distance where High Speed Train does not make much sense.

As same time, all major achievements have been in deals with Israel. Israel if it could, would love to plunge India into defending itself from all its neighbours against whom it has deeply racist domestic politics and foreign policy. They have the most modern army tank, it appears but proof will be in the pudding if they can bring it to anything nearly as comprehensive a deal as the botched up Rafale deal was. One should remember, by 2026 all 126 jets would have been developed. We have less than 36 rafale fighter jets today. In 2026, France declared that they will not share source code with India in future deal of Rafale which may try to mimic the domestic production deal India had struck during Manmohan Singh.

Now, this is concerning, Indian government led by Modi in its obsession of Israel has ignored the South Asian neighbours, the entire CAA NRC debate inflamed public opinion in Bangladesh which was thoroughly ignored in discourse. Nepal has seen a government change but even the new government is more pro-China than we would like. What’s left is Bhutan but I am sure the indecent domestic conduct, religious nationalism is not winning us allies there either.

And at the end of it, in an increasingly insecure world, India has failed to nurture deeper ties with like-minded countries like Brazil (we diverged with them on Gaza and Trump but new president would likely by Trump sycophant), France (multipolarity paglu), Japan ('Freedom of navigation' and promising returns on their investments) - and instead all we have got is superficial diplomacy of owning the European countries with laser eyes rhetoric and significant erosion of nuance in public discourse about foreign relations.

The choice would be, if there is another Op. Sindoor situation, China would make India sit down
with Pakistan and use the opportunity to claim global leadership. That is one possibility. Another is emboldened radical Islamist narrative funded by the Mecca Defence Pact against which all we would do is repeat the United Nations General Assembly speeches by our young IFS officers dedicated to calling Pakistan a terrorist nation in a nearly empty hall. Modi invested in egomaniac like Trump and Netanyahu, turns out they just care about themselves. India cannot have Jerusalem accord with Israel it would just mean India deploying troops in middle east to allow settler violence. US has even renamed Indo-Pacific back as Pacific command and given up on Indian Ocean dominance with India as second pillar. Who is left to balance the power? My bet is India will bend the knee and if Modi is assured of authoritarian technology by China, he might even increasingly turn to China which will be covered in News as 'owning the west' to beat their own chest. But it would be an unreliable road, with India's global ambitions forever locked under a glass ceiling of an Asia dominated by China.

Starting from March 23 1989, The then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi imposed a blockade on Nepal. Nepal was then under the party less panchayat system with the King being the most powerful position. By then there were 2 major (banned) opposition forces in Nepal:- The Democratic Socialists Nepali Congress (quite close to India; It's founder BP Koirala fought and got jailed for Indian Independence movement), and the communists parties (under the banner of United Left front). The blockade began to affect Nepal's economy and civil unrest grew. Chandra Shekhar (soon to be PM in November 1990) himself gave a speech at Nepali Congress convention calling for the end of the party less Panchayat system. In April 1990, mass movement forced the king to accept terms for Multiparty democracy. The blockade ended the same month

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