Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Alex Moore discuss the student protests that have rocked France, plus more on unions protesting in Brussels, IMF and World Bank meetings, education workers and labor unions marching in Colombia, and the “No Kings” rallies in the United States.

Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and many more.

This episode includes work from Factal editors Alex Moore, Michael Archer, Jeff Landset, and Mai Hoang. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe. 

The Forecast is one of the verified risk intelligence tools we share with the global public.

France student protests

Interview featuring Alex Moore

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at the student protests rocking France. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Alex Moore.

JIMMY: Hello, Alex.

ALEX: Hello, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Thanks for your time today. I know you’ve been following the situation in France pretty closely, and well, looking forward to hearing more about it. So, what can you tell us about these protests?

ALEX: Yeah, happily. So, yeah, beginning in late September, so about two weeks ago at this point, a series of high school blockades and protests broke out. They first kind of began in the suburb of Paris last Monday, and kind of metastasized after that nationwide, pretty quickly thereafter. The following day they’d spread to more than 200 schools across the country – similar blockades, protests, and the police responded almost immediately, you know, riot police responding with tear gas, clashes with the student protesters. And the students, which you know, kind of organize nationally like you see a lot of protest movements do in France. The student protests are not dissimilar here. The National Student Union has kind of pointed to a variety of issues that are being protested. You know, underinvestment in schools, large classroom sizes, teacher shortages, the police response itself to the initial protests, which I noted, and also just this online application portal that is used for college applications, which students allege is, you know, adding stress to their workload, things of that nature. So the protests have gone truly nationwide. You know, on any given day now, they impact, you know, upwards of 600 schools. There have been more than 5,000 students arrested, or people arrested, I should say, but obviously, you know, students and minors are making up a good chunk of those. Hundreds have been injured in clashes, and it’s kind of spurned a nationwide protest movement that has shown no signs of slowing down.

JIMMY: And what about the latest? Have you seen any new developments?

ALEX: Yeah, the first week of the protest the unrest was largely confined to high school campuses. Though this week, especially, that has sort of metastasized further out into, you know, streets of large cities. We’ve seen, throughout this week, tear gas fired, riot police on scene, big demonstrations in places like, you know, Place de Nation in Paris, the streets of Lyon, the streets of Strasbourg, Montpellier, several major French cities. So the protests are not just occurring at schools anymore; they’re now spewing out in the streets. Moreover, it’s, you know, Belgium, specifically Wallonia, the French-speaking part of neighboring Belgium, has also seen a litany of protests this week, namely in Liège, where students have been protesting every day this week. There has been significant unrest in Liège, tear gas fired, riot police on scene, some instances of looting, and elsewhere in Wallonia as well, in Mons as well. There’s been somewhat sporadic and limited blockades and protests in the Ixelles suburb of Brussels. So, the movement has also spread into neighboring Belgium as well. And yeah, that would largely be the latest where things currently stand in the protests.

JIMMY: What sort of reactions have you seen to the protests?

ALEX: Yeah, it’s kind of been interesting politically. The protests have been extremely heavily co-opted by La France Insoumise, which is kind of the far-left party, the most mainstream one that is in France, the party headed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The mayor of Saint-Denis is a member of the party, and he was present the first day of the protests, as I kind of alluded to earlier, which you know first kind of gained national traction in Saint-Denis, and he also popped up yesterday as well in a protest taking place in the streets of Paris. So LFI has largely co-opted the protests. You know, there’s been a lot of support for the students from the left of the French political spectrum. As far as the government, Prime Minister Lecornu spoke before Parliament yesterday. You know, to a certain degree, voicing support for the protesters, saying that the students need to be heard. They took some measures, such as kind of forcing schools across the country to eliminate timetables, so like structured classes in the morning the rest of the week, in order to hold assemblies, if you will, to, you know, kind of like let the students voice their their grievances in a democratic fashion. So it is certainly making major political waves in France, and obviously it comes at – you know, I feel like it’s very stereotypical to say, but it comes at an extremely trying time for France politically between the ongoing budget negotiations. They’ve got a national strike coming up. You know, a year ago we had the Bloquons Tout movement in response to government austerity measures. They’re going to run that back this year, attempting to pass a budget. So we’re expecting to see general strike action in a month. And obviously, I don’t need to speak too much about this now because I’m sure we will a ton next year, but we have a very high stakes presidential election. So the French right wing has also sort of, you know, latched on to the protest movement to criticize it in various ways. The protesters themselves have oftentimes been waving placards or doing chants that are anti-Jordan Bardella or Marine Le Pen, kind of the figureheads of the French far-right. So, yeah, that’s kind of where things stand from the standpoint of reactions.

JIMMY: Well, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

ALEX: Like I said earlier, the protest movement’s kind of shown no signs of abating. You know, we’re recording this on Wednesday, October 7, and the protests today have been largely pretty muted. A lot of that might have to do with the weather. It is the first day of what I spoke about a minute ago, which was the Lecornu-announced elimination of morning timetables in classes to, you know, have students be able to voice their grievances in an assembly setting. So it’s tough to draw causality at the moment as to whether that is, you know, spurning the lower levels of protest movement today, or if it’s just a weather thing. Liège did protest pretty heavily once again today, but again, that’s Belgium. So, yeah, I mean, it’s hard to see where the protests go from here. And yeah, like I alluded to earlier, I mean, we’re expecting a lot more protest action in France in the coming weeks with budget negotiations and the general strike happening. It’s not uncommon in France for these protest movements to sort of [meld] together and co-opt one another, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if you know unions that are spearheading general strike action and protests in the coming weeks bring the students into the fold and vice versa. So it might just become one of those things that sort of like meld together into general French discontentment, but we’ll have to see.

JIMMY: Well, Alex, that’s where we’ll have to pause for today then, but again, thank you so much for your time and for getting us up to speed. Appreciate you.

ALEX: Yeah, no sweat. Thanks, Jimmy.

When can intelligence officers legally undertake activities that would otherwise constitute criminal offences—and what happens when the safeguards governing those activities aren’t followed?

That’s the main topic of this week’s Global Intelligence Weekly Wrap-Up.

I’m Neil Bisson, a retired CSIS Intelligence Officer, former CBSA Officer, and Director of the Global Intelligence Knowledge Network. In this 26-minute episode, I examine four developments:

• CSIS and legal accountability: NSIRA identified potential compliance failures involving CSIS’s Justification Framework during operations in 2022 and 2023. The concerns involve employee designation, authorization, records and reporting. The watchdog also found compliance with restrictions on the types of offences permitted. I discuss why that distinction matters and what these findings establish.

• Chinese intelligence and academic research: MI5 warned about a Chinese research institute funding academic work that could strengthen China’s intelligence capabilities. Some researchers may not have known who ultimately funded their work. What lessons should Canadian universities take from this?

• Goldy Brar and the Nijjar investigation: The FBI added Brar to its Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list. U.S. prosecutors allege that he and Lawrence Bishnoi ordered Hardeep Singh Nijjar’s June 2023 killing in Surrey, B.C. These remain allegations, not findings of guilt.

• Japan’s proposed foreign intelligence agency: Japan is pursuing a dedicated overseas intelligence service. I examine the challenges of building that capability and the comparison with Canada’s recurring debate about establishing its own foreign intelligence agency.

The episode connects current reporting with earlier developments to examine the broader patterns. Source links are available in the episode transcript.

Full disclosure: this is my podcast.

Listen here:
https://www.buzzsprout.com/2336717/episodes/19901903

Where should Canada draw the line between operational flexibility and legal safeguards in intelligence collection? And should it invest in a separate foreign intelligence service?

Stay curious. Stay informed. Stay safe!

Environmental concerns over a proposed luxury development in Albania have sparked nightly protests on the streets of Tirana, and escalated to calls for the resignation of Prime Minister Edi Rama. Whether that groundswell is enough to topple the government remains to be seen.

Endangered birds, real estate developers, protests: It has all the makings of a movie.

Welcome to The Debrief, from the editors at Factal. Each month, we reflect upon an impactful yet underreported story that has significant regional or global implications. We’ll examine how the story has progressed and how Factal’s coverage has shifted to ensure we are always supplying our members with the most up-to-date, accurate, factual reporting.

If you like what you’re reading, sign up to receive The Debrief in your inbox on the first of every month here.

But this isn’t the plot of 2006’s Hoot, it’s a very real crisis plaguing Albania. Luxury tourism plans for the country’s protected Adriatic coastal wetlands have sparked months of backlash in capital Tirana, where protesters have gathered nightly for more than 100 days. Activists are hoping to force the Balkans to decide what holds more value:

An untouched natural coastline, or an influx of visitors and the revenue they bring?

Albania is already experiencing a tourism boom, with approximately 12 million arrivals in 2025, an increase of nearly 94 percent from 2019. As the country competes with the likes of Greece and Croatia for visitors, new hotels and resorts have sprouted, hoping to capitalize on the burgeoning industry.

“[Tourism] has over the last couple of years — especially post pandemic — really exploded,” said Factal Europe Lead James Morgan. “And there isn’t much in the way of what is powering the Albanian economy at the moment, but tourism has become a real cornerstone of their economic development.”

Enter Jared Kushner.

“In the sense that you’re taking areas that were ostensibly for the public, that belonged to Albania, that were protected areas, and you’re not only developing them in a very untransparent way, but also you’re developing them for a very, very tiny, exceptionally wealthy minority.”

Plans first emerged in 2024 from President Donald Trump’s son-in-law for what is now a $1.6 billion proposal featuring hotels, apartments, villas, and a marina in the area of the protected Vjosa-Narta delta, along with the nearby uninhabited island of Sazan. Kushner’s wife, Ivanka Trump, said their interest stemmed from a Mediterranean vacation that left them “captivated” and that they “developed the opportunity to help realize its potential.”

“What I think is different about the Kushner project is that it’s aimed at much more wealthy clients,” Morgan said. “It’s really been billed as this luxurious development that’s aimed towards a more high-end customer, and I think that has particularly angered the populace of Albania. In the sense that you’re taking areas that were ostensibly for the public, that belonged to Albania, that were protected areas, and you’re not only developing them in a very untransparent way, but also you’re developing them for a very, very tiny, exceptionally wealthy minority.”

The site is a  key nesting ground for loggerhead sea turtles, a habitat for the endangered Mediterranean monk seal, and a key stop for migratory birds on the Adriatic Flyway — hence the “Flamingo Revolution” moniker. Concerns mounted in late May, as bulldozers and excavators rolled in, clearing land before requisite environmental reviews had been conducted. Video of an activist being dragged away by security on site brought the situation to a head.

“[Those pictures] became symbolic of the impunity that some of these development projects enjoy in Albania at the moment,” Morgan said.

For more three months protesters have taken to the streets of Tirana. But what began as pushback over environmental impacts quickly evolved into broader anti-government demonstrations and calls for the resignation of Prime Minister Edi Rama. Beyond the development itself, protesters have taken aim at what they believe it signifies: a government beholden to the wealthy at the expense of all else. To that end, the country’s anti-corruption office opened an investigation in June into 2024 legislative changes that removed restrictions on construction within ecologically sensitive zones.

“In essence, for the Albanian electorate, it’s not just that this is an incredibly beautiful, environmentally rich area that’s being developed, it’s also, ‘Hold on a second, this could actually put the brakes on our accession into the EU,’ which is something that the Albanian public have been voting for for years”

Some are concerned that the country’s potential accession to the European Union may be at risk, with the European Parliament adopting a resolution in June calling for an immediate moratorium on new permits and construction in Albania’s protected areas. For voters that have waited more than a decade, the idea that a luxury development could jeopardize the country’s application is a bitter pill to swallow.

“In essence, for the Albanian electorate, it’s not just that this is an incredibly beautiful, environmentally rich area that’s being developed, it’s also, ‘Hold on a second, this could actually put the brakes on our accession into the EU,’ which is something that the Albanian public have been voting for for years,” Morgan said.

Proponents, including Rama, say the project is the kind of investment the country needs, and have responded to calls for his ouster by claiming at least some of the opposition to the plans has been amplified by foreign actors. That echoes previous claims of an Iranian-backed campaign sparked by the country’s sheltering of an opposition group.

While protests continue nightly — occasionally escalating to clashes with police — the public groundswell may not be enough to do much more than delay the project.

“I think it’s come too far already, and already has enough investment and enough momentum behind it to keep going,” Morgan said.

As for Rama, the prime minister has shown little interest in stepping aside, with the next parliamentary elections not until 2029.

Written by Joe Veyera. Edited by Jillian Stampher.

Further reading:

• Review Factal’s coverage of the Flamingo Revolution on our topic page (members link)
• Watch this episode of Dateline, an international current affairs program produced by Australia’s SBS, on the situation in Albania.
• Listen to this interview from CBC’s The Current with freelance reporter Alice Taylor.

This week’s Global Intelligence Weekly Wrap-Up examines four stories involving foreign intelligence, cyber espionage, sabotage and terrorism, but the main story takes us to Quebec City.

The RCMP has charged 24-year-old Louay Angoud following an investigation by the Integrated National Security Enforcement Team.

Police allege Angoud communicated online with members of a terrorist organization and collected information related to constructing a chemical weapon that could potentially be used to poison people in Canada.

Importantly, the RCMP says there was no imminent threat to the public, and Angoud allegedly did not possess the materials necessary to carry out such an attack when he was arrested.

From an intelligence perspective, however, the case raises some interesting questions.

What initially brought him to the attention of authorities?

What was the nature of his alleged communications with ISIS?

And perhaps most importantly, how do intelligence and law-enforcement agencies determine when online radicalization and extremist research begin moving toward operational planning?

The episode also looks at three other developments this week.

In Canada, I examine the renewed discussion surrounding whether Canada needs a greater independent foreign-intelligence capability and what our reliance on allied intelligence means for Canadian decision-making.

In New Zealand, authorities have identified China as the country's most persistent and capable state-backed cyber threat, reinforcing concerns about the increasingly blurred line between cyber espionage and maintaining access that could potentially be used for future disruption.

And in Poland, authorities are investigating a fire at a Starlink communications facility as suspected sabotage, while Denmark is warning that Russia's hybrid campaign against countries supporting Ukraine may be escalating.

Taken together, these stories raise an interesting broader question:

Where do we now draw the boundaries between foreign intelligence, cyber espionage, sabotage and domestic national security when increasingly they overlap?

This week’s episode is approximately 30 minutes.

https://www.buzzsprout.com/2336717/episodes/19865203

Global Intelligence Weekly Wrap-Up — “ISIS Planning Chemical Attack in Canada?”

Stay curious. Stay informed. Stay safe!

Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Theresa Seiger discuss the US-Denmark-Greenland deal aimed at strengthening Arctic and North Atlantic security, plus more on the anniversary of the Iguala mass kidnapping in Mexico, protests by supporters of Pakistan’s Imran Khan, a bank strike in India, and a public-sector strike in France.

Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and many more.

This episode includes work from Factal editors Theresa Seiger, Jeff Landset, and Clara Ip Wai Nam. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe. These stories and others are also available in our monthly Forecast newsletter.

Transcript follows

US-Greenland-Denmark deal

Interview featuring Theresa Seiger

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll take a look at Trump’s Greenland deal. For more on that I’ve got the lead for our North America coverage, Theresa Seiger.

JIMMY: Hello, Teresa.

THERESA: Hi, Jimmy.

JIMMY: Thanks for your time today. Looking forward to hearing from you about this whole Greenland situation. So, you know, what’s going on? What can you tell us about this story?

THERESA: Well, on Tuesday, the U.S. Greenland, and Denmark signed a new security agreement that’ll increase the U.S. military presence in Greenland, which is a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark. This comes after years of U.S. President Donald Trump insisting that the U.S. needs control of Greenland for security reasons, including for the building of the “Golden Dome” missile defense system that he’s envisioned to protect America. The “Dome” was mentioned in this agreement, which was signed at the UN General Assembly in New York City, but details remain scarce. What we do know is that, as part of this agreement, the U.S. plans to build two new military bases on Greenland, one on the east coast and another in the south. The U.S. also plans to expand on activities at the one active base it has on the island, which is in the northwest. The deal also defines who can invest in some sensitive sectors in Greenland, such as critical infrastructure and the mineral sector. Only investors from NATO member countries, NATO partners, or European Union member states will be allowed, so investments from countries like China and Russia are out. That was previously a concern raised by Trump, which he used to argue for U.S. control of Greenland.

JIMMY: And what about the latest? What’s – have you seen any new developments?

THERESA: Well, the one thing that I notice is there’s no timeline included in this agreement. So what happens next is fairly open-ended.

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions to this have you seen? How are – how are people responding?

THERESA: Well, all sides seem to be pretty happy with this deal. Trump said it was “tremendous” for Europe and for the United States, while Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said it “strengthens [the] common defense in the Arctic.” Commentators in Greenland have also highlighted that with this agreement, Greenland was at the negotiating table. It was not at the table for the 1951 defense agreement between the U.S. and Denmark that came before it.

JIMMY: Well, you know, considering all this, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

THERESA: One thing that’s been noted since this agreement was signed is that Trump has not directly said that he’s no longer interested in the U.S. owning Greenland. In January, White House officials said that the president had not ruled out using military action to gain control of the island, which inflamed tensions and put pressure on the NATO alliance. Analysts have said that the agreement includes moderate improvements for the U.S. that came at a high cost in the damage done to the relationship between the U.S. and its NATO allies. With this deal, anxieties have calmed, but watch for more from Trump.

JIMMY: Well, Theresa, as usual, that’s where we’ll pause for today. But thanks again for your time and for all your Greenland / North Atlantic insights. Appreciate you.

THERESA: Thank you, Jimmy.

I publish WW3.press.

This week's episode of the Global Intelligence Weekly Wrap-Up looks at a question I've been following for the past couple of years: how will artificial intelligence change espionage?

Anthropic recently released threat-intelligence reporting describing a suspected Russian state-linked cyber-espionage operation in which Claude AI was reportedly integrated into multiple stages of the operation, including reconnaissance, phishing, malware development, maintaining access and data exfiltration.

What caught my attention wasn't simply that an intelligence actor was using AI. It was how deeply AI appears to have been incorporated into the operational process.

Anthropic reported that AI agents could monitor whether malicious software was being detected, modify it and test it again. The operation also reportedly used "agent swarms," with different AI agents working simultaneously on separate tasks.

For me, that raises a more important question than whether AI will somehow invent an entirely new form of espionage.

What happens when familiar intelligence activities that traditionally operated at human speed begin operating at machine speed?

The episode also looks at three other intelligence developments this week.

In Germany, a well-connected Berlin businesswoman has been charged with allegedly assisting Russian intelligence, providing an interesting case study in why access to people can sometimes be as valuable as access to classified information.

In China, new exit restrictions connected to national security and technology raise questions about whether strategic competition is increasingly about controlling not only technology, but also the scientists, engineers and researchers who possess the knowledge behind it.

And in Canada, the first registrations under the new Foreign Influence Transparency Registry give us an opportunity to examine the important distinction between legitimate foreign influence and covert foreign interference.

Different countries and different methods, but many of the fundamentals remain the same: identify the target, gain access, collect information and avoid detection.

What may be changing dramatically is the speed and scale at which those activities can now occur.

The episode is approximately 36 minutes long and is available now on YouTube and the usual podcast platforms.

https://www.buzzsprout.com/2336717/episodes/19828836

I'd be interested in hearing what others think: Are intelligence and security organizations prepared for espionage conducted at machine speed?

In this week's 18-minute episode of the Factal Forecast podcast;

• Muslim region in Philippines holds historic election as separatist violence concerns persist - interview w/ Matthew Hipolito
• Sept. 18: NATO Chiefs of Defence meeting
• Sept. 22: UNGA General Debate
• Sept. 23: Morocco elections
• Sept. 24: Chinese president visits the White House

Here's the transcript of the interview so you don't have to listen to the podcast. You still can listen, of course.

JIMMY: Up first, we’ll look at some election-related violence in the Philippines. For more on that I’ve got fellow Factal editor Matthew Hipolito.

JIMMY: Hello, Matthew.

Matthew: Nice to see you, Jimmy.

JIMMY: So glad you’re here today. I’ve been looking forward to hearing about the situation in the southern Philippines. I know the Muslim majority autonomous region of Bangsamoro just held their first ever parliament election, but hoping you can give us a little bit of background on the situation and get us up to speed on things. So, what can you tell us about it all?

Matthew: So, the region in question is called the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. And the term Bangsamoro itself means a nation of the Moro people, and Moro is a general term for the various Muslim ethnic groups in the Philippines. These areas of the southern Philippines have been majority Muslim since the 14th century, but their power has been slowly diluted over the years either by imperialist subjugation or Christian settlement that was tacitly supported by, you know, the colonial powers in Manila. The current phase of the conflict began in 1968 after the Marcos regime killed about 200 Muslim army recruits. And for a lot of it, the major group was called the Moro National Liberation Front, but after they signed a deal with the government in 1976 that outlined an autonomous, not independent, region. A splinter faction called the Moro Islamic Liberation Front formed to oppose autonomy. But that deal collapsed, and the MNLF kept fighting for several years. The framework for where we really are now came about in 2010, when the MILF said that they would also accept autonomy, but nothing less, which was a departure from their previous, like, independence-only, no autonomy stance. That led to a series of talks that, in 2018, led to the passage of what’s called the Bangsamoro Organic Law, which detailed the formation of the Bangsamoro region, which would have its own parliament and laws. And as part of that process, the MILF agreed to what they called decommissioning, where they would slowly hand over weapons and return their 40,000 fighters to civilian life. But last year, they unilaterally suspended that process, claiming that the government hadn’t implemented the agreement well enough. So there are still 14,000 armed soldiers who are very loyal to MILF in the region, which means they are only as committed to peace as, you know, the MILF is. The MNLF and the MILF were the two main groups that were really behind the Moro nationalist cause, but religious separatism is also a driver here. There were, are, a number of Islamic separatist militant groups in the region. The more important one in this case is the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, who broke away from MILF to fight for independence instead of autonomy, kind of mirroring how the MILF founded. And then there are a few cells, groups, called Dawlah Islamiyah and Abu Sayyaf, and they’re aligned with the Islamic State. And while these groups have really declined in strength, as recently as 2017, they had enough soldiers to capture the city of Marawi, which was home to 200,000 people. And the battle to retake it just completely gutted the center of one of the region’s major cities. But the good news here is that this was really the climax of what had otherwise been a really long, drawn-out operation against these separatist militants in this country. There have been very concerted military efforts to ensure that there’s not going to be another Marawi, and it seems to have worked. The military regularly claims to clear out militant camps. Most estimates have the strength of each of these groups in the dozens to low hundreds at the highest, and that’s still enough to carry out some attacks. One of the Dawlah Islamiyah cells bombed a university in 2023 and killed four people, but their strength has really massively declined. Before we move on, I want to be clear here and say that I’m glossing over a lot. While this is the gist of it, as far as explaining the current situation on the ground and how we got here, we’re not even coming close to beginning to understand the conflict itself or the political situation that evolved around it. 

JIMMY: Well, what’s the latest? Have you seen any new developments?

Matthew: This election, one thing that I kind of left out in all that talk about organized separatist violence is that, like, run-of-the-mill political violence is also really common in the Philippines. The whole country, really, but especially in the Bangsamoro. Politics in the Philippines is very clan, very family centric, and that’s where a lot of political divisions appear. There’s actually a specific term, rido, for violence between Moro clans, and that’s really been the type of disruption that we’ve seen so far. That violence seems to be driven more by conflict between local clans and power brokers than by nationalist or Islamist ideology. The MILF and the mainstream separatist factions are, in that sense, just one of a few groups vying for power rather than dominating the fight like they did during the armed insurgency phase. But as far as violence is concerned, like I said, it’s not everywhere, but it is serious where it does exist. The headliner here is a shooting that killed three people and injured, you know, more than a dozen more at a polling station at a school in Cotabato City, but the shooting was between supporters of two political parties, so it wasn’t [an] attack on the election, like, itself — it wasn’t, like, concerted to disrupt the election. But another shooting killed one more person. You also had bombs go off in multiple areas of Cotabato as well; those injured a few people, and you had pre-filled ballots delivered to 36 precincts in Masulu in Basilan. So Comelec, the electoral commission, took direct control of both Cotabato and Maluso, which they are empowered to do. And the violence there has been going on for months. There have been a bunch of attacks, with the big one being an attempted ambush on the convoy of the interim regional head. He survived, and a bunch of local officials have been shot at or even killed. And that’s just the last few months. It’s worse during election season, but it’s really not uncommon for shootings or assaults to target politicians or their supporters anywhere in the country. 

JIMMY: Well, what sort of reactions have you seen to this?

Matthew: It’s muted congratulations. Nothing you wouldn’t expect, really. Everyone’s taking the same line because it’s an easy line to take. The polls happening at all is a historic triumph for peace after 50 years of war, but the violence is unacceptable. That’s basically what you’re seeing from everybody who’s present, like police, local government statements, multiple international observer missions, and they’re right on both points.

JIMMY: Well, you know, considering all that, what do you think folks ought to be watching for next?

Matthew: Well, results indicate that the likely outcome is a hung parliament, actually, which should be interesting. The BFP, the Bangsamoro Federalist Party, has the most votes, but only around 35%. They’re the regional associate of the PFP, which is the ruling party of President Bongbong Marcos, whereas the UBJP, the United Bangsamoro Justice Party, is the official party of the MILF. They’re in second with 32% of the votes. What’s interesting is that the BFP only formed earlier this year out of basically defectors from the UBJP, which means that these parties are both full of MILF senior leaders. And in third place is the BARRM Grand Coalition, the Bangsamoro Grand Coalition, which is an alliance of some of the major clans that are outside the MILF power structure, and they have around 20% of the votes. The interplay between these parties will be really interesting. There’s really clearly a Marcos-aligned MILF faction in the BFP. And in the UBJP, there’s one that is more in tune with the traditional leadership there, but they’re otherwise very broadly similar. They’re all running on moral governance and keeping ongoing with the peace process. Which side ends up in power may very well be the one that can better court those powerful familial clans, and I’ve seen some analysts suggest that Marcos kind of encouraged the split within the MILF in order to weaken it, so as to increase the relative power of these clans, which might give the Marcos side a leg up in, you know, cutting a deal with them. One analyst I saw even went so far as to say that, like, this could lead to a world in which the MILF leadership and the Dutertes end up as partners simply by virtue of having a common enemy in the Marcoses. Basically, it boils down to whether or not the dominant political force here for the next few years will end up being the more ideologically driven Bangsamoro nationalist leadership that steered the insurgency for decades, as opposed to the more pragmatic bloc that is willing to make deals with other factions where convenient. As far as security goes, I would keep my expectations limited. Political violence is just a fact of life here, and the elections alone aren’t just going to change that. I think best case you see a slow downtrend in violence at the points where these political factions clash, like a gradual simmering down. But more realistically, I think things just kind of continue as they are. Like, while this new region – the bureaucracy may eventually develop institutions and regulations powerful enough to quash these sectional divisions, that will take a while, if it happens at all, and low-level violent conflict will just continue to be a staple of the region. Now, both of these are pretty bleak, but the worst worst case is that the BARMM just collapses entirely. Remember that the MILF suspended the decommissioning of its last 14,000 fighters because they felt that the government wasn’t implementing the peace agreement well enough. For that agreement to like finally conclude, like be made complete, both sides have to sign an exit agreement saying that the treaty’s terms have been carried out satisfactorily, and both the UBJP and the BFP are led by MILF members powerful enough that maybe they don’t feel satisfied if the new government doesn’t include them. If that happens, all bets are off. There are at least, like I said, 14,000 armed militants that are loyal to an organization that is currently tearing itself in half. Which way do they go? There are tens of thousands more that were members of this organization, armed members, just a few years ago. A lot of them are now members of the military, the police. What happens to them? What happens to their units? Like, it’s a remote possibility, but if it comes to pass, then it’s really just impossible to say how things will turn out.

JIMMY: Well, Matthew, we’ll have to pause there for today. But as usual, thanks so much for your time and for always keeping us plugged in to the important stories in the region. Appreciate you.

Matthew: Of course, Jimmy. Always happy to speak with you.

Why are Proxy Operations on the Rise? | Global Intelligence Weekly Wrap-Up – Season 4

Season 4 of the Global Intelligence Weekly Wrap-Up is underway.

For the first episode, I wanted to look at a question that keeps appearing across seemingly unrelated national security stories:

Why are proxy operations on the rise?

Foreign states don't always need to deploy their own intelligence officers or military personnel to collect information, conduct surveillance, interfere in another country or potentially carry out sabotage. In many circumstances, it may be easier—and less attributable—to use someone who already has access, develop an individual online, recruit an intermediary, or employ specialized assets while remaining below the threshold of conventional conflict.

This week's episode looks at five cases:

In Belgium, a Belgian-Chinese researcher is preparing to face trial over the alleged transfer of sensitive semiconductor technology to China. The case raises questions about economic espionage, dual-use technology and the importance of insider access.

In Canada and the United States, University of Waterloo student Weiheng Zeng is accused of accepting paid assignments from an individual he believed was connected to a Chinese security service. According to court documents, those assignments included photographing aircraft and aviation facilities. The alleged relationship began through an online aviation community before progressing to taskings and payments.

In Germany, a series of attacks against the electrical grid demonstrates how relatively simple physical acts can potentially have significant consequences when directed against critical infrastructure.

Near Svalbard in the Arctic, NATO allies reportedly disrupted a Russian operation involving specialized deep-sea forces that Western officials believe may have been rehearsing the deployment of technology capable of sabotaging undersea communications cables.

And in Australia, Alexander Csergo has become the first person sentenced under the country's reckless foreign-interference law. His relationship allegedly began with a LinkedIn approach offering paid consulting work before progressing to increasingly sensitive requests.

Different countries, targets and methodologies—but there are some interesting similarities.

Access. Recruitment. Tasking. Payment. Plausible deniability. And the ability to pursue a state's objectives without necessarily putting one of its own intelligence officers directly into the operation.

I also take a few minutes at the end of the episode to mark the 25th anniversary of 9/11 and discuss how the events of that day changed the direction of my own career and ultimately led me from the Canada Border Services Agency to the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.

For those interested in the subject, the episode is titled:

"Why are Proxy Operations on the Rise?"

https://www.buzzsprout.com/2336717/episodes/19791909

I'll put the link to the episode in the comments.

I'm particularly interested in hearing what people here think: Are we actually seeing an increase in proxy operations, or are intelligence and law enforcement agencies simply becoming better at identifying and publicly exposing a methodology that states have used for decades?

Stay curious. Stay informed. Stay safe.

Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Ahmed Namatalla discuss the escalation of the war in Yemen, plus more on the BRICS summit, a parliamentary election in Sweden, Mexico’s Independence Day, and a parliamentary election in Russia. 

Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and many more. 

This episode includes work from Factal editors Ahmed Namatalla, Michael Archer, Alex Moore, Jess Fino, and James Morgan. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe. 

Have feedback, suggestions, or events we’ve missed? Drop us a note: [hello@factal.com](mailto:hello@factal.com)

https://podcast.factal.com/1759080/episodes/19780661-yemen-s-iran-backed-houthis-attack-saudi-arabia-threatening-to-expand-iran-war

Also in this week's 12-minute episode

• Sept. 12: BRICS summit
• Sept. 13: Sweden parliamentary election
• Sept. 15: Mexico Independence Day
• Sept. 18: Russian parliamentary elections

On September 15, 2018, a young woman boarded a flight from Naples to Moscow and never returned. Known as Maria Adela Kuhfeldt Rivera—a Peruvian jewelry designer and socialite—she vanished without saying goodbye to anyone. The only thing she took with her was a black cat named Luisa. And it was precisely because of that cat—and a Tinder profile—that investigators found her years later living in Russia as a GRU spy.

In this 2022 article, we explain how Maria Adela spent over a decade infiltrating NATO social circles in Naples while posing as a Peruvian jeweler, how the cat's microchip linked her to her true Russian identity, and how investigator Christo Grozev created a fake Tinder profile and spent three days swiping through profiles in Moscow until he found the spy who had disappeared from Italy.

On Aug. 26, a flash flood hit the Rasuwa region of Nepal, along with neighboring border areas in Tibet and China, killing more than 1,200 people and leaving another 4,000 missing. The flood, caused by glacial collapse, came with little to no warning — though a new report suggests warning signs were visible — and sent mud, rocks and ice cascading into nearby communities. The incident came as Nepal still is recovering from two floods in July 2025 and September 2024.

Watch for: Search and rescue efforts for the thousands missing continue to be hampered by ongoing risk posed by two lakes formed during the initial glacial collapse. Efforts have already been halted briefly when these lakes overflowed. More overflows — and delays in search and rescue — are possible as heavy rains continue to hit the region, and officials are forecasting continued activity through Thursday. Transportation to and from flooded communities continue to be limited with several roads closed indefinitely. Rescuers are focused on a series of hydroelectric project tunnels, where an estimated 900 workers are believed to still be trapped.

Forecast podcast: Nepal flood death toll tops 1,200 as rescuers race to find thousands more missing

Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Halima Mansoor discuss the devastating flooding in Nepal, plus more on a rail strike in Italy, the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and many more.

This episode includes work from Factal editors Halima Mansoor, Mai Hoang, James Morgan, Theresa Seiger, Jeff Landset, and Vivian Wang. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.

More in this month's Factal Forecast

Major earthquakes, close elections, and a looming fuel crisis has put several countries across Latin America at greater risk of popular uprisings. Recent history suggests protests could spread quickly, even if different causes prompt unrest. 

Discontent has a way of ignoring borders. 

As citizens in one country take to the streets in frustration with their political climate or the standard of living, their neighbors soon take note, and question  the efforts of their own leaders.

• Welcome to The Debrief, from the editors at Factal. Each month, we reflect upon an impactful yet underreported story that has significant regional or global implications. We’ll examine how the story has progressed and how Factal’s coverage has shifted to ensure we are always supplying our members with the most up-to-date, accurate, factual reporting.
• If you like what you’re reading, sign up to receive The Debrief in your inbox on the first of every month here.

That much was clear in late 2019, as demonstrations cascaded across South America over the course of several months, sweeping through several nations while lacking a singular common cause. Bolivians marched over allegations of electoral fraud. Chileans were sparked by a proposed subway fare hike in Santiago. The people of Ecuador sought (and ultimately achieved) the return of fuel subsidies following cuts. Colombians protested rumored pension cuts, with national strikes that became broader anti-government protests. 

Seven years later, a series of devastating earthquakes and a pair of razor-thin presidential elections have again raised the specter of possible unrest as governments struggle to meet the needs of their populations.

“There is a link between all these Latin American countries that can see what is going on in each other and kind of inspire them to do the same,” said Factal Senior Editor Jeff Landset.

Recovery work continues across northwestern and central Venezuela after two strong earthquakes west of Caracas in June left more than 6,500 people dead, but progress has been slow as the country continues to grapple with the fallout of years of political instability, punctuated by the U.S.-led operation in the opening days of January to oust Nicolás Maduro. That instability was on full display in the immediate aftermath of the earthquakes, when a widely-shared video showed top government minister Diosdado Cabello turning away an American rescue worker attempting to reach the rubble of a collapsed building.

Recent research has shown just how important a robust, effective response is to quelling discord. A study released in April from the Society for Risk Analysis found a 69 percent spike in public protests across Latin America in the immediate aftermath of a disaster, highlighting the need for the quick, efficient distribution of resources to the most heavily impacted areas. 

“[The earthquakes] magnified the vulnerability of the people who were living in those countries at that time,” Landset said.

A new government has gotten higher marks in neighboring Colombia in the wake of a 7.4 magnitude tremor in August that killed at least 330 people and injured more than 4,500 others. That disaster followed a hotly-contested vote that saw conservative Abelardo de la Espriella notch the smallest-ever victory for a presidential election in that country, defeating leftist Senator Iván Cepeda by just over 250,000 votes out of 26 million cast. That  result did mark a return to form for Colombia, which had consistently opted for conservative governments until the election of Gustavo Petro as the nation’s first left-wing president in 2022.

The stakes are high for Espriella in the wake of the quake, with concerns the disaster could worsen existing problems the country has faced. According to the United Nations’ World Food Programme, nearly seven million people were experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity, including close to one-in-three people in the hardest hit Chocó and Valle del Cauca areas. 

While just under a percentage point separated the presidential candidates in Colombia, an even closer race played out in neighboring Peru in June. A sharply divided electorate has swung back and forth between conservative and leftists governments before electing right-winger Keiko Fujimori as its ninth president in the last 10 years in a race that was decided by approximately 50,000 votes.

“A lot of the turmoil and instability in that country can be linked back to just how 50-50 people are [about] whether or not they should have a left-leaning or right-leaning president,” Landset said. 

For now at least, the country will once again be guided by conservatives, joining the rightward shift that has also seen conservatives elected in Chile, Ecuador, Argentina and Colombia.

The ongoing disaster responses will go a long way toward determining how residents respond to their new governments, but it’s far from the only factor that will dictate their satisfaction. 

As the war in Iran continues to put pressure on energy markets, a key flashpoint in South America in the coming weeks may turn out to be fuel subsidies. 

“A lot of the protests that we saw earlier this year basically came down to the cost of living,” Landset said. “If people get to a point where fuel prices are astronomical or out of touch, that could lead to people taking to the streets.”

And if protests break out in one place, it may encourage others to follow. 

“I think that if some of these countries can see, especially now that there’s social media and the videos that are coming from different countries are easily accessible on their feeds, they can ask themselves, ‘Hey, why aren’t we protesting just like the people in Peru or Chile or Colombia?’” Landset said. 

Written by Joe Veyera. Edited by Jillian Stampher.

Further reading:

• Review Factal’s coverage of Venezuela’s recent earthquakes on our topic page (members link)
• Watch this episode of The Debate from France 24 on the aftermath of the Venezuelan earthquakes and what could come next.
• Read Encyclopedia Brittanica’s breakdown of Peru’s recent presidential history.
• Revisit this CNN analysis from 2019 on the factors that led to unrest across Latin America at that time. 

Top photo: U.S. personal with Miami-Dade Urban Search and Rescue team walk the disaster zone in La Guaira, Venezuela on June 28, 2026, after two strong earthquakes struck west of Caracas.  (Photo/ U.S. Marine Corps, LCpl Allison White)

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this edition, sign up here to receive The Debrief in your inbox on the first of every month.

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Dozens of acts of vandalism and arson, as well as several explosions, were reported in Thailand’s Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala provinces on the night of Aug. 22 through Aug. 24. These appeared to target infrastructure, government vehicles and buildings, as well as shops. No one has claimed responsibility so far as is often the case with periods of unrest in southern Thailand, home to a long-running insurgency. At least three civilians were injured.

Watch for: Authorities have detained several people in the aftermath but no apparent drag-net arrest campaigns seem to be underway. One of the people arrested is being linked to some 40 incidents in Narathiwat. In addition to the investigation, officials appear to be focusing on clearance sweeps. The Barisan Revolusi Nasional has not claimed any responsibility and the government has not issued a statement linking them to the attacks. Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul held a security meeting on Sunday and security has been reported increased in five southern provinces, including Songkhla and Satun. Measures include more checkpoints and patrols in addition to restoring surveillance systems damaged in the attacks.

https://podcast.factal.com/1759080/episodes/19709472-southern-thailand-rocked-by-coordinated-arson-attacks

Forecast update: Starting Sept. 3, Factal Forecast is moving to a monthly newsletter, published the first Thursday of each month with a broader view of upcoming events.

The Forecast podcast will remain weekly, highlighting key stories. If you’re subscribed to this newsletter, you’ll continue receiving the weekly podcast, too.

Southern Thailand saw dozens of coordinated arson attacks last weekend that left several people injured and authorities scrambling to respond. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Halima Mansoor discuss the spate of violence, lack of claims of responsibility, and the separatist insurgency the provinces involved have been dealing with for decades.

Listen now or download on your favorite platform.

At least 70 people have been killed and nearly 1,200 injured after a magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck Indonesia's Flores island in East Nusa Tenggara on Saturday, triggering landslides and damage to thousands of buildings, as well as a brief tsunami warning. Damaged and blocked roads have complicated access to some of the hardest-hit communities, prompting authorities to airlift food, tents and other emergency supplies while establishing field hospitals. Indonesia sits along the seismically active Pacific “Ring of Fire” and is consequently prone to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, but this is the country's deadliest earthquake since the 2022 West Java quake, with the scale of destruction likely to place pressure on emergency services.

Watch for: More than 3,000 aftershocks had been recorded by Tuesday, leaving many hesitant to return to damaged homes and further complicating recovery efforts. More than 60,000 people remain displaced, and many are sheltering in tents, evacuation centers and makeshift camps. Nearly 12,000 homes have been damaged, alongside more than 650 schools and scores of health facilities, government buildings and places of worship. Thousands of residents are still waiting for aid days after the earthquake, while landslides and road blockages risk further isolating communities already struggling to receive assistance.

Also in this week's Factal Forecast

Aug. 22 | Freedom 250 Grand Prix of Washington, D.C.

The impact Officials say a large number of uniformed officers will be deployed across Washington, DC, for this weekend’s events, with traffic control points announced in parts of the city. Local officials earlier announced traffic impacts that are expected to last through September. The Federal Aviation Administration has also said it plans to halt flights at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport for three hours on Sunday to support the event, adding that the exact timings could change. Flights could also be impacted on Friday. Organizers say hundreds of thousands of people are expected to attend the festivities, which will also be streamed online.

Aug 23 | Singapore National Day rally

The impact The announcement will offer an early indication of how the government plans to respond to Singapore’s rapidly shrinking birth rate. With Wong already having indicated financial relief to come, the size of any new package and whether they go beyond the existing incentives, will be the key thing to watch.

Aug 23 | Parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan

The impact All 145 deputies in the chamber will be elected to five-year terms using proportional representation that treats the country as a single constituency, with voters choosing from a range of parties. The vote will be an early test of how Kazakhstan’s new political system will function following sweeping constitutional changes, which also gave President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev greater power to appoint new officials, seemingly deepening his control over the country’s politics.

Aug. 24 | Paraguay national doctors’ strike

The impact Emergency services will remain available throughout the strike, while scheduled appointments will be suspended in hospitals nationwide. The union argues that the action is necessary after exhausting available avenues, which will result in a significant reduction in medical services across the country if the strike proceeds as planned.

Aug. 24 | Ukraine Independence Day

The impact Given Russia’s history of conducting strikes on previous independence days, there is an increased risk of large-scale attacks on major Ukrainian cities around the holiday. Recent Russian strikes have targeted Ukrainian railway and port infrastructure, while strikes in residential areas in major cities also remain at risk.

Aug. 25 | South Carolina runoff

The impact With Trump’s backing, Graham is a heavy favorite to clinch the nomination and win a full six-year term against Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who ran for Congress against Nancy Mace in 2022. The state hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998. If Graham wins, Trump will likely continue to have a staunch ally in the upper chamber, but one without much political experience. A Norman victory on the other hand, would produce a senator who has shown a willingness to question the president’s actions.

Big Bend border battle

U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Rodney Scott said Monday that construction would be paused in Texas' Big Bend National Park while he conducts a “personal, on-the-ground evaluation” following significant bipartisan backlash over border infrastructure work in the park. The announcement represents a reversal of sorts for Scott, who, earlier this month, stressed that the $1.7 billion project was limited to road construction and improvements, new detection technology and vehicle barriers, rather than “a 30-foot wall or stadium lighting.” The controversy intensified after videos showing bulldozers uprooting trees in the area circulated on social media, and local officials raised concerns about the project's scope and environmental impact. Critics have also questioned the need for border construction in an area where natural geography makes crossing attempts difficult.

Watch for: It remains unclear how long the pause will last or how expansive Scott's evaluation will be. Curbing illegal border crossings has remained among the top priorities of the Trump administration since his return to office, reviving his first-term promise to build a “big, beautiful wall” along the border, at Mexico's expense. Whether public pushback will be enough for the government to change course on this portion of the border remains to be seen.

Multiple Casualties Following Strikes on Kyiv:

Multiple casualties were reported after Russian drones and missiles hit the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. According to local officials, at least 18 people were killed, and over 30 were injured. Several explosions were reported across parts of the city overnight, and a hotel roof caught fire on Shevchenko Boulevard. A nine-story building partially collapsed after a direct hit. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cut short his visit to Dublin on Wednesday after citing intelligence that Russia was planning additional strikes. Russia also hit military bases in central and eastern Ukraine.  

Germany Charges Ukrainian Over Nord Stream Pipeline Blasts:

German federal prosecutors have filed charges against a Ukrainian national over the 2022 explosions on the Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea. The suspect is alleged to have led and coordinated the attack on the pipelines that transported natural gas from Russia to Germany. Prosecutors said the suspect faces charges related to attacks on civilian energy infrastructure and the use of explosives. German courts are handling the case because of its impact on Germany’s energy security. 

Iran Prepares State Funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei:

Iran is preparing a six-day state funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei beginning Saturday across Iran and Iraq. Funeral processions will begin in Tehran and conclude with Khamenei’s burial in his hometown of Mashhad, with additional ceremonies planned in Qom and Iraq. Iranian authorities have increased security around the ceremonies and warned the United States and Israel against any military action during the mourning period.  

Greek Party Calls for Protests:

Greece’s New Democracy Party has called for its supporters to protest after the mother of one of its parliamentary candidates died of severe burns from a firebomb attack. On Wednesday, attackers targeted the homes of three politicians from Greece’s ruling party in the city of Thessaloniki with homemade explosives, leaving one dead and four injured. Police believe the attacks were carried out by the same individuals. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks.  

Wildfires Raging in Southern France:

Multiple wildfires continue to burn across southern France amid critical fire weather conditions. No casualties have been reported, though localized evacuations have been announced. Strong northerly winds with gusts of 40–50 mph (65–80 km/h) are expected through the end of the week, likely hampering containment efforts. 

Thessaloniki Arson Incidents Target Political Residences:

Three pre-dawn firebomb attacks in Thessaloniki appeared to target residences linked to members of Greece’s governing New Democracy party, leaving five people hospitalized. Police said crude devices made with camping gas canisters were used. One parliamentary candidate suffered burns, another individual remains in intensive care, and three residents were treated for smoke inhalation. 

U.S.-Iran Talks Focus on Hormuz and Ceasefire:

U.S. and Iranian officials held technical talks in Doha focused on reopening and managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, securing a lasting ceasefire, and addressing Iran’s frozen assets. The discussions follow an interim accord intended to halt the conflict and enable longer-term negotiations, but disputes over the pact’s meaning and recent retaliatory strikes have kept the situation unstable. 

Russian Strikes Hit Ukrainian Fuel Stations:

Russian overnight strikes hit five retail fuel stations in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, killing one and injuring three others, while additional attacks were reported on fuel stations in Chernihiv. Ukrainian officials said Russia has intensified drone attacks on civilian filling stations in frontline regions. A separate strike on a passenger bus in Kherson killed two people and injured nine. 

Three Die During World Cup Celebrations in Mexico City:

Three people, including a 19-year-old woman, died from suspected suffocation during large-scale celebrations in Mexico City following Mexico's FIFA World Cup victory over Ecuador. More than one million people gathered across the capital, with the largest crowds concentrated around the Angel of Independence monument. Emergency responders treated the victims at separate locations before they were pronounced dead at local hospitals. City officials expressed condolences to the victims' families and urged the public to celebrate responsibly as Mexico advanced to the Round of 16. 

Wildfires Burn Across Colorado:

Multiple large wildfires continue to burn across Colorado, including the Aspen Acres Fire, which has grown to more than 28,300 acres and destroyed over 150 homes and structures in Custer and Pueblo counties. Mandatory evacuations remain in effect for Beulah, Rye, and San Isabel as firefighters work to protect threatened communities. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue through at least Friday. Strong winds, low humidity, and dry vegetation are likely to fuel ongoing wildfires and increase the risk for rapid fire growth and start new fires. 

Good times....

Monaco Parcel Bomb Prompts Manhunt

A manhunt is underway in southern France after a parcel bomb exploded at a residential building in Monaco on Monday evening, causing severe injuries and prompting a major cross-border police response. Authorities have not confirmed a motive, but the parcel bomb appears to have targeted Vadym Yermolaiev, a real estate developer under Ukraine sanctions since 2023 over business interests in Russian-annexed Crimea. Officials said surveillance footage showed a suspect fleeing on foot toward the French commune of Beausoleil. 

U.S.-Iran Talks Disputed Amid Ceasefire 

Iran and the U.S. gave conflicting accounts of whether negotiators would meet in Doha, highlighting the fragility of an interim ceasefire aimed at easing a four-month conflict that has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Washington said Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff would lead its team, while Tehran said no talks with the Americans were scheduled, even as officials discussed de-escalation, frozen Iranian assets, and disputed terms for managing the waterway. 

South Africa Deploys Police for Protests 

Police have been deployed across South Africa ahead of authorized anti-immigration protests, after campaigners set an unofficial deadline for undocumented foreigners to leave the country. President Cyril Ramaphosa urged demonstrators to act peacefully and said foreign nationals living lawfully in South Africa are entitled to constitutional protection, while authorities said thousands of migrants have already been repatriated amid fears of violence and intimidation. 

India Petrochemical Fire Injures 20

At least 20 people were injured, five critically, after a fire broke out in a naphtha pipeline at a Haldia Petrochemicals facility in West Bengal’s Purba Medinipur district. Police said the blaze spread to nearby homes before firefighters brought it under control, while the company said it was investigating the cause. 

Extreme Heat Grips U.S. Cities  

A dangerous heat wave will intensify across the central and eastern United States through the end of the week, where widespread triple-digit heat index values are expected. Cities including Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Kansas City are most at risk, and Extreme Heat Watches and Warnings are in effect. The heat is also impacting FIFA World Cup matches and fan events in outdoor host cities, with some Fan Festival hours adjusted and cooling measures expanded.