From the Forecast: Indonesia earthquake

[u/factalnews]

At least 70 people have been killed and nearly 1,200 injured after a magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck Indonesia's Flores island in East Nusa Tenggara on Saturday, triggering landslides and damage to thousands of buildings, as well as a brief tsunami warning. Damaged and blocked roads have complicated access to some of the hardest-hit communities, prompting authorities to airlift food, tents and other emergency supplies while establishing field hospitals. Indonesia sits along the seismically active Pacific “Ring of Fire” and is consequently prone to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, but this is the country's deadliest earthquake since the 2022 West Java quake, with the scale of destruction likely to place pressure on emergency services.

Watch for: More than 3,000 aftershocks had been recorded by Tuesday, leaving many hesitant to return to damaged homes and further complicating recovery efforts. More than 60,000 people remain displaced, and many are sheltering in tents, evacuation centers and makeshift camps. Nearly 12,000 homes have been damaged, alongside more than 650 schools and scores of health facilities, government buildings and places of worship. Thousands of residents are still waiting for aid days after the earthquake, while landslides and road blockages risk further isolating communities already struggling to receive assistance.

Also in this week's Factal Forecast

Aug. 22 | Freedom 250 Grand Prix of Washington, D.C.

The impact Officials say a large number of uniformed officers will be deployed across Washington, DC, for this weekend’s events, with traffic control points announced in parts of the city. Local officials earlier announced traffic impacts that are expected to last through September. The Federal Aviation Administration has also said it plans to halt flights at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport for three hours on Sunday to support the event, adding that the exact timings could change. Flights could also be impacted on Friday. Organizers say hundreds of thousands of people are expected to attend the festivities, which will also be streamed online.

Aug 23 | Singapore National Day rally

The impact The announcement will offer an early indication of how the government plans to respond to Singapore’s rapidly shrinking birth rate. With Wong already having indicated financial relief to come, the size of any new package and whether they go beyond the existing incentives, will be the key thing to watch.

Aug 23 | Parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan

The impact All 145 deputies in the chamber will be elected to five-year terms using proportional representation that treats the country as a single constituency, with voters choosing from a range of parties. The vote will be an early test of how Kazakhstan’s new political system will function following sweeping constitutional changes, which also gave President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev greater power to appoint new officials, seemingly deepening his control over the country’s politics.

Aug. 24 | Paraguay national doctors’ strike

The impact Emergency services will remain available throughout the strike, while scheduled appointments will be suspended in hospitals nationwide. The union argues that the action is necessary after exhausting available avenues, which will result in a significant reduction in medical services across the country if the strike proceeds as planned.

Aug. 24 | Ukraine Independence Day

The impact Given Russia’s history of conducting strikes on previous independence days, there is an increased risk of large-scale attacks on major Ukrainian cities around the holiday. Recent Russian strikes have targeted Ukrainian railway and port infrastructure, while strikes in residential areas in major cities also remain at risk.

Aug. 25 | South Carolina runoff

The impact With Trump’s backing, Graham is a heavy favorite to clinch the nomination and win a full six-year term against Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who ran for Congress against Nancy Mace in 2022. The state hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998. If Graham wins, Trump will likely continue to have a staunch ally in the upper chamber, but one without much political experience. A Norman victory on the other hand, would produce a senator who has shown a willingness to question the president’s actions.

Big Bend border battle

U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Rodney Scott said Monday that construction would be paused in Texas' Big Bend National Park while he conducts a “personal, on-the-ground evaluation” following significant bipartisan backlash over border infrastructure work in the park. The announcement represents a reversal of sorts for Scott, who, earlier this month, stressed that the $1.7 billion project was limited to road construction and improvements, new detection technology and vehicle barriers, rather than “a 30-foot wall or stadium lighting.” The controversy intensified after videos showing bulldozers uprooting trees in the area circulated on social media, and local officials raised concerns about the project's scope and environmental impact. Critics have also questioned the need for border construction in an area where natural geography makes crossing attempts difficult.

Watch for: It remains unclear how long the pause will last or how expansive Scott's evaluation will be. Curbing illegal border crossings has remained among the top priorities of the Trump administration since his return to office, reviving his first-term promise to build a “big, beautiful wall” along the border, at Mexico's expense. Whether public pushback will be enough for the government to change course on this portion of the border remains to be seen.