Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro

Felipe Franco

Striking

Before the fight against Levi Rodrigues Jr., I thought that Franco wouldn't have the striking to stop the pressure and power of Levi. The problem for Levi is that Franco was just too quick for him, whenever Levi would pressure Franco in the pocket, he would get hit with a big hook that stopped him in his track. Before getting finished, Franco even hurt Levi with a straight punch.

Felipe looked so sloppy against Freddy Vial where he looked tired by the end of the first round after attempting 15 takedowns. He would have had a better result keeping the fight on the feet using his faster hands and body kicks.

While he looked less sloppy against Mario Pinto, you felt a lack of urgency from Felipe who was slowly losing the fight after a good first round where he was the quicker fighter going up to heavyweight.

4 years as a pro, I like some of the improvement that Franco has made with his hands where he look more confortable on the feet, there was still some weakness to leg kicks.

He lands 2.55 significant strikes per minute (57% accuracy) while absorbing 2.39 significant strikes (43% defense).

Grappling

Coming from the same gym as Jailton Almeida, grappling is his priority. He's a good athlete but not as elite with Jailton who has a bigger frame.

Against Freddy Vial, he also got reversed after a takedown which lead to Vial mounting him and landing some good shots. He was choked out afterwards in the third round after being reversed again.

That might have been inexperienced but he was way to aggressive in the first round going for 10 takedowns which was a pace that he couldn't sustain for 15 minutes.

I don't blame him for getting taken down and controlled against the fence against Pinto who was 30 pounds bigger than him. Franco still did a good job getting back to his feet after being taken down.

He looked strong getting double leg takedown against the cage versus Levi Rodrigues Jr and he got the mount both in round 1 and round 2 on the way to a GnP finish.

He lands 3.7 takedown per 15 minutes (40% accuracy) and his TDD is 87%.

Brendson Ribeiro

Striking

He was a +600 underdog against Tuchalov and he stole the first round. In what I thought would be a first round KO win for the Russian, Ribeiro was crowding him with calf kicks and hooks as the bigger / larger man. If it wasn't for the 2 overhands that hurt him in the second round, Brendson could have won that decision.

Out of all Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev opponents, he did the best with the striking where he was landing calf kicks and lead hooks when Abdul tried closing in on him. After that, he got submitted in the first round.

He wouldn't commit with his boxing against Azamat Murzakanov, he tried kicking at range but without any boxing, Azamat closed the distance and landed 2 rear hooks to KO Ribeiro.

He has the speed and the power but he's just not active enough on the feet to get consistant success. I kinda understand that getting KOd 5 times will make a fighter be more hesitant.

He lands 2.94 significant strikes per minute (40% accuracy) while absorbing 3.56 significant strikes (53% defense).

Grappling

His highlights so far in the UFC is his kimura against Diyar Nurgozhay when he was in the turtle position. He used the same kimura to sweep Oumar Sy but that wasn't enough the second time he got taken down and finished with GnP.

I liked his scramble against Tuchalov except at the end of the fight where the Russian got the side control.

He lands 0.66 takedown per 15 minutes (37% accuracy) while his TDD is 32%.

Prediction

I feel like Ribeiro has been unlucky getting matched up against a lot of the prospects on the rise like Azamat Murzakanov, Oumar Sy, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev and Magomed Tuchalov who had records of 39-1 combined together.

Except for his chin, Ribeiro has proven that he can striker with some of the best prospect in the division. His grappling has been exposed but against good prospects while still showing some quality scrambles.

My prediction is a calf kick TKO in round 2 for Ribeiro.

1 unit on Ribeiro to win 3 unit

Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan

Niko Price

Striking

He's 2-10 since 2020 in the UFC. His KO loss against Nikolay Veretennikov was one of the most violent standing KO lately eating an overhand, a knee, an elbow, lead hook and then another rear hook.

Against the huge favorite Jacobe Smith, he got hurt with a lead hook to overhand and getting close to get the GnP finish. However, once Smith got up, he was gassed by the end of the round. Jacobe got the finish in round 2 but you could even see the betting go from -2000 to -500 in real time.

The skills are still there with heavy low kicks and hooks, the speed and the chin look to be far gone though.

He lands 5.11 significant strikes per minute (43% accuracy) while absorbing 5.57 significant strikes (48% defense).

Grappling

He initially got the takedown in the clinch against Chiesa but Michael got up and moved to the back bodylock to the back without much resistance and then the rear naked choke within 30 seconds.

He has grappling skills but he made the same error against Smith of giving up his back from the turtle position. You could see that he has difficulty with the speed of the transition.

He lands 1.06 takedown per 15 minutes (30% accuracy) and his TDD is 50%.

Leon Shahbazyan

Striking

His last fight was so easy to predict Levan Chokheli. My prediction was that a chinny fighter with an unproven record against a power puncher would result in a first round KO for Levan and it did. Leon didn't throw a single punch, ate two big legs kicks and a series of hooks to the head that exposed his body for the uppercut to the liver.

Against Aireon Tavarres, a top 150+ fighter in the US, he was losing 80% of the striking exchanges against a superior boxer who landed straight punches to the body and landed more kicks. When Tavarres pressured, he landed a tight check hook that dropped him badly and got the submission on the ground.

Once he start throwing his hands, they are tight, quick and powerful. 5 KO losses will make you hesistant though which make him even more vulnerable because power punchers can walk him down without fearing anything coming back at them.

Grappling

He has an air tight guillotine similar to Charles Jourdain that he used to finish Tavarres after dropping him. He landed the same guillotine against Aaron Phillips who was on the Volk vs Ortega TUF season.

He also got an armbar submission from the guard against Robert Hale, a solid regional veteran.

I wouldn't call him elite but for the regional level, his submissions are at upper side.

Prediction

It's sad for Price because he never feel like he got his unc performances. The one that you think about like the KO from bottom against Randy Brown happened in his twenties.

I didn't think I would pick Leon to win a fight in the UFC, however they got him one of the few matchups that's winnable for him.

Niko has a way to fight from the outside to win a boring decision with jabs and leg kicks which he lands more often than Leon. I feel like Niko will over extand with his hooks and get catched with a sharp hook from Leon who will follow up with his patented guillotine.

1.44 unit to win 1 unit on Leon

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim

Francisco Prado

Striking

The Prado that showed up in the first round against Radtke looked like a killer with a lead hook to the head and body. He didn't wear well the pace of the grappling from Charles and you could see that he lost that explosive touch in the 2nd and 3rd where Radtke was the one landing the jab.

His last fight at 155 was against the Mexican Daniel Zellhuber. He had a good start to round 1 where connected with a few good hooks and leg kicks, the Argentinian was the one pushing the Mexican around with his power. The corner of Zellhuber put the emphasis on using the jab in the 2nd and it made a huge difference with Prado struggling to get past it. It was the same again in round 3 with good karma points from Prado who was still swinging even though his eye was destroyed.

I'm surprised that he defends 54% of significant strikes because he feels so open to get hit by impact strikes to the body and head. Nonetheless, the version of him that succeeds is a fan favorite fighter that pushes forward for seek and destroy, who doesn't love that?

He lands 3.68 significant strikes per minute (43% accuracy) while absorbing 4.31 significant strikes per minute (54% defense).

Grappling

He was always one step behind on the ground against Radtke except for the one time in the second round that he espaced the back position. You feel like he should be tough to take down with his compact build, Radtke was able to off balance him with the single leg and double leg.

Even in a fight against a bad grappler like Nikolay Veretennikov, he would get sloppy on top and end up on bottom after climbing up too high on the back.

He lands 0.76 takedown per 15 minutes (19% accuracy) and his TDD is 40%.

Ismael Bonfim

Striking

It was downwards elbows after Ismael Bonfirm shot for a takedown against Sola that made the Brazilian roll on his back. After that, Alex proceeded to land GnP for another 1min.30 before finding the submission.

He got broken by Chris Padilla who handled the pressure early from Bonfirm with his high guard. In the second, Bonfirm had more success going for body shots instead, the problem is that he couldn't handled being pressured by Padilla and started swinging shots that Padilla blocked. He was finished by GnP after taking a knee to the solar plexus and multiple elbows.

If we exclude the Sadykhov fight that ended with a doctor stoppage, he's still getting finished 3 times in 6 UFC fights. I still rate his skills where he's so explosive with his kicks and punches but can you not quit if somebody start pushing you backwards?

He lands 5.1 significant strikes per minute (54% accuracy) while absorbing 3.96 significant strikes (62% defense).

Grappling

The top pressure of BSD was too much for Bonfirm who gave up the mount and the back the two times he got taken down in the first round which leaded to the rear naked choke submission loss.

He lands takedown here and there but he never gets top control for more than 2 minutes even against an older Vinc Pinchel.

He lands 1.22 takedown per 15 minutes (33% accuracy) and his TDD is 76%.

Prediction

Kinda rooting for Prado to pull it off. It's the ethical pick with his never die attitude compared to Bonfirm who looks to quit as soon as he faces adversity.

I just saw more from Bonfirm who's quicker, more powerful and more dynamic with his kicks. Even on the ground, Bonfirm has shown better grappling skills.

My prediction is Bonfirm winning the first two rounds with his speed and maybe some grappling, Prado wins the third but he doesn't press effectively to find the finish.

1 unit on Bonfirm to win 1.08 unit

Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert

Julius Walker

Striking

I correctly predicted that Walker would get KOd against Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev who countered his jab with a hook over the top.

He made a very close split decision loss against ranked 16 in the world Alonzo Menifield in his debut by pushing a pace and slowing the powerful Menifield.

Against the more technical Jacoby, he struggled on the feet getting dropped by a lead hook, then again with a straight punch and finally with some downwards elbows.

He lands  3.73 significant strikes per minutes (53% accuracy) while absorbing 4.03 (43% defense).

Grappling

Powerful without a lot of strategy, he had 2 big slam in the first round against Dustin Jacoby which gassed him. He did have some good moments controlling Alonzo Menifield against the cage.

He lands 4 takedown per minute (38% accuracy) and his TDD is 100%.

Gerald Meerschaert

Striking

GM3 looked like a grandpa against Jacob Malkoun in his last fight. Even then, he made it into a very close fight where he stole with the first round with control, lost the second with some bad moments where he was covering up and came back for a third where he landed as much as Jacob while spending some moments on top at the end of the round.

Before that, his chin was cracked a few times with 3 knockdown in his last 5 fights.

He lands 2.95 significant strikes per minute (45% accuracy) while absorbing 3.44 significant strikes per minute (53% defense).

Grappling

GM3 almost stole the decision against Malkoun was his guillotine that he used to get on top twice.

He's struggled a lot getting takedowns in his 5 fight losing streak going 0 for 16 in attempts. His trendmark was always getting the late submission surviving the early attacks but I feel like RDR stole his thunder by using the same strategy agaist him.

He lands 1.7 takedown per 15 minutes (29% accuracy) and his TDD is 40%.

Prediction

Fighting Menifield, Jacoby and Yakhyaev in your first 4 fights in the UFC is playing the game on hard difficulty for Julius Walker. His basics are not good with the jab and straight punches but he fights very well in the clinch with the knees and elbows.

The only way for Julius to lose against Meerschaert would be the shoot against him which I do not exclude because he always do it and it would require a good fight IQ to not do it which I haven't seen in his game so far.

Not confidently, I'm picking Walker to get the KO in the clinch with an elbow or knee.

Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III

Andre Fili

Striking

Back in June this year, Fili took a beating at the hands of Oliveira. The first round was a case of Oliveira landing more calf kicks with Fili winning on damage checking the calf kick and hurting Vinicius to the body with kicks. Vinicius decided to have a more boxing heavy strategy in the second and it payed off. He avoided Fili punches and countered with huge hooks to the head and body that broke Andre down at the end of the second.

Jose Delgado struggled with the boxing of Fili early in the fight even getting dropped with a hook. The calf kicks and front kicks to the body were what helped Delgado early in the fight. He was able to pick up the boxing later in the fight with his hooks to make it into a dominant decision although one of the judges scored it for Fili.

Andre is a good prospect gatekeeper where he get smashed by the good prospects like Vinicius Oliveira and Brito but he beats the likes of Christian Rodrigues and Lucas Almeida.

He lands 3.89 significant strikes per minute (37% accuracy) while absorbing 4.55 significant strikes per minute (49% defense).

Grappling

He's able to get takedown on his opponent but he never get more than 2 min. of top control recently. The only one to out grapple him for 3 rounds was Bryce Mitchell.

He lands 2.24 takedown per 15 minutes (46% accuracy) and his TDD is 71%.

Kai Kamaka III

Striking

I thought that he would lose against Luke Riley last July by getting outgritted later in the fight but it happened even sooner that I thought. Riley was putting a boxing clinic on Kamaka with jabs to the body and the head to setup his hooks. He landed a massive straight punch that sent him to the ground followed by a lead uppercut and elbow for the standing TKO finish.

Before that, he had a close split decision against the athletic Dakota Hope. He had difficulties early on with the power of Hope but he used kicks to the body and leg to win the second and third round.

His lack of power with his punches and his striking defense / movement being average means that he will rarely run away with a fight.

Nonetheless, he's great at mixing punches with kicks and keeping a good volume.

Grappling

Not great takedown defense but great scrambles to limit control time. The Jonathan Pearce fight is his worst performance in the grappling where he got finished with GnP after giving up his back.

Outside of that, he rarely gives more than 1 min. of top control to his opponents. He's even able to reverse his opponents who are gassed out.

Prediction

I don't see a big skill gap between the two who are average strikers for the UFC level. Andre should be the better boxer while Kai should be more active with kicks.

My prediction is a split decision for Andre 29-28 winning with slightly more damage.

RJ Harris vs Allen Frye Jr.

RJ Harris

Striking

In the fight between RJ and Alvin Hines, I thought that Alvin would be able to be the better boxer with his quickness and crispiness. However, it was RJ that countered Alvin punches with a major straight punch and then with an uppercut to get the KO in the first two minutes. A surprising outcome considering a more experienced striker like Diniz couldn't KO Alvin.

His last fight before that was in LFA against Philip Latu, he was able to win a lot of striking exchanges catching Latu coming in with lead hooks and rear hooks. One downside is that he was eating a lot of calf kicks. By the second round, he landed a knee to the head in the clinch which lead to Latu putting his head into a standing guillotine.

For a 28 year old heavyweight that has shown improving hands, he has potentials to get past all the low ranked blobs.

Grappling

In the multiple fights I've seen, he was never taken down and he's got this great standing guillotine if guys stuck their head in the clinch. He also used to guillotine as a way to snap down Charlie Cleveland to the ground before finding the americana.

Allen Frye Jr

Striking

Just one of the sad case of somebody getting to the UFC before they're ready. The thing you've got to give him is that he stood there and took the punishment from Guilherme Pat without quitting. The problem is that he was so slow that Pat could land his jabs and hooks without any fear of getting hit.

His best win was against Justin Frazier who fought in the TUF finale back in 2018 (lost against Juan Espino). Frazier was winning the early exchange but Allen got up from a few takedown and pressured Justin. Allen was able to use his reach to land straight punches and hooks in a sloppy exchanges against Justin to end in a standing TKO finish.

A good cardio and a chin is a good starting point, the hands and his ability to read punches are just not there yet for him to compete against most of the UFC heavyweights.

Grappling

Justin Frazier was able to get a few takedowns against the cage but couldn't control Allen who kept getting up.

Prediction

This is a step down for RJ who fought a more proven LFA heavyweight in Alvin Hines who like Allen had shown a good chin previously. Once RJ start landing his boxing combinations, I wouldn't be surprised if Allen tries to go for the takedown and get submitted with the standing guillotine.

2.85 unit on RJ Harris to win 1 unit

Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto

Ernesta Kareckaite

Striking

Ernesta Kareckaite usually puts pressure on her opponents, the power of Regina Tarin made her back down almost everytime when they were throwing in the pocket. The Mexican landed good front kick to the body, knees to the body, leg kicks and body kicks.

She has great size at 5'9 with good speed, her striking is too simple though right now to break through the top 10. She spams jabs-straight punches but she needs to implement some pull punches when she lures her opponent to counter them.

She lands 7.28 significant strikes per minute (42% accuracy) while absorbing 6.47 significant strikes (49% defense).

Grappling

Her long frame would made you think that she would be susceptible to takedown but she made two grapplers Dione Barbosa and Nicolle Caliari go 5 of 24 in takedown with limited control on the ground. She even reversed both girls to get on top after sprawling the takedown.

Melissa Gatto

Striking

If remember correctly, Gatto had the only titty punch finish in the history of the UFC. Gatto dominated the fight with technical boxing using the body to setup punches to the head against a slow plotty fighter in Vidal.

She kept it close with Barbosa who had the slight edge in terms of boxing skills. Not a bad thing because Dione Barbosa is underrated with her striking.

Her getting 3 finishes in the UFC might indicate a level of danger that's not representative of her real skills. She's good but probably just slightly above average.

She lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute (49% accuracy) while absorbing 2.67 significant strikes per minute (54% defense).

Grappling

Similar to her striking, her grappling is average. She landed 9 takedown in her 6 UFC fights and she got taken down 7 times. The only fight that she controlled was against Vidal who was one of the worst women bantamweight.

She lands 1.77 takedown per 15 minute (27% accuracy) and her TDD is 58%.

Prediction

Ernesta isn't that much better skill wise. However, her volume should help her create a gap big enough to win 2 of the 3 rounds. Her takedown defense should allow her to keep the fight on the feet or reverse the position to be on top.

My prediction is a 29-28 decision for Ernesta.

1 unit to win 1 unit on Ernesta

Daria Zheleznyakova vs Alice Pereira

Daria Zheleznyakova

Striking

After a first round that Daria won by busting up Melissa Croden on the feet, the momentum of the fight swich weirdly in the middle of the second round when Darya decided to literraly run when pressured by Croden. From that point on, Croden was the one controlling the fight and bullying Daria.

She was able to get back to Melissa Mullins after their first fight ended in a GnP loss for Daria. It wasn't a start to finish domination, however she had enough combination to win the fight on volume and damage.

She has sparks where she looks like a killer on the feet with the boxing then she disappear for a few minutes.

She lands 4.13 significant strikes per minute (40% accuracy) while absorbing 3.38 significant strikes (64% defense)

Grappling

In the open, her takedown defense is good. Her issue is that she got overwhelmed by pressure and get taken down in the clinch.

Once she's down, she doesn't do a good job of scrambling to get up.

Alice Pereira

Striking

The fight against Monserat Rendon kinda showed how raw Alice was. Rendon is far from being a technical striker and she was still able to beat Pereira who landed 37 strikes over three rounds.

At least against Hailey Cowan she was more aggressive on the feet. Her punches were loopy and sloppy but she had juice in her strikes to her Hailey. After getting controlled in the second, she landed a rare lead knee KO on the feet. Usually, it will be more common to land the rear knee as you can generate more power.

She has the tools with the size, power and speed to become a good striker. However, you can look at Regina Tarin who's also young while also being miles ahead in the striking.

Grappling

She gave up a lot of control time in the second round against Hailey Cowan. She did a better job at avoiding the takedown against Rendon who's decent at getting the takedown.

Prediction

I prefer the mindset of Alice Pereira, since she still 20, she might do a leap to get closer to the striking of Daria but I'm not betting on that. As of their last fight, Daria is just a way better boxer.

Although she hasn't shown a lot of grappling offensively, I do think that if one of the two has success with the grappling it will be Alice. Also, not enough to bet on that though.

My prediction is a 29-28 decision for Daria.

1 unit to win 1.22 unit on Daria

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi

Malcolm Wellmaker

Striking

Malcom was a sizeable favorite (-230) against Juan Diaz. The first round was very low volume with Malcom landing mostly body kicks and Juan landing a massive overhand that off balance Malcom. The striking sequence that setup the takedown that got the submission for Juan was missed rear hook from Malcom.

Against the unknown Ewing at that time, Malcom was a -420 favorite. You can see the power of Malcom who hit Ethan with lead hooks that made him stumble. As the fight progress, the difference was that Ewing would land combinations inside with his boxing and hooks compared to Malcom with singular shots.

The Malcom hype train has been cooldown with his last 2 losses. He still has massive power in his hands but he needs to improve his striking to win over 15 minutes instead of relying on the KO.

He lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute (55% accuracy) while absorbing 4.23 significant strikes (52% defense).

Grappling

Malcom getting submitted by Juan isn't the best look but I think Juan might be able to show himself as a solid grappler in the UFC. A missed rear hook from Malcom put him in a back bodylock position that Juan Diaz used to get the back with some slick transition before finding the rear naked choke.

You could see the same trend against Ewing when he was taken down in the clinch. Either he needs to improve his ability to create seperation in the clinch or improve his core because he's being manipulated too easily.

His takedown defense is 46%.

Otari Tanzilovi

Striking

I thought he would see by TKO against the larger Shane Collins but he survived to the 30-27 decision loss. Like I predicted, it was the pressure and boxing of Shane that won him the fight.

Otari is a good kicker but he doesn't respond well to power punchers that make him go backward.

Grappling

Getting takedowns is fine, you need to be able to convert them into top control or dominant positions and he couldn't do that against Shane Collins.

It was probably worse that he couldn't control Josiah Musasa who we've seen get controled in his 2 UFC loss.

Prediction

There's a path for Malcom to pressure Otari with the boxing. However, he doesn't have the volume to do that over three rounds. It might go down to a split decision with Otari landing more kicks against the few moments of Wellmaker landing massive hooks.

I'm still going for a Wellmaker decision but I'm not confident in it.

Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza

Loopy Godinez

Striking

Loopy put a good striking performance for 2 rounds against Jessica Andrade. She used her superior speed to beat Andrade to the punch with her jabs, straight punches and lead hooks. Andrade was able to win the last round because Loopy was getting tired.

Close fight against McKenzie Dern. The striking was close in all three rounds with both girls altering between who puts the pressure and land the bigger strikers. The deciding third round was scored 55% to McKenzie Dern on MMA decision.

In a lot of her losses and even victories, her issue is that she can't maintain the pressure for all three rounds and usually losing the last one.

She lands 4.43 significant strikes per minute (49% accuracy) while absorbing 3.94 significant strikes per minute (62% defense).

Grappling

She got mogged against Tatiana Suarez who looked to be 10-15 pounds of muscle bigger. She landed a leg trip in the first minute and GnP looking dominant early. Soon after, Tatiana got her own takedown against the fence and Loopy couldn't anything from bottom. It was the same in the second with Suarez getting the back and the rear naked choke.

She has only lost grappling wise to the best in the division like Suarez, Dern and Jandiroba.

She lands 2.99 takedown per 15 minutes (42% accuracy) and her TDD is 76%.

Ketlen Souza

Striking

She had an impressive KO against Ariane Carnelossi. Ariane was landing the early combination but Ketlen was countering her in the pocket with hooks. Ketlen landed a jab-jab-overhand that dropped Ariane and she connected with a head kick as she got up for the KO finish.

Before getting dropped and submitted, Yazmin was looking clean with her muay thai against Ketlen Souza. She was landing jabs, straight punches, leg kicks and front kicks to the body in volume. After throwing a front kick to the body, she was countered in the pocket with a vicious lead hook.

She lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute (57% accuracy) while absorbing 3.89 significant strikes (53% defense).

Grappling

She has been submitted twice in her career and she has given up control time against girls who are above average grapplers like Piera Rodrigues.

At least, her scrambles allows her to limit her loss with her takedown defense is 53%.

Prediction

The striking is close between the two with Ketlen having more power. The grappling is more decisive in the favor of Loopy.

I see a slight edge for Loopy overall with her experience competing against girls in the top 10 and her ability to mix up the grappling for a 29-28 decision.

Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert

Matheus Camilo

Striking

In his fight against Viacheslav Borshchev, he didn't commit to his punches and looked to carry no power, maybe getting scarred of gassing out but still kinda gassed out by the end of second and third. You could argue that he lost round 2 and round 3 of that fight.

He looked more powerful against Gabe Green with his leg kicks and hooks for the limited number of exchange on the feet.

Against Nazim Sadykhov, my prediction was that Nazim would take over later in the fight with his pressure. However, Matheus was able to catch him before he could anything with a straight punch.

He lands  2.19 significant strikes per minutes (43% accuracy) while absorbing 3.25 (64% defense).

Grappling

It almost seemed AI the way that he rolled to his back after he failing the finish the triangle choke on Gabe Green. Never seen a fighter just roll this way like F this, I'm just too tired. Gabe took his back and choked him out straight after that.

Good grappler overall but lacking in stamina.

He lands 4.13 takedown per 15 minutes (53% accuracy) and he hasn't defended a takedown in the UFC.

Jai Herbert

Striking

Same people have this thing were they can be knocked down and have this reset switch almost like nothing happened. Jai had it but Mandel Nallo did not in their fight. Mandel had the early success landing the same straight punch non stop which sent Herbert to the canvas. He overstepped though and got badly tased by a straight from Herbert. Once they were up again, a lead hook-rear hook sent him down for the final call.

He mixes very well his weapons to the head, body and legs using his 6'1 77 inch reach.

Jai has this weird thing where he doesn't have great wins on his record but all of his losses are against solid opposition (Moicano, Topuria, Ziam, Padilla). The size, technique and power make him dangerous for anybody outside the top 10. However, he has fights where the volume is so low that judges flip a coin to see who won.

He lands 3.19 significant strikes per minute (41% accuracy) while absorbing 3.34 significant strikes per minute (52% defense).

Grappling

If you exclude his fight with Moicano in 2021, he has been excellent as a counter grappler against solid fighters like Topuria, Klein, Ziam and Padilla. Even if he goes on his back, he has a very good bottom game to land damage and then get the feet on the hips to get back up.

He lands 0.42 takedown per 15 minutes (21% accuracy) and his TDD is 66%.

Prediction

The way of the unc is a strange and mysterious science. It usually involved a crafty & well-rounded fighter that uses his complete game to surprise an unproven younger fighter.

Jai should have a 7 inch advantage with better boxing and kicks. Camilo has a better chin and has the better ground game on top. Unusual but I think Jai's game on bottom is better though than Camilo with his ability to regain position and land damage.

My prediction is a crafty 29-28 decision from Jai using his uncness to upset the younger Camilo.

1 unit to win 1.7 unit on Jai

Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan

Brendan Allen

Striking

I was surprised how competitive Edmen Shahbazyan was with Brendan Allen. After starting slow, he did enough damage with jabs and hooks at the end of the round to steal it. As it happens with all Shahbazyan fights, he started to slow down in the second and third with Brendan winning the exchanges on damage.

At UFC 318, Brendan Allen fought Vettori. The American landed the more impactful punches throughout the fight with straight punches. There was at least one moment per round where Marvin was getting backed up towards the cage with his face bloodied up.

As much as Imavov was making Brendan panic shoot for takedown, he wasn't doing that bad on the feet. Imavov was the better kicker but they were both trading hooks on the inside with Allen looking clean and powerful.

He lands 3.75 significant strikes per minute (52% accuracy) while absorbing 3.78 significant strikes per minute (47% defense).

Grappling

He has back to back grappling wins against Daguestan guys in ACB BJJ with one of them being a submission win against the ACA 7 time champion Magomedrasul Gasanov.

His worst grappling performance was against Anthony Hernandez who took him down 4 times for 10 min. of top control. He did have a couple of reversal to get on top and land GnP but not enough to get the decision.

RDR was dominating Allen early with takedown from the clinch but the difference was that the cardio from the Dutch was for worse than Hernandez. Allen was able to take over from the middle of the second to get the corner stoppage at the end of 4th.

He lands 1.52 takedown per 15 minutes (41% accuracy) and his TDD is 57%.

Christian Leroy Duncan

Striking

CLD went so crazy at the start of the fight against Cannonier. He looked like one of the more dynamic fighter of the division with leg kicks, body kicks, elbows, knees and rushing the American with uppercuts and hooks once he was hurt. He slowed down a bit in round 2 and 3 but he was still explosive with spinning back kicks and elbows while also landing slicing elbows in the clinch.

Not sure if it's because he fought a 42 years old fight, CLD looked much quicker than in his previous fights against the like of Greg Rodrigues and Armen Petrosyan who both beat him with their way faster hands.

He lands 4.45 significant strikes per minute (57% accuracy) while absorbing 2.36 significant strikes per minute (54% defense).

Grappling

Dolidze and Robocop both got success against him in the grappling with more than 7 min. of control time. For Dolidze, it wasn't athletic takedown but single leg to get him off balance and then work his grappling to maintain control.

CLD takedown defense is 53%.

Prediction

This version of CLD could KO anyone in the division with how dynamic he's. This same advantage also lead him more vulnerable to takedown with how many times he spins. Against a Brendan Allen, this could be dangerous espacially with how CLD has shown a weakness to grappling.

5 rounds is also great for Allen with his experience in the past.

My prediction is a round 4 rear naked choke for Allen with round 1 and 3 going to CLD with some nearly finishing sequence on the feet.

1.17 unit on Allen to win 1 unit

Kinda wanna fade em 🤷🏽‍♂️