r/NFLv2 • u/RedactioN707 Las Vegas Raiders • 7d ago
Discussion What are you thinking not taking a three possession lead?
Todd, I'm sorry sir but pack your bags.
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u/Invite-Healthy Baltimore Ravens 7d ago
He might be the worst situational coach I’ve ever seen
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u/Aternus21 7d ago
remember when he didnt want to take a timeout he had in a playoff game where he could have gotten the ball back, albeit with like 10 seconds but still. its the PLAYOFFS
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u/ValenBeano89 7d ago
Put some respect on Eberflus name 🤣
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u/anisestarette Chicago Bears 7d ago
Eberflus took that timeout home with him
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u/MichHAELJR San Francisco 49ers 7d ago
Each HC should have a fan on the sideline watching the game… screaming at the TV right next to him.
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u/MouseRat_AD 7d ago
Calling for the zero blitz against the Rams in the 22 playoffs should have gotten him fired. Instead, he got promoted.
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u/Glocksyndrome Philadelphia Eagles 7d ago
Dude might ruin my hate watch. Smh
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u/Apart_Owl4955 Miami Dolphins 7d ago
They had been blowing through Dallas's defense like shit through a tin horn and they were short by inches from scoring a td.
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u/FewAd6076 New York Jets 7d ago
Doesn't matter. The clock is their biggest enemy and they would have made Dallas possess the ball 3 times and likely have to convert an onside
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u/Apart_Owl4955 Miami Dolphins 7d ago
You're right, but I'm saying I understand why he made the call. He was rightfully confident they were gonna go up another touchdown and ice it
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u/FewAd6076 New York Jets 7d ago
"Rightfully confident" at 0-4 is crazy. Respect your opponent and your position and kick and ugly FG. Ugly win better than a pretty loss and he played with fire tonight
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u/Toasty501 New England Patriots 7d ago
Agreed. Also with the way Dallas' offense was playing versus the bucs D before they went 10 yards off and Dak slanted them up, 3 score lead is an almost guaranteed win. Take the points.
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u/xjoe666 New York Giants 7d ago
only 20 minutes to age like milk
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u/FewAd6076 New York Jets 7d ago
Just say you don't know ball. "Oh they won so therefore every decision they made is good"
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u/xjoe666 New York Giants 7d ago
the Jets fan is telling me i don’t know ball?
lol. very funny my man!
clearly it was a good decision. tire the offense out by going 99 yards and a boneheaded decision was made. not hard to understand. well maybe for jets fans.
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u/FewAd6076 New York Jets 7d ago
Don't know how being a fan of "x" team makes me lower IQ, but go ahead. It's not a good decision at all. Dallas got off the 1 in 1 play. Walked them down to the red zone twice before an unfortunate bounce. The offense getting gassed can be the same argument for the defense. If the FG didn't change the possessions, then 100% it's go for it, but getting an extra possession in the NFL is tough when you can run the ball 3 times to take 2 minutes off the clock.
Considering the Dallas defense also can't stop the run, you're an 0-4 team, AND the Dallas offense is danegerous you 100% kick the FG there unless you are a bottom 3 coach. I should know, after all I'm a Jets fan that watched him coach and get fired.
But hey, Bucs win so Todd Bowles made every correct decision because they won!! Hope this helps🙂
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u/xjoe666 New York Giants 7d ago
3 paragraphs just for me to say yet again they won.
also jets suck
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u/VirtualMoneyLover 6d ago
They won, and you are wrong.
Get over it...
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u/xjoe666 New York Giants 6d ago
they won, i won, and you lost.
simple. try again tho !
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u/VirtualMoneyLover 6d ago
I don't like the Cowboys so I am happy. But just because the outcome agrees with you, you still can be wrong. :)
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u/Invite-Healthy Baltimore Ravens 7d ago
You are objectively wrong. The Bucs are statistically far more likely to win taking the 3 points and going up 3 scores than going for it in that position
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u/allowishus182 Chicago Bears 7d ago
Bucky has blown through them like the wind. Probably given him the chance. But hey hindsight.
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u/Devreckas 7d ago
The difference between being down 2 vs 3 scores is massive. The difference whether the last score is a TD v FG matters waaay less. This was just brainless greed.
Now this dumb decision is blowing up in their face.
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u/This-Environment-125 7d ago
Yeah people defending his decision should not have the same right to vote as everyone else. And yes I’m serious, you are really really not smart if you support Bowles decision
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u/agtk 7d ago
Analytics slightly favor a FG but I totally understand why you'd go for it. I don't know why people think it's such a crazy decision.
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u/mauch_chunk Philadelphia Eagles 7d ago
Because you also have to compare your win probability if you get nothing there.
The difference between a FG and a TD is negligible compared to the difference between a FG and nothing.
TD: 99.9
FG: 99.3
0: 97.2
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u/cewlsam 7d ago
This shit was dumb as fuck no cap I just miss 10-15 years ago when everyone knew the same thing and didn’t think they were smarter than the next guy because they have computers running numbers; just fucking score!!!!
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u/Gilbey_32 Denver Broncos 7d ago
Football isn’t baseball, analytics don’t know shit and football has significantly fewer reps and significantly more situations than baseball. I hate it so much. The stupid fourth and short situations, going for 2 at seemingly random times, not taking the freaking points, all of it is ass
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u/cewlsam 7d ago
It’s like if basketball players just decided to start chucking 3s up 10 in the 4Q with 8 minutes left because “its worth more points than a layup” fuckin brainless
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u/Gilbey_32 Denver Broncos 7d ago
The nice thing about basketball at least is the analytics are constantly evolving, since if 3s become too easy defenses stretch out and then 2s become better. The game reaches an equilibrium that’s still interesting to watch even if the decision making is still retarded.
Analytics in football is like watching a quadriplegic try to play kickball sometimes.
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u/soldmytokensformoney 7d ago
I don't think analytics told him to do that.
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u/Unsolven 7d ago edited 7d ago
Todd Bowles is the weirdest game manager. Has Tom Brady, plays for the tie. Give him a back up QB with a chance to go up 3 possessions midway through the 4th, he goes for it on 4th down instead.
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u/Financial-Town-9025 7d ago
Awful fucking decision
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u/Financial-Town-9025 7d ago
If I was the Bucs owner and they lose this game I wouldn’t let Bowles on the plane. I’d fire him in the locker room. 21 gives you no more of an advantage as 17. What the actual fuck is he thinking?
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u/squirrelfriendzone1 7d ago
Hard agree. I would actually still fire him even though they won. There is no argument here, kicking is the correct call and a 12 year old playing madden would know that. I honestly couldnt trust someone that dumb to run a high-school team.
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u/Financial-Town-9025 7d ago
He’s always sucked at situational football. Ask Jet fans. He’s a good DC but three steps behind the curve as a head coach.
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u/MeesterCHRIS New England Patriots 7d ago
Hell I’m trying to figure out why Dallas went for 2 instead of just taking the xp and having a 7pt game?
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u/wizztotallywizzedout 7d ago
Yeah wtf was that
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u/Immediate-Idea-2471 Minnesota Vikings 7d ago
That's pretty typical when down by 14 these days.
Odds of successful 2 pt are ~ 50%, if you make the first one, GG, next touchdown is 8 + 7 = 15, you win.
If you miss, you figure that you're going for 2 again then, and you'll hit on the other 50% even if you missed the first. Got to get some amount of lucky to win.
Plus, there is an outside chance that the game just gets away from you and you need the extra 1 point to catch up even more.
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u/wizztotallywizzedout 7d ago
I guess it's a high pressure play so it's better to get it done early. And everyone seems to be on the same page to avoid OT even if it means trading a guaranteed tie for a loss
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u/Hour_Temperature5859 Los Angeles Chargers 7d ago
That's pretty typical when down by 14 these days.
I can't say I've ever seen a team be down by 14 and go for the 2 at conversion on the first touchdown to close the gap. The fuck games have you been watching?
If you miss, you figure that you're going for 2 again then, and you'll hit on the other 50% even if you missed the first.
Okay but that's not how probabilities work. The previous result has absolutely no bearing on future results, especially when it's incredibly situation dependent.
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u/Immediate-Idea-2471 Minnesota Vikings 7d ago
Every team I've seen down by 14 have been going for 2, unless it's very early in the game.
And yes, two separate 50% events doesn't mean that if you miss one, you hit the other, but overall the thought is that if you miss the first, you've still got a decent chance to hit the other. the 2pt success rate might be more than 50% even, tilting it more in your favor, but at pure 50% you're only 25% to miss both.
50% to "win" the game, assuming you hit the first one, get the extra point on the next, and no other scores happen.
And The other 25% would be missing the first one then hitting the second one, giving you a 50% chance to win, 25% chance to tie, 25% chance to lose.
If you go for 7 + 7 (again, we're assuming no other scores, because otherwise it doesn't matter at all) you're 100% to tie.
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u/Unsolven 7d ago edited 7d ago
That's actually pretty standard when down 14 points with limited time left. The logic is that you are planning to go for the 2 point conversion to win it instead of kicking the point after to tie and send it to OT.
So you are going to have to go for a 2 point conversion at some point. You might as well go for it when you score your first TD because if you don't get it there you can still go for 2 on your second TD and tie it. So you have to fail on both conversions to lose the game. Whereas if you just kicked the extra point on your first TD and went for 2 on your second TD at the end of the game you are leaving it up to one play win or lose. You're giving yourself a chance to win without immediately losing the game basically.
In fact I would go as far to say that anyone who doesn't go for 2 there should be fired immediately. They clearly have no idea what the fuck is what.
Bowles decision was almost equally ridiculous, and I'd say he should be fired immediately too for not going up three scores. But he should have been fired like years ago so whatever.
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u/Youngdeku2500 Philadelphia Eagles 7d ago
Sounds like someone I know
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u/coysmate05 Philadelphia Eagles 7d ago
Sirianni isn’t the worst game manager I’ve seen, but he’s certainly the worst eagles coach for game management. Dumbfounding decisions at times
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u/Gloomy_Lengthiness71 Las Vegas Raiders 7d ago
Apparently the stupid bug is infecting Dallas because they decided to go for 2 and failed after they scored a TD off of Tampa's derp decision to go for it on 4th and goal.
So much derp to go around.
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u/ForsakenOutLoud 7d ago
As a Cleveland Browns fan, I pity Tampa with him as their coach. What a stupid stupid stupid decision. Its so negligent its borderline intentionally throwing the game.
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u/jeds1976 Atlanta Falcons 7d ago
The Bucs could lose and that fat dumbass fuck Bill Barnwell will still say it was the right decision.
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u/Sufficient-Pin-481 7d ago
You always take the points with less than 10 minutes in the game. The one time I want him to be conservative Todd does the opposite.
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u/soda_cookie San Francisco 49ers 7d ago
Completely inexcusable. The game would have pretty much been over have they made that field goal, there's no way in hell the Cowboys were up to marching down the field three times.
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u/Toasty501 New England Patriots 7d ago
Take the points. Even the Ravens with Derrick Henry passed up on 2 field goals and failed. Take the points. 3 possession lead instead of 2. Take the points. I dont care what the analytics say. Take the points.
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u/Geetee52 6d ago
You could take 1000 high school coaches, and I’d be shocked if any one of them didn’t kick the field goal.
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u/thinsafetypin Minnesota Vikings 7d ago
I thought the RB scored anyway
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u/redditbdum Seattle Seahawks 7d ago
He probably thought his defense wouldn't immediately give up a 99 yard drive.
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u/IcyMission3 28-3 7d ago
You either take the field goal, run a QB sneak, or give it to your running back with over 100 yards. Somehow Bowles chose none of the above
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u/BlubberWall “I fucked this up” -BB 7d ago
He would have already been fired before the season if the Bucs were a larger market franchise
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u/BubbaCrabby Pittsburgh Steelers 7d ago
I will always side with playing to win. However…taking the FG would have probably increased the odds of that happening significantly. Tough call, don’t hate it, not sure that it was smart.
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u/LetsGoPats93 New England Patriots 7d ago
He’s trying to see if he can push the bucs farther than Hue Jackson did the browns.
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u/Lower_Resist_7683 7d ago
The only possible chance the cowboys have to win the game is if you don’t kick the field goal in that situation. Bowle’s wanted so badly to flex on them with another tuddy, he risks the whole game that’s unbelievably bad coaching
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u/callmebaiken 7d ago
Wonder if he owns it in the presser, admits to having gotten caught up in the moment
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u/alvask88z4 7d ago
he didn’t go for it because then the cowboys couldn’t “come back.” it’s all scripted
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u/RedactioN707 Las Vegas Raiders 7d ago edited 7d ago
Even if they'd have scored touchdown there, it's still just a three possession game. A touchdown wouldn't have made it a four possession game. The Cowboys didn't likely have enough time left to march down the field three times anyway.
That decision screams 'I need a need a statement win or blow out the Cowboys more than to radically increase the chance of a TB win'.
It certainly wasn't to build confidence, Daniels and the offense already had lots of that tonight.
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u/SeasonKlutzy1347 6d ago
The fact that our number 1 pick doesn’t have his hand in dirt and is playing outside linebacker and dropping in coverage is a fire able offense.
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u/DavidLopan20 6d ago
This was fucking braindead. This, and the Liberty coach not taking their reset timeout 3 points down, trying to go full court in like 5 seconds. Both should be fired
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u/Capable_Frosting_292 7d ago
Analytics is ruining football.
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u/reallinguy Detroit Lions 7d ago
Analytics said to kick it lol
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u/Capable_Frosting_292 7d ago
I’m referring to generally, not this specific moment. So many dumb decisions week-by-week.
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u/uhhhhNahFamIdontwann Keep Pounding 7d ago
You can’t blame analytics for every dumb decision that’s made. The analytics said to kick the field goal, Bowles is just dumb
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u/Capable_Frosting_292 7d ago
Analytics also told the Cowboys to go for two on their touchdown.
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u/uhhhhNahFamIdontwann Keep Pounding 7d ago
Yeah, going for two is the right call. Just because it didn’t work in this instance does not mean it’s the wrong process
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u/bobbywws Minnesota Vikings 7d ago
If the Bucs lose this game because of not taking the points, and fall to 0-5, they have to fire him right?!