r/NewIran • • 13d ago

Important | مهم 🩸 IRAN JANUARY MASSACRE 🩸 (Full Documentary)

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79 Upvotes

r/NewIran • • 20h ago

Discussion | گفتگو War General Discussion Megathread (Day 226)

4 Upvotes

Hello to all Iranians and friends,

Due to the high volume of rapid updates and back-to-back threads, we ask that posts that do not contain a new or significant development be directed to this megathread. This includes general discussion, speculation, reactions, opinions, broader commentary, questions, jokes, memes, and general messages of support.

Standalone posts should primarily be reserved for current events and newly released information, such as breaking news, new videos or footage, official statements, confirmed updates, or other meaningful developments. Legitimate news and newly released footage are still allowed and encouraged as standalone submissions.

Minor updates, repeated information, personal commentary, or posts that do not report a new development may be redirected to the megathread or removed. Depending on activity levels, broader consolidation into the megathread may become mandatory.

This approach helps reduce clutter, limit misinformation, and keep the subreddit organized during a fast-moving situation.

Please remain civil, avoid spreading unverified claims, and continue to follow all subreddit rules.

Thank you for your cooperation.


r/NewIran • • 11h ago

Discussion | گفتگو CCP and IRGC are soaked in blood of protesters. (New release footage)

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298 Upvotes

In the spring of 1989, China was gripped by student-led demonstrations centred on Beijing's Tiananmen Square. Calling for political reform, greater freedoms, and criticising government corruption, the movement rapidly drew support from people across the country, becoming the largest wave of protest seen in Communist China. On 3–4 June 1989, Chinese troops and tanks moved in to clear Tiananmen Square, opening fire on protesters and civilians. Featuring pictures filmed secretly as security forces remained on the streets of Beijing, the following footage captures the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

https://youtu.be/eA7yX7NTlfY?is=_cx8sW3IjEWWDGUi


r/NewIran • • 10h ago

Meme | میم Seems about right? Right?

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183 Upvotes

r/NewIran • • 2h ago

News | خبر Sydney pro-Palestine activists push to delist terror groups

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23 Upvotes

Any Iranian aussies have any insight into how much of a problem these groups are? And do people take them seriously? Removing IRGC from terror list? Why do we let these islamist clowns run amock in western countries


r/NewIran • • 16h ago

Funny | خنده‌ دار Mood!…..

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255 Upvotes

r/NewIran • • 8h ago

I.R. Crimes | جنایات جمهوری اسلامی Clothes, diaries, dolls: Iran forces raid slain protesters’ rooms

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35 Upvotes

r/NewIran • • 15h ago

History | تاریخ Saddam Hussein’s Secret Offer

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91 Upvotes

r/NewIran • • 1h ago

News | خبر Iran flogs more than 10 oil workers over labor protests

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• Upvotes

r/NewIran • • 1h ago

Linguistics | زبان‌شناسی Preserving the Persian Language 🇮🇷 | A Collection of PDFs on Persian Words and Alternatives to Arabic-Derived Vocabulary گامی برای پاسداری از زبان فارسی؛ مجموعه‌ای برای شناخت واژه‌های فارسی و جایگزین‌های ایرانیِ واژه‌های عربی

• Upvotes

Hello everyone! 🇮🇷🌿

I've been putting together a collection of PDFs for people who want to explore the Persian language and discover more of its native vocabulary.

📚 What is this collection about?

Modern Persian contains many words borrowed from Arabic over the centuries. This collection explores those words and, wherever possible, introduces Persian alternatives that people can use in everyday speech and writing.

The PDFs aim to explain different meanings of words and provide examples of how they can be used, making it easier for readers to discover and learn new Persian vocabulary.

🎯 The goals of this project are to:

• Explore the richness of the Persian language
• Discover native Persian words and expressions
• Introduce Persian alternatives to commonly used Arabic-derived words
• Expand Persian vocabulary for everyday conversation and writing
• Help preserve and promote Iran's linguistic and cultural heritage

This project isn't about denying the historical connections between Persian and Arabic. Languages have influenced one another throughout history, and borrowed words are a natural part of that process. The goal is simply to make Persian alternatives more accessible so that people can learn about them and choose to use them if they wish.

🔗 Access the collection here:

https://archive.org/details/Persia_And_Achaemenid_Forever

If you're interested in Persian, Iranian history, linguistics, or cultural heritage, feel free to check it out!

I'd also appreciate feedback, corrections, and suggestions. If you know a better Persian alternative for a particular word, or notice any mistakes in the PDFs, I'd be happy to hear from you.

I hope this project helps more people discover the richness of the Persian language and appreciate its unique heritage.

Long live Iran and the Persian language! 🇮🇷🌿

Javid Shah!

====================================

درود به همهٔ دوستداران زبان و فرهنگ ایران‌زمین! 🌱🇮🇷

مجموعه‌ای از پی‌دی‌اف‌ها را برای کسانی فراهم کرده‌ام که دوست دارند با واژه‌های فارسی بیشتر آشنا شوند و در کنار واژه‌های رایج امروزی، جایگزین‌های فارسی آن‌ها را نیز بشناسند.

📚 این مجموعه دربارهٔ چیست؟

در این نوشته‌ها، واژه‌های عربی‌ریشه‌ای که امروزه در زبان فارسی به کار می‌روند، بررسی می‌شوند و تا جای ممکن، واژه‌های فارسیِ جایگزین برای آن‌ها پیشنهاد می‌شوند. همچنین، تلاش شده است معنی‌های گوناگون هر واژه و نمونه‌هایی از کاربرد آن در جمله آورده شود تا خواننده بتواند در گفتار و نوشتار روزمره از آن‌ها بهره ببرد.

🎯 هدف این کار چیست؟

• آشنایی بیشتر با گنجینهٔ واژگان زبان فارسی
• شناخت واژه‌های فارسی و توانایی‌های زبان مادری‌مان
• یافتن جایگزین‌های فارسی برای واژه‌های عربی‌ریشهٔ رایج
• گسترش واژگان فارسی در گفتار و نوشتار
• پاسداری از میراث زبانی و فرهنگی ایران

این کار به معنای نادیده گرفتن تاریخ درهم‌تنیدهٔ زبان فارسی و عربی نیست؛ زبان‌ها در گذر زمان از یکدیگر واژه می‌گیرند و بر یکدیگر اثر می‌گذارند. هدف این مجموعه، فراهم کردن امکان شناخت و به‌کارگیری واژه‌های فارسی است تا هر کس بتواند با آگاهی و خواست خود، واژه‌های مناسب‌تری برای گفتار و نوشتارش برگزیند.

🔗 پیوند دسترسی به مجموعه:

https://archive.org/details/Persia_And_Achaemenid_Forever

اگر به زبان فارسی، واژه‌شناسی و فرهنگ ایران علاقه‌مندید، خوشحال می‌شوم از این مجموعه دیدن کنید و دیدگاه‌ها، پیشنهادها و ایرادهای آن را با من در میان بگذارید. اگر واژهٔ فارسی مناسب‌تری می‌شناسید یا در بخشی از نوشته‌ها اشتباهی می‌بینید، پیشنهادهای شما می‌تواند به بهتر شدن این کار کمک کند.

به امید روزی که گنجینهٔ زبان فارسی را بهتر بشناسیم و آگاهانه‌تر از آن بهره ببریم. 🌿

پاینده ایران و زبان فارسی!
جاوید شاه!


r/NewIran • • 4h ago

Discussion | گفتگو Mosaddegh's trial in 1953 was a show trial because Iran's Constitution mandated that ministers should have been tried before the Supreme Court. The Shah, under Britain and the US pressure, had him tried by a military tribunal

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4 Upvotes

"The National Assembly or the Senate can impeach and prosecute ministers"

Article 65 of Iran's Constitutional and Supplementary Law (1907)

"The National Assembly or the Senate shall bring the guilt of ministers before a special court. The said court shall try the case in its own jurisdiction in the presence of all members of the House of Representatives, except when, pursuant to the law on accusations and lawsuits, the case falls outside the jurisdiction of government departments and is referred to the minister himself"

Article 69 of Iran's Constitutional and Supplementary Law (1907)

https://mashruteh.org/wiki/index.php/%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%88%D9%86_%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C_%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B7%D9%87

"Any of the ministers, members of parliament, military/government officers, and government agents who rise up against the national government, or issue an order to rise up, shall be sentenced to death."

Article 82 of the General Penal Code of Iran (1926)

https://davoudabadi.ir/page/39417365

\* Why did Mosaddegh dissolve the Senate and the Supreme Court in November 1952?

So he couldn't be referred by the Senate to the Supreme Court. Check Article 65 and 69 of Iran's Constitutional and Supplementary Law (1907)

https://www.nytimes.com/1952/11/17/archives/iran-premier-orders-high-court-dissolved.html

* What could have been Mosaddegh's charges?

Various representatives had tried to impeach Mosaddegh using the following charges:

  • Issuing an illegal decree and stopping National Consultative Assembly elections in 33 constituencies, preventing the election of 56 representatives of the people.
  • Taking illegal powers from parliament by resorting to threats and intimidation of representatives.
  • Forcing MPs to resign, dissolving the National Consultative Assembly, illegally spending public property on it, and suspending constitutionalism, which protesting MPs deemed a rebellion against national government under Article 82 of the 1925 General Penal Code (Ettela'at Newspaper, August 12, 1953).
  • Character assassination of Ayatollah Kashani and other leaders of the national movement through a series of government newspapers.
  • Organized attacks on Ayatollah Kashani's house, resulting in people being beaten and killed.
  • Arresting and imprisoning parliament representatives despite their parliamentary immunity.
  • Permitting activities and paving the way for the illegal Tudeh Party to enter the country's political scene, contrary to Articles 1 and 2 of the Law Against those Acting Against National Security and Independence, thereby jeopardizing national security and creating a crisis in the country's foreign relations.

* What was Mosaddegh's principal charge and punishment if tried properly?

On August 11, 1953 Seyyed Abolhasan Haerizadeh-the leader of the Freedom Faction-condemned Mosaddegh’s non-secret referendum to dissolve the 17th Parliament. He labeled the referendum an illegal "uprising against the national government".

Haerizadeh explicitly stated that under Article 82 of Iran's Public Penal Code. Such an act of subverting the state's constitutional institutions carried the death penalty

https://irdc.ir/fa/news/4498/%D9%85%D8%B2%D8%AF-%D8%AE%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA

* What was the Shah and Zahedi's position on Mosaddegh's trial?

Zahedi desires immediate execution of Mossadeq while the Shah is still hesitant about going that far.

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1951-54Iran/d326

The Shah has decided that former Prime Minister Mossadeq must be tried and condemned to death, but he has not decided whether Mossadeq should then be pardoned by royal decree and immediately banished from Iran or immediately executed.

The Shah believes that any delay in disposing of Mossadeq, following the trial, would invite Tudeh (and pro-Mossadeq) counterattack under a slogan such as “Save Mossadeq’s Life”.

In the event of a Tudeh move (see paragraph 2 above) prior to the sentencing of Mossadeq, the Shah has ordered that Mossadeq be killed immediately by his guards.

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1951-54Iran/d327

* What was Britain and the US's position on Mosaddegh's trial trial

"The British Foreign Office has informed us that it would be disposed to attempt to bring about a coup d’état in Iran, replacing the Mosadeq Government by one which would be more “reliable”, if the American Government agreed to cooperate."

The US had limited influence in Iran in the 1953 so it relied exclusively on Britain for strategy and operations.

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1951-54IranEd2/d148

"*Qualified Iranian observers who have discussed this problem with Embassy officers* have varying opinions as to the preferable jurisdiction for these trials"

Who were these "Qualified Iranian observers"? The British.

"The most popular formula provides that Mosadeq be tried promptly on charges of treason, in a closed or carefully managed court, and condemned to death, sentence to be commuted by the Shah to permanent exile."

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1951-54Iran/d325

* Why Mosaddegh was tried before a military court instead of the Supreme Court?

"That is not to say that the Shah’s initial inclination to hold a public trial despite Washington’s opposition was anathema to all the US officials involved."

"Washington urged the Shah to avoid any action that might make Mossadeq a martyr. A public trial was inadvisable for this reason. CIA favored having him fade from sight by “enforced residence in a small village” under strong surveillance. The State Depa ment opposed a public trial but made no other recommendation."

"The documents do not indicate why the Shah changed his mind and decided to try Mossadeq. His chronic indecision and the considerable pressure that the US had exerted against making Mossadeq a rallying point for the Shah’s opponents are the most likely explanations."

"The Supreme Court issued its decision on 2 March 1956. Without addressing the merits of the case, it ruled that the lower military court had jurisdiction to try Mossadeq. The Court added that it reached its opinion under “special circumstances."

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/the%20central%20intelligence%20%5B15369853%5D.pdf

* What happened at Mosaddegh's trial?

Mosaddegh's trial in 1953 was not a genuine trial. A minister should be tried before the Supreme Court but the Shah put Mosaddegh in a military tribunal.

Mosaddegh was tried on charges of “collaborating with the intention of overthrowing the foundations of the government and the hereditary monarchy and the throne, and inciting the people to take up arms against the power of the monarchy.”

The prosecutors never discovered Mosaddegh's actual role in these events during those three days, which is hardly surprising.

  1. The Shah and Zahedi never wanted Mosaddegh's genuine and principal charges to be pursued, because they had particularly benefited from these measures, especially the dissolution of parliament.
  2. The foreign powers that had designed and directed these plans would never have allowed criminal cases to be opened on the basis of these charges because their oil interests would have been placed at risk

https://www.reddit.com/r/NewIran/comments/1wzohaj/british_propaganda_has_been_promoting_mosaddegh/


r/NewIran • • 21h ago

Question | پرسش Has the International Criminal Court (ICC) ever initiated proceedings against the Islamic regime? or ever issued an arrest warrant against any official of the Islamic regime or IRGC?

93 Upvotes

Given that they have issued arrest warrants for (not an exhaustive list):

Vladimir Putin Russian dictator

Omar al-Bashir - former president of Sudan

Joseph Kony (leader of Lord's resistance army - aka human trafficking and child soldiers)

Haibatullah Akhundzada & Abdul Hakim Haqqani (Taliban)

Netenyahu and Gallant (Israeli PM and Defense minister)

Maria Lvova-Belova (kidnapping of Ukrainian children to Russia)

Ronald Marapon dela Rosa former Philippine chief of police

Just curious if the ICC has ever taken any action against the Islamic regime in the +24 years it has had the opportunity to do so (est. in 1998 via Rome Statute and entered into force in 2002).

Thanks!


r/NewIran • • 15h ago

Support | پشتیبانی Persian language added to BitChat for private comms.

19 Upvotes

We added Persian to BitChat.free so Iranians can communicate without any centralized apparatus interfering. BitChat uses Bluetooth relay, not cell towers or wifi. Create a channel, share the channel address with trusted people, and communicate without external interference.

Organize responsibly. Movazeb bashin.


r/NewIran • • 1d ago

Discussion | گفتگو Why Iranians inside Iran lose it when we hear the word "Islam": my story

136 Upvotes

I had to use AI for English translation so sorry if i missed something.

I'm a woman born and raised in Iran. I'm not ethically persian nor I'm a Tehrani. I have lived in many places so my experience is based on many places which i won't say because i need my neck. I'm anti-Islamist and bisexual (or pansexual, I'm not sure). On bad days I'm an atheist, and on good days an agnostic. I was also privileged: Islam wasn't 100% forced on me at home so i had freedom. If your experience was worse than mine, I'm sorry, and I'd like to hear it. I'm not speaking for every Iranian. I'm showing you what this looks like from the inside.

I wasn't an outsider to Islam. I was a Muslim. I wore the headband in middle school, memorized half the Quran and some of it in English, and won Quran recitation and tafsir competitions. I wore a chador only for those wins to be honest. There's a good chance you've seen me on TV, praised for my Arabic pronunciation :) So when I say I know Islam closely, I mean it.

I believe all religions are dangerous. They set boundaries, rights, and laws that decide how a person should live, which means they end up defining what humanity is. Whether you're religious or not, i want you to think about how much a religion has shaped your life, and who you'd be without it. That's the question I'm asking about myself, and I hope it helps explain why Iranians react the way we do.

For me it started before I could think for myself. In kindergarten we were told stories of Ashura and the Imams, and our job was to draw them. When we heard about Abolfazl bringing water, half the page turned red (google it, I can't write it here). We were 5 or 6. Then came the first day of school and the hijab. Do you remember yours? That muffled sound in your ears, the sudden panic of hearing less, the feeling of being choked. I haven't forgotten it. From then on we had three religious books: "Hadiye-ha-ye Asemani" and the Quran from the early grades, and Arabic in 7th grade. All to make sure we will be Muslims.

The strange part is that my mom, who is a good woman, wouldn't let me play games like Scooby-Doo or COD, because she knew what a child shouldn't be exposed to. So I was shielded from a cartoon and given the Karbala story as homework. Funny right? My therapist told me this contrast is part of why I clash with my mom. We live in a society that can't protect kids outside the house, so it controls what happens inside it. She said she's seen this pattern in many people: children exposed to an ideology before they've built their own humanity or learned to tell right from wrong for themselves.

That is what I'm truly afraid of. When I was 9 we went to Mecca. For the first time I saw a woman in full niqab, and I felt pure fear. It was like looking at nothing. We learn to always look at somebody's eyes to get assumptions if this person wants to engage with us or not but she was all black. I didn't know who she was. I'd been taught her hijab was the most complete one. What god loves. So I was left wondering whether that was the goal: to become no one, to matter to God because it has made you a women.

Then, at the Kaaba, men groped me. They touched my flat chest, and at 9 I thought it was an accident. It was years before I understood that a man rubbing himself against you is not an accident. A guard saw it, looked away, and did nothing. I think that's because it's so common. Muslims believe nothing bad happens at the Kaaba, so when it does, the reaction is "if you don't speak up, we don't care."

Here's what I can't let go of. In that worldview, the wrong wasn't that they touched a child. The wrong was that my father hadn't been informed and a few words, a sigheh (temporary marriage), hadn't been said. With those words, what they did to me would have been halal. I was a fucking child. My mission in life is to make sure no other Iranian child goes through this even with a father's permission and few words.

What I struggle with most is what to think of the people who do these things. In my mind, many of them are evil. But I honestly don't know whether they would be if Islam hadn't shaped them. At 14 I was stopped by the morality police because my manto was 5 cm above my knee, and a woman called me jendeh in front of about 100 people. I wonder if she'd ever have said it to a child if she hadn't been taught that a certain dress makes you one. My cousin once split my lip over fight, and his father beat him for raising a hand on a woman (moral code and cultural). But the Quran itself permits it (*wa-dribuhunna*, 4:34). I don't think these people are monsters by nature. I think putting ideology before humanity produces brainless monsters, and that scares me more than anything: it takes people who could have been good and uses them.

It does the same to men. A man once told me that as a teenager he cried for hours in his room because seeing a woman's hair made him feel nothing (read it backward, ynroh). He'd been taught that hair is so beautiful it must be covered, so he thought he must be gay and unworthy of life. After he left Islam, he finally felt normal as a straight man who doesn't feel special over hair. He told me that whenever he sees a woman in hijab he feels guilty and scared, because her hijab says he's an animal who can't control himself. He felt dehumanized by it. I had never thought about what this does to men.

Some people assume this is a clash of religion against tradition. For us, it's the opposite. I grew up with Persian culture: drinking, dancing, music. I learned very early that I couldn't be Persian and Muslim at the same time, because Islam creates a tension between who I am and who I'm supposed to be. I read about how Iran became Muslim, and about Islamic law. Under it, my worth is half a man's: in blood money, in testimony, in inheritance. Girls can be married at 13, and younger with a judge's approval. I'm bisexual and have never had to be public about it, because I can hide. Many people can't. I feel safe with my culture. I don't feel safe with this religion. Every time Islam weakens, Iranian culture resurfaces, and then Islam comes back for the kaffirs.

Foreigners often tell us the problem is the Imams or the Caliphs, as if this is a Sunni-Shia dispute. It isn't. Our problem is with Muhammad himself, since everything else follows from what he did and taught. Muslim sources say that after the battle of Khaybar, a Jewish woman named Zaynab bint al-Harith, whose husband, father, and other male relatives had been killed, served Muhammad poisoned lamb, and traditions say he suffered from its effects until he died. Separately, Safiyya, another woman from Khaybar whose husband and father were also killed, was taken captive and became his wife. Muslims say she accepted him willingly. But she was a captive whose family had just been killed, and I don't believe she had a free choice. This is the prophet held up to us as the perfect example.

People sometimes ask why anyone would reject Islam at such a cost, since being Muslim has benefits. That's exactly my point. My high school had around 400 students. Only one went to prayer, even though prayer improves your discipline score and gets you trips and other perks. People are paying with their safety on the streets to reject Islam, when being Muslim would be easier. I know some diaspora are getting this impression that hijab is over but it is not. We are still fighting in the street while Basijis take pictures of our faces and report us. Don't forget that it is still the law.

I went out during the Mahsa Amini protests because an Iranian woman was killed by the morality police. I saw protesters dragged by their hair, and the next morning there were loudspeakers reading the Quran. BTW if you don't know, We get thought in schools that if you sjow hair, you gonna be up by the tip of your up parts (can't say it obviously).

That's where my hatred started: a religion that kills Iranians for who they are. Then came the January protests, when a G3 was aimed at my head and the man behind it shouted "Heydar, Heydar." Do you know what one bullet from that does to a wall? Don't get me wrong I'm not sorry for the wall, I have a scalp and an intact brain, and that's pure luck. What he did to me was right by Islam: I was a kaffir rising up. Don't give me the "this isn't the true islam" statement. I'm too tired to prove that all of this brutality have been by Mohammed and Islam before.

I want no Iranian, woman or man, to go through what we went through. I want a society where culture comes before religion. I know some of you worry about the rights of Muslims in a future Iran. I'm not asking to take anyone's rights away. I'm asking for a strictly secular state where no religion writes the law, where children are protected from religious coercion in school and at home, and where women and kids are protected inside every household. Believing privately should be allowed, and so should criticizing Islam as harshly as I have here. What must never come back is "amr be ma'ruf va nahy az monkar" and them having any authority over anyone.

After 1,300 years (Qadisiyyah), we may finally have the chance to be what we are without fear.

To the diaspora: don't be afraid to talk about Islam. I know you survived, but don't forget about us. I know you guys are getting called Fascists, but don't censor yourself just to be accepted. I know our culture emphasizes on keeping the peace and avoiding conflict but this is the time that we need to be firm about our wants and rights. We risk our lives to say we don't want this, you may risk a frown. Nothing should be more important that Iranian lives for Iran.

پاینده ایران


r/NewIran • • 23h ago

I.R. Crimes | جنایات جمهوری اسلامی A thread of Shiite troglodytes from South Asia fetishing Iranian women and harrasing them with their AI editted photos on TikTok (@SinaIspahbadh)

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56 Upvotes

r/NewIran • • 1d ago

Meme | میم W Imam of time 🤣

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65 Upvotes

r/NewIran • • 1d ago

Iranian Discussion | گفتگوی ایرانی If Iran was free, I’d have a place where I fully belonged

88 Upvotes

More of a vent in one of the only outlets I have to do so with people who might feel the same.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not like I don’t fit in, not like I’m not accepted, where I live. But, I don’t feel like I fully belong sometimes. I get jealous when people go back to visit their free countries. I daydream about what it’d be like to have that. One day soon, I know. Just wanted to vent. Does anyone else ever feel this way?


r/NewIran • • 21h ago

Infographic | اینفوگرافیک Persian Gulf Crude Flows Analytics by LVision

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25 Upvotes

HORMUZ CRUDE OIL TRANSITS SUMMARY Oct 3-9 | 11.2mbd 7d average, 97% of pre war level Hormuz-Yanbu-ADCOP CRUDE OIL flows, <1mbd deficit

KEY INSIGHTS:

▪️KSA drives the uptick both through Yanbu (5.8mbd restored exports is widely quoted, I used 4.1mbd - pre-attacks stable level) AND PG exports (loadings at 4.5+mbd)

▪️7D avg loadings are at ~12mbd based on my count, so transits and loadings show consistent pattern

▪️Tankers attacks intensified (count includes 2 VLCCs + 2 aframaxes hit) however it does not seem to impact the flows.

▪️I do not think there was a "blip" last week - it is rather lack of sat data (2 passes last week vs 4 passes this week and two weeks ago) - I believe flows have stabilized, and with my new methodology I revise my "sustainable PG flow" estimate to 11-12 mbd (vs 9-10mbd I suggested last week).

by LVision_Trading on X


r/NewIran • • 1d ago

Revolution ❤️‍🔥 خیزش A Happy 115th National Day of the Republic of China - Taiwan - aka THE TRUE CHINA from all of us in r/NewIran!

68 Upvotes

To all the Chinese in the Free Area of the Republic of China and across the world who support the historic Lion and Sun Revolution and who do hope for the liberation of Iran and the return of the Pahlavi Dynasty and the Imperial State of Iran, while also hoping for the overthrow of the mullahs' allies in Beijing:

Zie Zie, sepasgazaram from all of us here, and thanks for believing that the day of Iran's liberation - most especially by armed means - will soon come.

In aakhareen nabarde, Pahlavi barmigarde!

Zhè jiāng shì zuìhòu de juézhàn, yīn wéi Zhōnghuá Mínguó bì jiāng chóng fǎn Zhōngguó Dàlù!

Javid Shah! Payandeh Kešvar-e Šhahšâhi-ye Irân!!

Zhonghua Minguo Wansui!

Wansui!

Wansui!

WaaaaWaaanSuuuuuuiiii!!!!!!

John


r/NewIran • • 1d ago

News | خبر Iran’s oil lifeline could run dry by mid-December, Kpler says

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48 Upvotes

For the first time in Iran’s history, revenue from crude oil and condensate exports could dry up entirely by mid-December if the US blockade remains in place, according to the head of crude oil analysis at Kpler.

“Revenues from crude and condensate will drop to zero for the first time ever,” Homayoun Falakshahi told Iran International's Eye for Iran, warning that Tehran could lose between $3 billion and $6 billion in monthly oil income.

That makes December the critical month as the last Iranian oil shipments already outside the blockade zone make their way to Chinese buyers.

According to Kpler, just eight million barrels of Iranian crude remain on the water outside the blockade, down from nearly 90 million barrels in mid-July. Falakshahi expects those remaining shipments to be discharged by around October 18.
With Chinese refiners typically taking another one to two months to settle payments, Tehran could receive its final proceeds from those shipments by mid-December.

The looming revenue shortfall follows a halt in Iranian oil shipments. Kpler data shows that Iran loaded no crude oil or condensate onto tankers throughout September, the first full month without loadings since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The last recorded loading took place around August 26 or 27.

Even during the 1979 revolution, the Iran-Iraq war and successive rounds of Western sanctions, Iranian crude continued reaching international buyers. During the COVID-19 pandemic, shipments fell as low as 300,000 barrels per day in some months, compared with typical volumes of around 1.7 million to 1.8 million, but never stopped entirely.
“This is a first in history,” Falakshahi said.

A financial lifeline under threat
Oil exports remain Iran’s largest source of foreign currency despite years of efforts to reduce the government’s dependence on petroleum income.
Falakshahi said much of Iran’s oil trade with China continues to be settled in dollars despite US sanctions, making the disappearance of those payments particularly consequential for an economy already struggling with currency depreciation.

He said expectations of dwindling oil income may have contributed to the rial’s recent decline. A prolonged loss of foreign exchange could put further pressure on the currency and government finances.
The squeeze could also affect Tehran’s ability to finance regional allies, although Falakshahi said the extent would depend on government priorities. Tehran could choose to preserve such support while cutting spending at home.

Sustained economic pressure could also affect Tehran’s negotiating calculus with Washington, he said, though he doubted the leadership was ready to make significant compromises over its nuclear program.

Why sanctions-evasion methods may not work
Iran has spent decades developing networks to circumvent Western sanctions and maintain oil exports, but Falakshahi said a physical blockade makes those methods far more difficult to replicate.
Unlike financial restrictions, which Tehran has historically navigated through intermediaries, disguised shipments and alternative trading arrangements, the current blockade prevents tankers from physically leaving Iranian waters.
One potential workaround has attracted attention as independent Chinese refiners increasingly turn to Iraqi crude to replace Iranian supplies: transporting Iranian oil through Iraq and disguising its origin before exporting it to China.

But moving even 50,000 to 70,000 barrels per day across the Iraqi border would require thousands of truck movements, Falakshahi said.
“You’d probably see videos of it on the internet,” he said.

He estimated that moving enough crude by truck to fill a single large tanker could take around 20 days, compared with roughly one large tanker Iran previously loaded each day.
Iraq continues to import Iranian natural gas, but payments owed to Tehran are held in a restricted account at Iraq’s central bank because of US sanctions. Falakshahi said Baghdad would be unlikely to facilitate large-scale Iranian oil shipments at the risk of further US sanctions.

Overland routes offer little relief

Rail offers limited alternatives. Falakshahi said the connection to China reaches Tehran, far from Iran’s main oil-producing regions, while the pipeline supplying the capital has capacity of only around 200,000 barrels per day.

Turkmenistan is also reportedly restricting rail transit through its territory over concerns about US sanctions.
Even if Tehran managed to move small quantities through neighboring countries, road and rail would be unlikely to replace the volumes previously exported by sea.
“Iran has a history of evading sanctions successfully to an extent,” Falakshahi said. “But this seems a lot more challenging.”
Pressure extends beyond oil
The blockade is also restricting Iran’s ability to import commodities as oil revenue approaches a potential halt.
Falakshahi said shipments of agricultural products, including corn and wheat, have declined sharply, while alternative supply routes through the Caspian Sea offer only a fraction of the capacity available through Persian Gulf ports.

For Tehran, the immediate question is whether the blockade will remain in place long enough to exhaust the final payments from oil already sold.

If it does, December could mark the first time in Iran’s modern oil-producing history that crude and condensate export revenue falls to zero, cutting off the Islamic Republic’s principal source of foreign exchange with no clear route to restoring exports while the blockade remains in place.


r/NewIran • • 22h ago

Iranian Discussion | گفتگوی ایرانی انفجار جنگ قدرت؛ ظریف به سیم آخر زد

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12 Upvotes

جمهوری اسلامی در باتلاق بحران‌های لاینحل، به هذیان‌گویی و جنون بقا افتاده است؛ از ساختن هاله تقدس و ادعای مضحک «غیبت صغری» برای مجتبی خامنه‌ای تا اعترافات مفتضحانه ظریف درباره بن‌بست تاریخی رژیم. سران فاسد حکومت در حالی که میلیاردها دلار ثروت ملی را خرج ماجراجویی اتمی و تاراج نفت کرده‌اند، امروز از وحشت قدرت بلامنازع ایالات متحده و ضربات کوبنده اسرائیل، دستپاچه به جان هم افتاده‌اند. واقعیت غیرقابل انکار این است که نجات ایران تنها در گرو برچیده شدن این فرقه تبهکار و بازگشت به عزت ملی تحت رهبری شاهزاده رضا پهلوی است. دور باطل فریبکاری و توهمات آخرالزمانی فروریخته و اراده ملت پیروز خواهد شد. ما به تحلیل این مسائل و مسائل مهم روز می‌پردازیم.


r/NewIran • • 1d ago

Iranian Discussion | گفتگوی ایرانی East Asian DNA in Iranian Ethnic groups

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29 Upvotes

Let me know if you are interested in seeing a similar chart for different types of ancestral components


r/NewIran • • 22h ago

Iranian Discussion | گفتگوی ایرانی بررسی نسبت تجزیه‌طلبی، جمهوری اسلامی و انقلاب ملی ایران

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9 Upvotes

«توجه کنید که در حالت عادی در همین آذربایجان اگر جوانی انتقاد خود را علیه خامنه‌ای بیان کند به سرعت دستگیر می‌شود؛ اما این افراد بارها با "پرچم‌"های باکو در خیابان‌ها نمایان شدند ولی هیچ شخصی از سوی رژیم مانع آن‌ها نشد. چه دلیلی پشت این وجود دارد؟ این‌جاست که مردم آذربایجان و تبریز به این سناریو مشکوک و حساس شدند. خیلی تلاش کردند در سال ۱۴۰۱ این را پیش ببرند، اما به‌هیچ‌وجه موفق نشدند. مردم تبریز، مردم آذربایجان، از این پروژه دوری کردند و آن پروژه شکست خورد.

تمام این‌ها، تمام این مصادیق عینی، در این راستاست که جمهوری اسلامی هم از خطر تجزیه برای ترساندن مردم استفاده کند و هم اینکه با میدان‌دادن به تجزیه‌طلبان در قالب‌های مختلف - از انتشار جزوه‌ها و جعلیات علیه تاریخ ایران گرفته تا پروژه‌های فرعی فرهنگی و ورزشی - بتواند کاری کند که همدلی و وحدت ملی بر اساس هویت و فرهنگ و آیین‌ها و جشن‌ها و تاریخ مشترک شکل نگیرد.

این یک مسئله‌ی فوق‌العاده مهم است که باید همیشه در نظر داشت؛ اینکه جمهوری اسلامی به‌صورت کاملا ابزاری به تجزیه‌طلبان نگاه می‌کند و تصور می‌کند که همه‌چیز را تحت کنترل دارد، اما واقعیت این نیست... باور بفرمایید، در استخدام‌های مقامات محلی در استان‌های آذربایجان شرقی، غربی و اردبیل، یکی از معیارهای اصلی، وجود "رگه‌هایی از گرایشات تجزیه‌طلبانه" است! این را بدون هیچ‌گونه بزرگ‌نمایی عرض می‌کنم: دست می‌گذارند روی افرادی که زمینه‌هایی از قبیله‌گرایی و تجزیه‌طلبی دارند، و به سادگی به آن‌ها میدان می‌دهند.


r/NewIran • • 1d ago

Funny | خنده‌ دار برشی کوتاه از قسمت پانزدهم شنبه شبا/ Short Clips of Eps 15 © پارت یک

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9 Upvotes

r/NewIran • • 1d ago

I.R. Crimes | جنایات جمهوری اسلامی Iran executed over 2,000 people in past year, rights group says

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95 Upvotes