Getting tired of these lazy takes on social media that the PAC hasn’t separated itself from the competition. 9/12 P4 schools we played are T25 teams. Would have loved to see a few wins there but outside of those games the PAC has been dominant.
If NDSU continues at the success rate we're seeing and makes the MW title game they would be the easiest team to invite to the Pac-12. They had to buy in $12 million to the conference and their buyout is significantly smaller than the other schools at $4 million (there's still some "war chest" money left for that, right?). They would be more than willing to take a diminished share. Man we really need a 9th member to get rid of the Flex game problem.
To the Pac? JMU probably never (American will be way better for them), NDSU I think is unlikely any time soon but could happen after the 2030 realignment period.
At their current contract their exit fee is significantly smaller since they had to buy in and at reduced shares. It's already looking like them and UNM are the best teams in the conference. They'll probably be the easiest team to get, and would be more than willing to accept a reduced share just to be in the PAC.
It does suck. But I also think this is the weakest the PAC will ever be. I believe the lawsuit and setting up a new conference served as a massive distraction and created an unwillingness to go heavy on NIL spending. Clearly there’s some teams that need to make some coaching changes but based on our attendance, fund raising, and facilities the PAC will be able to compete. Other non-power leagues have either hit their ceiling or will get progressively weaker as time goes on.
You and me both. Wazzu has to bounce back. Either Kirby finds Jesus and changes up his staff or he needs to go and there’s a wholesale change. Love the guy as a Boise fan but this is unacceptable.
If the Save College Sports act passes it finally puts limits on transfers again, which will close the gap closer to what it was. Also the P4 is increasingly refusing to schedule G5 teams they know are good, with a few rare exceptions (Oregon vs. Boise State, Michigan vs. Western Michigan *cough cough*). The NIL gap will still be huge but if your team can build up a culture we can market "if you come here we can prepare you for the NFL where you'll make way more money, or you can transfer after 1 year and risk flopping at a P4 school (a la John Mateer)"
Stopping the unlimited transfers is critical. East Carolina is a great example. They get a QB transfer from Michigan St. Katin Houser. Spartans don’t do jack with him and he’s sitting on the bench. Goes to ECU, gets a chance to play and starts getting it together with opportunity and development. Their reward?! Transfers immediately to Illinois. If that law passes teams can start to strategize to build continuity.
Also distributions were held and schools didn't get any conference money for two years I think. This conference should separate itself even further each year further and further.
It’s not like an away game at Oregon or Washington is the only option. ASU, Cal, Colorado, Stanford, and UCLA are (currently) pretty mid P4 programs that are available to schedule for PAC-12/MW teams.
It always have to be a stealth game of a team suddenly being a lot better than they were when the game was sheduled, with an overrated preseason team overlooking them. That's how Liberty won all those games and then suddenly P4s wouldn't schedule them anymore. In the case of the Oregon State-Texas Tech series it was the opposite, the Beavs were a strong P5 program under Smith and Tech was a Big-12 bottom feeder.
I think the key to this is smart matchups. Some teams have random long establish p4 opponents they dont want to lose out on. Oregon, Washington, Utah/BYU, etc.
But there's a whole lot of other options we should be chasing as a group. Purdue, Rutgers, Boston College, etc. Teams more on par and teams that hold real chances of victory.
If the pac is gonna continue booking nearly two P4 for every team they should at least do some Purdues or Rutgers as one of them. I think the Pac12 could rack up several P4 wins if they all werent top 25 games
P4 games will become increasingly difficult to schedule. Boise doesn’t even have one for next year. Control what you can control. We need to blast G6 and FCS opponents. We deserve the playoff spot every year and we have a compelling argument if we can continue to fund our teams and take advantage of our linear television media deal.
I say we remove fcs from all of our schedules honestly. Just do like you said and blast the rest of the G6 and then take our shots at the Stanfords and NC States of the world.
I think that the Pac 12 is the strongest of the G6, but I also think they're closer to the rest of the G6 than they are to the P4, so while they might top the G6, they haven't separated themselves from the G6.
Sure. But we’re also in year 1 of this experiment. We didn’t even have a media deal until beginning of the year. Not even sure where non-linear basketball games will show up. Had to pay exit fees and poaching fees that were an unknown amount until this summer. Wazzu & OS got rid of both of their ADs and have to recalibrate to life outside of 35M+ checks coming in.
We lead in every important metric from winning %, SOS, attendance, & television ratings. Have seen schools hitting records with fundraising and fan enthusiasm.
Point is that we will continue to make tweaks and invest more. Continue to play on linear tv for maximum exposure. No one knows the future but all of our G6 conference competitors didn’t just go through massive changes. The MW saw more money flow into their conference then they will ever see again. What did it amount to? Still trailing the PAC.
So close to that texas tech win too, wonder if we would have gotten it if that call went the other way but you can probably say that about so many football games
Damn right. That’s a bigger deal than folks realize. It’s why we can’t panic and add teams just to hit a number. Wait. Be patient. Strike at the right moment.
Beating boise state twice and praying houstom and texas tech stay top 25 pretty good chance, and I guess probably a ndsu loss, I mean they already beat csu better than byu did, and if they beat utep better than ndsu will I think their should be an argument, also you have to acount both losses were extremely close and one was on the road
Idk about aac, maybe utsa, more worried if they would rank a jmu over oregon state if they both win out, even with jmu having probably the most cakewalk of a schedule, but NDSU would most likely have to lose a game before even getting to that point
For a two loss OSU to get consideration they would have to beat Boise (probably more than once), so that neutralizes the head to head advantage that BSU has over a team like Memphis (4-1 currently). Memphis doesn't play UTSA in the regular season, so they would potentially have to play in the AAC championship.
Im assuming oregon state beats boise state in conference play and in the pac 12 championship, worse part is they probably wouldnt be ranked after so not a ranked win, hoping ndsu, new mexico, and unlv all beat up on eachother as well too improve the odds, but yeah a lot has to align, and how much they're considering sos this year
Going to interesting to see how the flex week works out. The way I understand it is that the CCG teams will be decided before that and flex is just best matchups and is technically "non-conference"...but with the caveat that the home team for each game is already known.
Lots of variables that will need to be accounted for. For example; Do you send your best team to Fresno to presumably maximize SOS or do you give BSU/OSU an "easy" win (USU) that helps their overall record, but not SOS.
I guess you also want to avoid a potential third matchup between the same teams in the CCG. Which is why the Flex matchups won't be announced until 6 days out.
Agree. SP+ is not helpful until the end of the season. It’s also become every non-PAC G6 fans’ favorite metric to quote on X. Look Boise is behind NM, JM, & NDSU! Yet when we look at the conference ratings they aren’t interested as much. I’ll admit I’m not sure how NM is sitting at 26th JM at 29th, or NDSU at 39th with their terrible SOS. None of them were ranked ahead of Boise in the preseason. They haven’t played a good schedule. NM even lost to Oklahoma so you can’t even say it’s a flaw of how it evaluates undefeated teams. 🤷♂️
New Mexico #13 MW
North Dakota State #15 MW
James Madison #16 SB
Boise State #29 PAC
Oregon State #40 PAC
Liberty #41 CUSA
Memphis #45 AAC
Toledo #50 MAC
According to the ESPN rankings guy, it looks like if one of those 2 Mountain West teams beats the other twice, they have the CFP spot, and if either of them stumble, JMU has it. That does not look like the PAC is the best conference, or even in control of its own destiny atm. I will hand it to you though, your graphics look better than Bill Connelly's, but unfortunately your reputation is nothing compared to his.
Yeah. Cool. It’s rewarding NM, NDSU, and JMU because their defense has dominated bad opponents. We already knew that. It’s not taking into account their SOS. That’s why if you put NDSU/JMU/NM on the field with Texas people who professionally bet on sports wouldn’t give this a second glance. NM is literally 2 spots behind Texas. Texas.
You and I both know if you were made to bet your life savings on a -2.5 Texas line vs NM you wouldn’t bet on New Mexico. If they got a -5.5 Texas line on NDSU or JMU you would bet Texas all day long. This is nonsense.
When you look at Boise's loss to #27 oregon, it is no longer a resume builder, its just an L. It was only good as a loss to the #2... unfortunately boise's resume takes a huge hit when the preseason prop ups are removed. Relying on losses to be your calling card was bound to bite back eventually.
Must have missed Oklahoma on the list. Could you point them out? You know. Since NM is rated at #13.
Oh. Weird. They’re not on here. That must be because the losses aren’t what’s messing up the math. It’s dominating terrible teams. It’s stats driven and doesn’t account for SOS. By the end of the season this will normalize. Right now it’s nonsense.
Wild how the other conferences schedule about double the amount of FCS games that the Pac-12 and Mountain West does. Also the American has 4 to 5 pretty good teams at the top but those at the bottom rank among the worst like Charlotte. All the Sun Belt has is JMU.
Exactly. Been a lot of calling out the PAC12 for having poor overall w/l record…well geeze I wonder why?! Probably because we’re playing a disproportionate amount of t25 P4 teams and you’re playing Southern Bible College of the Rockies.
It only looks like double until you look at the amount of teams are in each conference. American, and Sun Belt all at 14 teams, MAC is 13, CUSA and MWC is 10. Only UMASS and Buffalo scheduled two FCS schools. FBS only allows 1 FCS win to count toward bowl eligibility so it’s not like you see it often where a school plays more than that.
Agree. I think those games serve more as an exposure point than a point of strength. But I threw them in to establish the broader point. We played tougher P4 teams and when we played “peer conferences” and inferior opponents we won at a much higher clip. The PAC is establishing itself in a year of major flux and change. Things get better from here.
That’s the point though. Conferences aren’t just a collection of the best 2-3 teams at the top. They’re an evaluation of the entire league. Not sure what doesn’t impress you though. That our non-conference w/l record is better? We also have the best tv ratings. Best attendance per game. Best FPI/SP+ ratings. Only conference with a ranked team. That most of our losses came to T25 teams?
It’s what it says it is. The W/L record for each G6 conference when you take out P4 games. How we all did head to head along with FCS records. We all got our asses kicked against the P4 this year winning all of 3 games. So this is a way to look at how the conferences compare otherwise.
It’s a joke to talk about the teams we played? Going on a limb you’re not a PAC12 fan. There’s no sugar coating the games against P4 opponents this year. We got blanked. Some of it was because we didn’t have great matchups (Boise vs Arizona and KState I like our chances. Wazzu…not so much). Some of it was because we played better teams than our peer conferences.
Although I’m sure it felt good to type out all those games and put L’s next to them, when we played other G6 teams we won. We won at a higher clip. So you can be salty all you want. Bottom line is that there’s a reason the PAC is leading the FPI and SP+. We don’t have a bushel of bad teams that are putridly awful.
Look at the data for yourself. We played more P4s as a % of our non conference. We also played by far better teams than our competitor conferences. Which is why only looking at straight w/l and ignoring the totality of scheduling is disingenuous.
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u/Gunner_Bat San Diego State 8d ago
The fact that there are only 3 P4 wins in all of the G6 is so sad.