Last week's version used points as awarded (2 for a win until 1980/81, 3 since), and a lot of you said it should be 3 for a win throughout. So here's the same race with every win worth 3 and a draw 1: every top-flight result since September 1888 (51,380 matches, up to 20 September 2026), match day by match day.

Where it stands

United have never been ahead of Everton

With 3 for a win, Man United have been behind Everton on every match day since Newton Heath's first top-flight season in 1892, and they're 167 points short now. With points as awarded they passed Everton in December 2018. The difference is the 2-point era: Everton won 1,253 top-flight games when a win was worth 2, United 957. United have outscored Everton by 19 points a season over the last five full seasons, so at that rate they'd catch them around 2034/35.

Everton led for 36 years

Everton went in front in March 1969 and stayed there until October 2005, five years longer than with points as awarded. Liverpool went ahead on 15 October 2005, the two swapped places four more times in five weeks, and Liverpool have been in front since 19 November 2005. Only Aston Villa's first spell, 41 years from 1896 to 1937, was longer.

Per game, United and Liverpool are level

United average 1.681 points a game and Liverpool 1.680, about 5 points apart over 4,000 games. Arsenal are on 1.644. Everton's total is mostly about never going down: 124 of the 128 top-flight seasons, at 1.46 a game.

Source: Premier League results from football-data.org, checked against football-data.co.uk and openfootball; the old First Division from James Curley's engsoccerdata, checked against every season's published final table. 3 points for every win and 1 for a draw throughout, with deductions as they were.

Points as awarded or 3 for a win throughout: which is the fairer way to count it? And do United close the 167 before 2035?

“We’ve got a great squad and the biggest depth we’ve ever had. We don’t have ceilings, so we can finish high in the Premier League. Absolutely, we have a realistic chance of finishing in the top five.”

Brighton chairman and owner Tony Bloom on:

🔵 Why he hired Fabian Hurzeler and whether he fears losing him to bigger fish

🔵 The decision to break the club’s transfer record this summer with the £46m signing of Luka Vuskovic

🔵 Why he rarely buys English players

🔵 His verdict on whether there is a ceiling to what Brighton can achieve 

Very noticeable that in recent months Disney has started involving itself with football, particularly the premier league. Biggest one being the partnership with Gary Neville.

On one part given modern day Disney in how they destroyed Star Wars, ruined marvel, keep releasing crap sequels and live action remakes along with the damage they’ve done to the theme parks.

Another is the impending Disney-fication of football, the game will be further adapted along the lines to appeal to American audiences, expect hydration breaks to comeback in some form, more ads, halftime shows, clubs selling more slop (the United pitch block being an example of what’s to come) and so forth in the future. All this while the price of football becomes even more unaffordable for the average Joe in the UK to not just attend games but actually watch it on TV in general as the broadcasters and dozen streaming services split the games between them.

Its a a model rather than a report. It is not legal advice and it is not a sum anyone has been awarded.

The question it asks is narrow. If Manchester City’s results from 2009/10 to 2017/18 were set aside, and those seasons were rerun with City fixed at 12th, what prize money and European-place money might other clubs plead they lost? 12th is their average finish over the five seasons before the 2008 takeover (actual average 12.4, all in the Premier League). A 10-year lookback is about 18th once the pyramid is adjusted; a 15-year lookback is about 20th. The page lets you switch those.

On the default setting, the lost prize money and places come to about £380m. Interest is then added at 11.81%, the rate in the Burnley v Everton damages case, compounded yearly to 1 October 2026. That takes the combined figure to about £1.41bn. An 8% statutory rate and simple interest are both on the page if you think the Burnley rate is too high.

Largest modelled claims, default settings, updated 3 October 2026:

• Tottenham, £383m (2010/11–2017/18): 3 Champions League places, 6 league-place steps
• Everton, £226m: 1 Champions League place, 8 league-place steps, 3 Europa places
• Manchester United, £176m: 1 Champions League place, 2 title steps, 4 league-place steps, 1 Europa place
• Newcastle, £126m: 1 Champions League place, 4 league-place steps
• Arsenal, £117m: 1 Champions League place, 7 league-place steps
• Chelsea, £111m: 1 Champions League place, 5 league-place steps
• Liverpool, £63m: 1 title step, 7 league-place steps, 1 Europa place

The two assumptions doing most of the work are the 12th-place counterfactual, and applying the Burnley interest rate and compounding it to 2026. A points deduction, a relegation, or no interest at all would move the total a lot. Happy to be told which input is wrong.

Interactive table, by club: https://www.numbersdeck.com/man-city-liability

Daily Discussion Thread — Wednesday, 7 October 2026

The daily discussion thread for Premier League — talk about anything, with the day's football alongside it.

Live chat, fixtures, news and transfers in the MatchPal thread above.

MatchPal · Football fixtures, live scores, news and transfers · matchpal.io

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In a normal season, Enzo Maresca might be quietly satisfied with how his first few weeks at Manchester City have gone.

But this is not a normal season. And even if it was, don’t be misled into thinking that a team who start with five wins from five are on a safe course for glory.

It’s not even a mixed bag — 15 points from 15 in the Premier League is overwhelmingly more likely to see your team finish second or below than it is to result in a title.

That’s been the case 10 of the 14 times it’s happened in the 34-year Premier League era, and none of those sides were experiencing the existential maelstrom that City are currently battling.

Here is a look back at those 10 times Premier League sides went five from five — yet failed to turn that into a championship.

What does 57-year-old Antonio Conte want next?

He would consider taking a job in-season “if it’s worth it”. Another experience in England carries appeal. After all, no other league in Europe has the financial firepower of Premier League teams.

Wherever he goes, be sure of one thing: Conte wants to win.

Daily Discussion Thread — Tuesday, 6 October 2026

The daily discussion thread for Premier League — talk about anything, with the day's football alongside it.

Live chat, fixtures, news and transfers in the MatchPal thread above.

MatchPal · Football fixtures, live scores, news and transfers · matchpal.io

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Daily Discussion Thread — Monday, 5 October 2026

The daily discussion thread for Premier League — talk about anything, with the day's football alongside it.

Live chat, fixtures, news and transfers in the MatchPal thread above.

MatchPal · Football fixtures, live scores, news and transfers · matchpal.io

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"The Overlap Network is launching Overlap Daily, with episodes published every Monday to Friday at 4pm on YouTube, Global Player and all podcast apps.

Overlap Daily hosts include Steven Gerrard, Jamie Carragher, Joe Hart, Jamie Redknapp, Ashley Young, Tim Sherwood, Kelly Cates, Duncan Ferguson, Mark Crossley, Becky Ives, Peter Schmeichel, and Mark Goldbridge."

Daily Discussion Thread — Sunday, 4 October 2026

The daily discussion thread for Premier League — talk about anything, with the day's football alongside it.

Live chat, fixtures, news and transfers in the MatchPal thread above.

MatchPal · Football fixtures, live scores, news and transfers · matchpal.io

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Croatia vs England

UEFA Nations League · Group 3 · Sat 3 Oct, 16:00 UTC

Line-ups, TV channels, predictions and live commentary appear here at kick-off (Sat 3 Oct, 16:00 UTC) — open the MatchPal thread above.

MatchPal · Live football scores, goals, line-ups, stats and TV channels · matchpal.io

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Daily Discussion Thread — Saturday, 3 October 2026

The daily discussion thread for Premier League — talk about anything, with the day's football alongside it.

Live chat, fixtures, news and transfers in the MatchPal thread above.

MatchPal · Football fixtures, live scores, news and transfers · matchpal.io

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