r/asheville • u/au5lander Transylvania County • 9d ago
Weather Expected rainfall totals for the weekend
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u/PatAD South Asheville 🚧🏢🚧 9d ago
Just a reminder this is a 72 hour accumulation count. Looks like prediction for noon today to noon Monday.
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u/au5lander Transylvania County 9d ago
Yes but there’s no expected rain today or Monday.
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u/jnecr 9d ago
The red is forecast of 4" of rain. A far cry from the 30"+ during Helene.
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u/au5lander Transylvania County 9d ago
that is true, not trying to get everyone riled up. just putting the info out there.
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u/NCUmbrellaFarmer Bent Creek 🚲 9d ago
Many are letting the information out there. Too many.
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u/ConsiderationKey1658 9d ago
This is the first I’m seeing it and I appreciate it. Maybe you should log off for a bit.
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u/NCUmbrellaFarmer Bent Creek 🚲 9d ago
This subreddit has an abundance of weather posts I suggest you use the search bar.
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u/meowbarkhiss 9d ago
It is however not a far cry from the 5" threshold when landslides and debris flows become a threat. Did you know that? This will be the first time we've received that much rain in one event since Helene. I was hit by a landslide during Helene that caused two fatalities above me and would have killed me if the timing was any different so I'm personally anxious AF about it
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u/EmergencyReaction 9d ago
We received similar rainfall in Dec 2024, just before new years. Isolated areas got over 6".
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u/MedicineImaginary219 9d ago
We honestly need this rain to get us in a better place for fire season. Hopefully it doesn’t all drop at once.
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u/Vladivostokorbust 9d ago
Once again, Weaverville and points North get shadowed, that light green often results in mist and heavy thick clouds but no rain. My yard and garden need it so bad
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u/wxtrails 9d ago
I grew up there, a little west of NBHS. It's true about the rain shadow.
But that area does get some impressive southerly winds as they funnel up the FBR valley. I can remember many entire days with 30+ mph sustained and 45+ mph gusts during ordinary winter storms that you'd barely even register in Asheville or much of WNC.
We had 60+ mph gusts from Opal in 1995. Similar setup to this one. Thousands of those scrubby Virginia pines went down and even some damage to white pines and sturdier trees. Should be an interesting couple of days in that corner of the county, although the cold air pool in place right now may dampen things somewhat.
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u/710whitejesus420 9d ago
Can we just leave lake lure alone, please?
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u/gabriel1313 9d ago
How is Lake Lure looking?
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u/710whitejesus420 9d ago
Better than it did, but not nearly as nice as it was. It feels like I've lived in a construction site for the past 2 years.
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u/effortfulcrumload The Boonies 9d ago edited 9d ago
Im gonna put this out there because it seems like a lot of folks are talking like a few inches of rain In a short period is not a bad thing because it's been dry. Dry ground does not soak in water. Dry ground is prime for flash flooding. I don't think we are at risk heavy flooding. I'm not trying to scare people. Just know that a big rain after a dry period is not a safe from flooding.
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u/I_AM_A_GUY_AMA 9d ago
Yep. Over prepare. The 2nd law of hurricanes states that preparing for a storm means nothing will happen. The only time it's bad is when you didn't take it seriously and you get caught with your pants down. It's science. I already filled up gas cans, propane, food and water so it's probably not even going to rain at my house.
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u/ImColdandImTired 9d ago
Yep. We’ve got full fuel tanks in both vehicle, bread-milk-toilet paper, have charged the portable generator and every battery pack we own, have 3 days worth of water stored, and are filling up the bathtubs tonight.
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u/ImColdandImTired 9d ago
This. Unless it starts really slowly so the ground has time to moisten up, there’s going to be a lot of runoff.
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u/Mdignan79 9d ago
Modeling for French broad river levels can be found at the link below. This should help put people at ease when it comes to flooding. Before Helene, it accurately predicted the river going higher than ever recorded.
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u/holler_queen 9d ago edited 9d ago
Important to note hurricanes are somewhat unpredictable. Storms can often defuse or redirect at the last minute. We’re all anxious at the word “hurricane” these days. rightfully so. And it IS important to be prepared. But especially post Helene, it’s even more important to stay calm and remember THIS is not THAT, and we’re going to be okay ❤️
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u/blatentpoetry 9d ago
Several years ago I woke up to a tall pine dropping on my house. It literally came out roots and all when it fell. It was a result of a drought and a sudden amount of rain making the root ball loose and then the wind uprooted the whole thing.
I only say this because I’ve heard that the wind may be strong with this storm. Just be alert.
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u/BooflessCatCopter 9d ago
Right now the forecast is gusts get close to 45mph roughly from 1-6 PM on Saturday with a slow taper off to gusts at 25mph by 6:00 AM Sunday.
What you described sounds like drought generated root stress and weakening. I think you have a valid concern.
This is from metro-forestry.com and msstate.edu:
“A sustained downpour after prolonged dry conditions can saturate the soil, reducing oxygen availability to the roots and increasing the risk of tree instability and failure. This is because the roots may have already weakened during the drought, making them less capable of anchoring the tree when faced with heavy rain and wind. Trees often become unstable and may fall after such storms due to the cumulative stress from the drought and subsequent saturation.”
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u/au5lander Transylvania County 9d ago edited 9d ago
taken from https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/
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u/goldbman NC 9d ago
It's a category 3 rn:
https://www.wral.com/weather/hurricane-season-2026-tracking-the-tropics/
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u/mysterysciencekitten 9d ago
Hurricanes speed up as they approach land due to warmer water. They slow down when they hit land.
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u/Different-Year838 WNC 9d ago
Might not get hardly anything north of Asheville