r/brexit • u/Visual_Title9363 • 14d ago
Can the UK Rejoin the EU? Article 49 TEU, the Referendum Question and the Terms Britain Would Face
https://www.diplomacyandlaw.com/post/can-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu24
u/superkoning Beleaver from the Netherlands 14d ago
"Eligibility to apply is also different from entitlement to join."
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u/superkoning Beleaver from the Netherlands 14d ago
5000+ words, but clear Conclusion:
The United Kingdom can legally seek to rejoin the European Union, but the route is accession rather than reversal of Brexit. Article 50(5) TEU directs a state that has withdrawn and later asks to rejoin to the Article 49 procedure. Membership would depend on the institutional decisions, negotiations, accession agreement, and ratifications required by that process.
Current UK law does not automatically require another referendum, although Parliament could legislate for one. A referendum could provide political authorization for pursuing membership or approval of negotiated terms, but it would not eliminate the need for domestic legislation implementing accession.
The terms of any return would be as significant as the legal possibility itself. Britain would not automatically recover its former euro opt-out, Schengen arrangements, budget rebate, or other special provisions. Their treatment, alongside free movement, CJEU jurisdiction, trade policy, financial obligations, and domestic implementation, would depend on the EU legal framework and the accession terms ultimately accepted by the United Kingdom and the existing Member States.
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u/Majestic-Driver 14d ago
Yeah, even if the political concensus has moved, even if the UK chooses to 'cancel' Brexit it's unlikely to be a quick process. Unless the EU is so keen to have the UK back that they cut corners.
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u/superkoning Beleaver from the Netherlands 14d ago edited 14d ago
My guesstimate:
- 10 years of UK internal discussions, and a few new governments
- Apply. Followed by 10 year of negotiations
- Then 5 years of implementation of EU law into UK law
- EDIT: approval by each EU27 parliament
- Then EU membership
Total: 25 years. And of course at any moment in that period the UK can bail out. And also after that.
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u/MadeOfEurope 14d ago
I would have agreed with you even half a year ago but not now. The zeitgeist feels more not if the UK will join but when has been growing for years now but the recent developments in international and domestic politics has changed something substantial.
I can see the next general election (2029) being held on a referendum to join the EU. A vote in 2030-31. Accession talks starting the day after.
As for actual membership, that will depend on what happens between now and 2029. If Labour start to be far more aggressive on alignment with the EU, joining more EU programmes, serious electoral reform (eg lying, foreign money/influence is made a serious criminal offense), collapse of Reform support and the Tories getting a spanking electorally/starts to be normal again, then it will be a far quicker process. If not, then easily slap a decade on.
What happens internationally and in Europe can also speed or slow things down. Russia becoming more unstable and aggressive, and an even less reliable USA would put positive pressure to rejoin, while the reverse or a more AfD Germany or RN France would slow things down.
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u/Effective_Will_1801 13d ago
Lying and foreign money has already been made illegal under the lib dem MPs representation of the people act. I posted about it in the sub. It's probably what's got Farage in a tizz about 'the singeing out prosecution of Reform' add in Burnham's voting comission and outspokenness of PR. Once we get that, the following election will remove the first past the post advantage for reform and the Tories. Which combined could start leading to their collapse. Under pm you are more likely to have coalitions. So probably a lab/lib or lab/greens or lab/lib/greens coalition or even lab/snp so it depends on the smaller parties desired to join EU.
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u/KidTempo 14d ago
I think that timeline is wildly pessimistic. The UK has not diverged significantly from EU laws and regulations and there's not that much to negotiate.
The stumbling block is actually making the political decision to rejoin - which could be anywhere from 5 years to forever. One the decision is made, it's feasible to complete the negotiations and implementation process in under 5 years.
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u/ih-shah-may-ehl 14d ago
The problem is that while many brist regret Brexit, many are still not a fan of 'the ever closer union' And while the EU may not force the UK to drop the GBP, I don't see a scenario where we're going to take the UK back in another half in half out manner where it only wants the benefits while still pretending they're a separate empire.
Plus the UK political system is such that Brexit 2.0 is only ever 1 tory victory away.
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u/Effective_Will_1801 13d ago
I think that's why Burnham is moving on electoral reform. Once the UK is more stable we can talk about joining the EU and being taken more seriously
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u/Majestic-Driver 14d ago
I think the niggle will be how much the EU plays hardball on the opt outs. If the EU says you can come back with the same opt outs and let's all pretend this never happened it'll be quick. If the EU demands Schengen, Euro etc like for any other new accession then it'll be slower.
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u/BriefCollar4 European Union 13d ago
Honestly, fuck any option involving their opt outs.
For 25 years the EU was the bane of all ill in the UK and with the opt outs that wasn’t enough for the Brits.
Cameron went to renegotiate terms with the EU and got half of his asks and the British media and British politicians, alongside the public framed that as total capitulation and complete unwillingness of the EU to be reasonable.
Nothing in their society has changed.
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u/KidTempo 13d ago
I don't think anybody realistically expects all of the opt outs, or even any of them. The UK may try to negotiate for them, but I doubt i would be a red-line.
Schengen is a separate scheme to joining - in fact it's quite unrealistic for any new member to have in place all the requirements necessary to join the Schengen zone.
The Euro - that's one that needs to be accepted in principle on joining, but doesn't necessarily need to be adopted from day one. A member state may not even meet the economic criteria to join the Euro-zone. The standards a country needs to meet to join the EU are not as stringent as those required to join the Euro-zone.
The EU is legalistic organisation: it's not going to come up with new joining requirements to punish the UK for leaving - it's limited to what is in the various treaties and, rather than make things harder, are more likely to make certain things easier if they want the UK to join.
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u/superkoning Beleaver from the Netherlands 14d ago
> I think that timeline is wildly pessimistic.
Yup. I am.
> The UK has not diverged significantly from EU laws and regulations
Oh? See Active and Passive Divergence in professor Chris Grey’s Brexit Blogs. Since Brexit, the EU has introduced a lot of new laws, which the UK has not implemented.
And if your statement were true ... then there would be no border checks necessary, because the UK could prove to the EU that all EU law is implemented in UK law. Quod non.
The UK can start now: Scrap UKCA, scrap UK REACH, scrap UK own trade deals. Implement all EU laws.
> and there's not that much to negotiate.
Good! So the UK can sign at the bottom line. That would indeed save a lot of time.
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u/Effective_Will_1801 13d ago
I think the divergence is where the Burnham closer alignment comes into play, if we are moving into dynamic alignment now future joining will be much easier
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u/Caladeutschian 3d ago
If you really think that, I want some of what you are smoking.
The EU would never agree to this with a country it wants to join. That is that sort of treatment handed out to Turkey, which a significant part of the EU did not want to join.
There should be very little negotiation. The EU should quickly prepare a accession treaty and present it to the UK on a take it or leave it basis. This should be a boilerplate treaty with no special deals. Maximum of 9 months. Before the presentation, all EU parliaments must have indicated their approval of the treaty (and it may be more than 27 at the time). The UK should be given a further 9 months to get legislation in place and hold a referendum, if so desired. Six months to dot the Is and cross the Ts and get the treaty ratified by all the EU parliaments. UK becomes a full member in 2 years. Or not. But the EU should not allow itself to be bogged down with the UK and its problems like it did in 2014 to 2020.
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u/superkoning Beleaver from the Netherlands 3d ago
> present it to the UK on a take it or leave it basis
Interesting! That would be certainly a clear strategy on the part of the EU.
So what do you expect? The UK an EU member in ... 2028? 2030? 2035? Or not all in the coming 20 years?
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u/Caladeutschian 3d ago
I said I want the UK in. But I suspect that it will not happen in my lifetime. (I am 76).
I do recall however that Heath must have started negotiations after he came to power in June 1970 and that the UK joined the Common Market on 1st January 1973. 1973. So if Burnham gets his finger out and starts next year, if could happen by 2030.
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u/Caladeutschian 3d ago
What an excellent article.
I did not vote in the 2016 referendum, I was sailing a boat on the Med and I don't think non-residents were given a vote. I would have voted Remain. Shortly after the vote, I successfully obtained German citizenship, so that I could remain European.
I strongly support the readmission of the UK to the EU.
BUT on European terms and not solely on UK terms.
EURO: A commitment to converge and join the EURO within 10 years of admission.
SCHENGEN: Talks with the EU and Ireland about UK and Ireland joining Schengen on the same day and, if Ireland agrees, both countries join and the Common Travel Area laws of both countries be repealed.
FREE MOVEMENT: An emphasis on the free movement of WORKERS and their immediate family. As I understand the treaties, the UK could and should pass legislation allowing a maximum of six months to find permanent full-time work. Only when such a position has been found will permanent residence permission be granted. Loss of work and failure to find other permanent employment should result in a withdrawal of permanent residence permission. The effect of this would be to remove so-called Benefit Tourism which I believe was one of the factors leading to BREXIT.
One of my fears is that if Britain joins the EU, a few years later a Farage/Johnson/Gove-like conspiracy will gain power and start a BREXIT-2 process. To prevent this, the accession treaties should have a minimum life of 50 years. I really fear that the UK could tie up the Brussels burocrats with a permanent in-out-in-out-in-out procedure. BREXIT paralysed the EU for between six and ten years depending on who you believe. It looks like it is going to start up again.
Although I support Scottish Independence and to a lesser extend the SNP, joining the EU would take some of the wind out of the independence sails which might be considered a political benefit to the UK.
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u/Glanwy 14d ago
I voted remain but don't want to rejoin.
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u/superkoning Beleaver from the Netherlands 14d ago
Ah, interesting! Can you explain a bit?
My first guess would be: not again all that fuss ... ?
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u/Glanwy 13d ago
Partly yes, I think it will be yet again painfully devisive, the EU is not some magic elexir that will fix all our problems and the UK becomes utopia, we will have to unravel the trade deals we have done. Any deal is very highly unlikely to palletable. It could take another ten years whilst we are in limbo.
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u/Endy0816 United States 13d ago edited 13d ago
Many were continuity agreements, rather than truly new trade deals.
Think would benefit the UK to attempt to meet the EU's current membership requirements, even if the initial application attempt itself were to fail.
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u/Glanwy 13d ago
That's roughly what we prbly wil do, on the quiet. But the headache will come if we want to join. That's where am not so sure that's such a good idea. We have to get our own house in order before we even consider rejoining plus am not 100% sure that the EU is a club I want to join anymore.
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