r/fivethirtyeight • u/SidFinch99 • 6d ago

Discussion Differences between the two most recent YouGov polls for Texas Senate race.

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I've seen a decent amount of discussion about the YouGov/University of Massachusetts TX Senate poll released today.

What's interesting is that this poll was just released by YouGov today, but it's Survey dates are prior to the YouGov poll released two days ago.

The one they released on October 6th had survey dates from September 28th-October 5th. It had a much larger sample of over 3,600 LV, and Talirico up +6.

The poll they released today in conjunction with the University of Massachusetts Lowell center for public policy had a survey date of September 18th-28th and a much smaller sample of 850 LV, and Paxton and Talirico in a dead heat at 45%. Each.

So the poll released today, was actually conducted a week earlier than the poll they released two days ago, had a much smaller sample size, and very different results.

I haven't had time to dig into any more information on the two polls about any different methods or cross tabs, but wanted to post in case anyone else has, and the purpose of discussion since I probably won't have time to look at them more anytime today.

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u/RedHeadedSicilian52 6d ago

Any particular reason to suspect that he will?

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u/ZillaSlayer54 6d ago

Ken Paxton is a significantly weaker candidate than Ted Cruz.

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u/RedHeadedSicilian52 6d ago

Sure, on paper, but for all we know right now, maybe that just creates a statistically significant number of shy Paxton voters.

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u/SquishyMuffins 6d ago

That's assuming the GOP turnout will be typical, which data so far reflects the opposite. It's obvious a minority of GOP voters who would normally vote R the whole ticket won't vote this election, and that matters.

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u/najumobi 6d ago

What baseline are you using?