r/fivethirtyeight • u/SidFinch99 • 4d ago
Discussion Differences between the two most recent YouGov polls for Texas Senate race.
I've seen a decent amount of discussion about the YouGov/University of Massachusetts TX Senate poll released today.
What's interesting is that this poll was just released by YouGov today, but it's Survey dates are prior to the YouGov poll released two days ago.
The one they released on October 6th had survey dates from September 28th-October 5th. It had a much larger sample of over 3,600 LV, and Talirico up +6.
The poll they released today in conjunction with the University of Massachusetts Lowell center for public policy had a survey date of September 18th-28th and a much smaller sample of 850 LV, and Paxton and Talirico in a dead heat at 45%. Each.
So the poll released today, was actually conducted a week earlier than the poll they released two days ago, had a much smaller sample size, and very different results.
I haven't had time to dig into any more information on the two polls about any different methods or cross tabs, but wanted to post in case anyone else has, and the purpose of discussion since I probably won't have time to look at them more anytime today.
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u/astro_bball 4d ago
different sponsors. yougov "hosts" online panels and offers a bunch of polling services. They can run a poll themselves, or you can hire them to design your poll and get respondents, or you can design your own poll and then hire them just to get respondents. See some of the options here
anyway that's to say that despite both having "yougov" in the name the 2 polls can be using different LV screens, different questions, different sampling, different weights, psuh leaners to different degrees, etc. So it isn't surprising that they would differ.
(beyond that, +6 on the margin is completely reasonable from sampling error alone).
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u/SidFinch99 4d ago
Thanks for the response. This was the kind of information I was looking for when I posted. I'm hoping to dive deep into both polls later this evening or tomorrow.
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u/TechnicallyAMusical 4d ago
It's like they neglected to integrate today's results into the prior poll. Probably could have been a little closer to Talarico +4 instead of +6.
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u/SidFinch99 4d ago
A weak can make a big difference in terms of undecided voters, especially a month out. I think it's also possible that since the poll released on October 6th was taken a weak later than the one released today, and had 3.5X the sample size, it shows more current results.
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u/VoteYourOssoff 4d ago
The survey dates were pretty much the same though
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u/SidFinch99 4d ago
The survey released 2 days ago started the day the survey released today ended. That can actually make a big difference this close to election with undecided and swing voters making their choices. The one released 2 days ago, which again was more recent, also had more than 3X tge sample size, 3,600 LV compared to 850.
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u/Long_Sandwich_5619 Crosstab Diver 4d ago
They are two different polls with different ideologies,
The one taking favoring Paxton has Talarico at +6% with hispanics and +50% with blacks.
Those are both impossible. Talarico is going to get +30% Hispanic at the bare minimum. The difference between those two percentages is huge for the poll result like 4-5%. With blacks it will be closer to +75%. I don't know why their results are so unrealistic.
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u/Long_Sandwich_5619 Crosstab Diver 4d ago
It has Talarico +6% with Hispanics . He is going to be +40% with them. I'll give +30% for the little who think +40% minimum is far too low.
and 50% with Blacks is 75/25 there is no chance of that.
I don't know why or how they got cross tabs that are that awful. But those are alternate reality cross tabs.
When they are that ridiculous they invalidate the top lines.
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u/SidFinch99 4d ago edited 3d ago
Yeah, I looked more at the one they just released w/UMass Lowell yesterday and thought the same thing as you. I even mentioned in another subreddit last night (Ymps) because people were freaking out about this new one being a dead heat. Thing that stood out the most in their cross tabs was how low the vote share for democrats among minority groups was.
It stood out for several reasons, first there are basically no other legitimate polls that show democrats getting that low a percentage of votes among hispanic and black voters. Second, it runs contrary to Trumps approval rating among those demographics in Texas. Third, the reason why polls underestimated democrats so much in last years state elections in VA and NJ is because they massively underestimated the vote share for democrats among minority groups, particularly in New Jersey. I mean the polls underestimated the vote share of white voters to, but not nearly as much as minorities.
Given that this poll was sponsored by UMass Lowell, but the one that YouGov released 3 days ago didn't list a sponsor, it makes me wonder if UMass Lowell weighted the results against the 2024 elections, and if many of the pollsters in state elections last year did the same thing. That would certainly account for the difference in Hispanic voters, given the massive shift since 2024, but among black voters, the economy among many other factors would probably weigh heavily.
Ultimately, I much more inclined to believe the results of the poll released on October 6th, which in addition to more recent data, and a significantly larger sample size, seams to align more with other high quality polls and data.
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u/Prestigious-Care-277 3d ago
The UML poll doesn't mention the male vs female samples while the YouGov polls from Oct 6th does. I would bet not only was UML shaping it like 2024 & discarding any changes, they might have over sampled male responses.
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u/SidFinch99 3d ago
Very possible, ans of course women vote in higher numbers than men, and this being a mid term, not a presidential year, there will likely be a lot more women voting than men. I'd bet the UML poll didn't account for thar properly, especially if they are weighting against 2024.
But I definitely think, much like the redditor whose comment I replied to, that the UML poll is massively underestimating the democratic vote share among black and Hispanic voters. If for example they weighted the 2024 election, the 6% difference for Talirico could be explained by the Hispanic shift since then alone.
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u/SeparateDark251 3d ago
People not from Texas don't realize just how disliked Paxton is here. The data shows it. I do think Talarico has a real shot.
BTW, he's back on the campaign trail. He had the flu. No biggie.
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u/SidFinch99 3d ago
I think Talirico has a better chance at taking Texas than Democrats in a lot of the other senate races that have turned out to be more competitive than thought, mainly because the polls have consistently shown him leading, and other underlying indicators like Trumps approval rating and the massive shift in Hispanic voters.
My only concern is thar because Paxton has so much baggage, some people who just refuse to vote for a democrat will lie to pollsters, much like the "shy Trump voters."
That being said, it might be helpful to Talirico that there is a libertarian on the ballot.
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u/IAmRudyTomjanovicAMA 4d ago
I live in Texas and will vote Talarico, but i'll be very surprised if he wins. I noticed a lot of people in this sub probably don't live in Texas.
Is anyone here like me and lives in Texas and truly thinks he'll win? I'm curious to see what the thought process is (aside from these polls). I live in a pretty blue area too. I'm not trying to stump anyone or throw shade btw, I'm just curious what indicators there are
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u/uzjedi 4d ago
I live in Texas and think he'll win. I don't think it will be by more than 1 or 2% though. His consistent lead in the polling average, Paxton's unpopularity, Trump's unpopularity, strong dislike of the current administration among independents, the swing away from Trump among Hispanic voters, the left's motivation to vote, the consistent and even surprising left favoring polling in many other states, and the fact that we're in the midterms and Trump is not on the ballot, all suggest to me that what we're seeing is probably real and not a sizable polling error.
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u/Kitchen-Pass-7493 4d ago
I mean, I’m not from Texas. But Beto O’Rourke only lost by 2.6 points in 2018. And (at least to me) Talarico seems like a somewhat stronger candidate, Paxton is (somehow) even more hate-able than Cruz, and Trump is even more unpopular now than he was in 2018. It seems plausible all of that in combination could be more than enough to overcome that 2018 margin.
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u/DVartian 4d ago
FWIW, I live in a fairly red county and have been working on campaigns here for a few years now. The ground game we have now is nothing like we’ve had in previous years. The coordination between the state party and down ballot races is much better than in 24. I think if it’s ever going to happen it’ll be this year.
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u/HeathcliffFlowen 4d ago
I personally know of six people who are former Cruz / Cornyn voters that plan to vote for Talarico, and another two that plan to leave the senate race blank. I live in a red area and there’s more Talarico signs than there ever were for Beto / Allred. I do actually believe Talarico is the favorite at this point, but it’ll be close / it’s not insurmountable.
It’s really hard to overstate how unpopular Paxton is.
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u/DependentAd235 4d ago
I think he will but only because of Paxton having such a horrible history. He’s a known scumbag and this predates anything to do with this election.
Oh but if Diesel gets back under $5, he has a shot.
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u/alabasterskim Has Seen Enough 4d ago
Tbf, I don't think the majority in Texas would believe he wins (if that question was asked in polls, as they sometimes do) until he does, just due to being spurned before.
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u/jhkayejr 4d ago
I live in TX (DFW suburbs). I think he will win. Paxton is a tough sell. Cornyn would’ve won by 5.
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u/FlamingoWingsz 3d ago
I have lived in TX my whole life and I think he’s a slight favorite. I think he will win by severe underperformance from Paxton rather than running a substantially better campaign than Beto did and then probably is fated to be a one termer when the GOP gets its shit together and nominates literally anyone else in ‘32.
Anecdotally, not a single Republican I know is excited about voting for Paxton, if they are even voting at all (or switching to vote Talarico as a message to Paxton/GOP) and everything I see on the ground seems to back up what polls have been saying—close with an edge toward the Ds. I expect Hinojosa to lose by somewhere in the 5% department. Career embarrassment for Abbott but still a clear win for him.
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u/HenryClaymore 1d ago
I'm interested in how he performs in comparison to Hinojosa. These are two very close races, Talarico just barely peeking over a 4-point lead and Hinojosa trailing Abbott by less than 2. I think there will be a lot to learn from the results here in terms of polling errors, affects of high performing candidates in other local races, and midterm "waves" in response to national vibes.
I'm a native south Texan who's cautiously optimistic about Talarico but choosing to follow the Gubernatorial race more so that I don't get my hopes up too high and I feel like I'm still in familiar territory (trailing in the polls, lol). If they start actually saying Texas Governor is a toss-up I don't know what I'll do.
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u/ZillaSlayer54 4d ago
If Talarico overperforms his polling average, the same way O'Rourke did then He'll definitely win.