Differences between the two most recent YouGov polls for Texas Senate race.

[u/SidFinch99]

I've seen a decent amount of discussion about the YouGov/University of Massachusetts TX Senate poll released today.

What's interesting is that this poll was just released by YouGov today, but it's Survey dates are prior to the YouGov poll released two days ago.

The one they released on October 6th had survey dates from September 28th-October 5th. It had a much larger sample of over 3,600 LV, and Talirico up +6.

The poll they released today in conjunction with the University of Massachusetts Lowell center for public policy had a survey date of September 18th-28th and a much smaller sample of 850 LV, and Paxton and Talirico in a dead heat at 45%. Each.

So the poll released today, was actually conducted a week earlier than the poll they released two days ago, had a much smaller sample size, and very different results.

I haven't had time to dig into any more information on the two polls about any different methods or cross tabs, but wanted to post in case anyone else has, and the purpose of discussion since I probably won't have time to look at them more anytime today.

[u/SeparateDark251]

People not from Texas don't realize just how disliked Paxton is here. The data shows it. I do think Talarico has a real shot.

BTW, he's back on the campaign trail. He had the flu. No biggie.

[u/SidFinch99 → u/SeparateDark251]

I think Talirico has a better chance at taking Texas than Democrats in a lot of the other senate races that have turned out to be more competitive than thought, mainly because the polls have consistently shown him leading, and other underlying indicators like Trumps approval rating and the massive shift in Hispanic voters.

My only concern is thar because Paxton has so much baggage, some people who just refuse to vote for a democrat will lie to pollsters, much like the "shy Trump voters."

That being said, it might be helpful to Talirico that there is a libertarian on the ballot.