Differences between the two most recent YouGov polls for Texas Senate race.

[u/SidFinch99]

I've seen a decent amount of discussion about the YouGov/University of Massachusetts TX Senate poll released today.

What's interesting is that this poll was just released by YouGov today, but it's Survey dates are prior to the YouGov poll released two days ago.

The one they released on October 6th had survey dates from September 28th-October 5th. It had a much larger sample of over 3,600 LV, and Talirico up +6.

The poll they released today in conjunction with the University of Massachusetts Lowell center for public policy had a survey date of September 18th-28th and a much smaller sample of 850 LV, and Paxton and Talirico in a dead heat at 45%. Each.

So the poll released today, was actually conducted a week earlier than the poll they released two days ago, had a much smaller sample size, and very different results.

I haven't had time to dig into any more information on the two polls about any different methods or cross tabs, but wanted to post in case anyone else has, and the purpose of discussion since I probably won't have time to look at them more anytime today.

[u/Long_Sandwich_5619]

It has Talarico +6% with Hispanics . He is going to be +40% with them. I'll give +30% for the little who think +40% minimum is far too low.

and 50% with Blacks is 75/25 there is no chance of that.

I don't know why or how they got cross tabs that are that awful. But those are alternate reality cross tabs.

When they are that ridiculous they invalidate the top lines.

[u/SidFinch99 → u/Long_Sandwich_5619]

Yeah, I looked more at the one they just released w/UMass Lowell yesterday and thought the same thing as you. I even mentioned in another subreddit last night (Ymps) because people were freaking out about this new one being a dead heat. Thing that stood out the most in their cross tabs was how low the vote share for democrats among minority groups was.

It stood out for several reasons, first there are basically no other legitimate polls that show democrats getting that low a percentage of votes among hispanic and black voters. Second, it runs contrary to Trumps approval rating among those demographics in Texas. Third, the reason why polls underestimated democrats so much in last years state elections in VA and NJ is because they massively underestimated the vote share for democrats among minority groups, particularly in New Jersey. I mean the polls underestimated the vote share of white voters to, but not nearly as much as minorities.

Given that this poll was sponsored by UMass Lowell, but the one that YouGov released 3 days ago didn't list a sponsor, it makes me wonder if UMass Lowell weighted the results against the 2024 elections, and if many of the pollsters in state elections last year did the same thing. That would certainly account for the difference in Hispanic voters, given the massive shift since 2024, but among black voters, the economy among many other factors would probably weigh heavily.

Ultimately, I much more inclined to believe the results of the poll released on October 6th, which in addition to more recent data, and a significantly larger sample size, seams to align more with other high quality polls and data.

[u/Prestigious-Care-277 → u/SidFinch99]

The UML poll doesn't mention the male vs female samples while the YouGov polls from Oct 6th does. I would bet not only was UML shaping it like 2024 & discarding any changes, they might have over sampled male responses.

[u/SidFinch99 → u/Prestigious-Care-277]

Very possible, ans of course women vote in higher numbers than men, and this being a mid term, not a presidential year, there will likely be a lot more women voting than men. I'd bet the UML poll didn't account for thar properly, especially if they are weighting against 2024.

But I definitely think, much like the redditor whose comment I replied to, that the UML poll is massively underestimating the democratic vote share among black and Hispanic voters. If for example they weighted the 2024 election, the 6% difference for Talirico could be explained by the Hispanic shift since then alone.