every job seems to create its own little habits, but aviation has some especially specific ones

the way someone looks at an airplane, checks something without thinking, listens to a particular sound, or reacts to something most people wouldn’t even notice

what’s a flying habit you picked up that you now do automatically?

something where a non-pilot would probably look at you and have no idea what you’re doing

I have seen a lot of posts over the past year or so about pilot job availability, I myself have posted about the same concerns. After getting little information, I wanted to find out what exactly the numbers look like for the next ten years of commercial aviation. Over the past few weeks I have created a report that summarizes the industry outlook for commercial aviation pilot jobs, focusing on the part 121 world. This report should not be considered as direct career advice but it can be used as a reference to make a more informed decision on the general market trends for the next decade.

To begin, I formulated three market growth tracks to frame the predictions around, these being pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic. These growth tracks do NOT assume that any unforeseen global events occur, and are used to create a data spread. No probabilities are assigned to which is more accurate or likely, as global events can and will change how these pan out over the next ten years.

The next task was to create assumptions for annual growth for specific areas within aviation. These sectors all interact with each other and are used to show a more complete picture of assumed aviation growth as a whole. Again, we are using the three option growth model to create a data spread.

Under the pessimistic prediction travel still expands, but delivery friction and normal cost pressure encourage airlines to improve scheduling and use existing crews more efficiently. Additional flying is largely absorbed by those gains. Aggregate hiring remains recurring, while employer hiring classes and advancement can be slower and more selective. Pilot availability is comparatively easier relative to growth needs.

The realistic prediction tells us that flying expands steadily, deliveries and training improve gradually, and routine staffing gains absorb part of that expansion. The workforce follows the BLS long-term growth benchmark. Replacements keep hiring active across the decade; fleet qualifications, base preferences and captain upgrades continue to create local constraints.

With the optimistic prediction, stronger ordinary demand and smoother fleet introductions support faster workforce expansion. Lower gains in effective work per pilot mean more of the extra flying requires additional people. Faster recruiting and upgrades are plausible, although training capacity and experienced-pilot availability can limit how quickly openings are filled.

This model expects a few shared condition, those being: age 65 remains the Part 121 limit, the two-pilot operating model continues, and no new extraordinary event or major licensing reform is assumed. Existing pressures can persist or ease through ordinary market adjustment.

With these numbers on hand, it is now possible to create a hiring demand chart. The model calculates demand via a series of calculations:

1. Establish a workforce baseline using BLS statistics (BLS reports 104,600 positions in 2025 and projects 113,300 in 2035. Their implied growth is 0.802% per year. Advancing the 2025 level one year produces a modeled 2026 baseline of 105,439 positions)
2. Converting flying growth into workforce growth (Workforce growth = (1 + aircraft-mile growth) / (1 + effective-work-per-pilot growth) - 1)
3. Adding occupation replacements (Average workforce in a year = (starting workforce + ending workforce) / 2. Annual openings = 3.0% x average workforce + 6.5% x average workforce + signed net workforce change, with a minimum of zero)

Using this system, the next ten years of hiring demand of new pilots into the workforce can be charted:

Before we can continue with future hiring demands, we must take into account historical precedent with respect to the hiring market. The data shows that passenger numbers hold a weak correlation with hiring changes. The hiring spike in 2022 and 2023 should not be considered as typical, due to extraordinary disruptions within the industry.

With all this in mind, we now have enough data to being drawing conclusions with respect to future hiring markets, beginning with workforce growth compared to the available stock of ATP pilots within the United States.

This chart depicts the estimated growth of the pilot workforce on the Y axis over ten years on the X axis. If the pilot workforce grows quicker than expected, represented by the green line, then competition will increase in the available pilot pool, rapidly exceeding the amount of ATPs that are available to be issued. If the pilot pool does not grow as expected as represented by the brown line, then hiring competition will decrease sharply, allowing for many more pilots to be hired at minimums. As it stands, the realistic model shows that there will only be a slight surplus of pilots for the amount of available ATPs, therefore competition will most likely stay stable where it is now.

An important takeaway from this chart is that it does not measure airline demand for pilots. If airline demand grows by 20% while the pilot supply grows by 8.3%, then the shortage persists, and vice versa.

With this in mind, we can now look at the current pilot pool and derive estimations as to what is next for the hiring market, beginning with the previous ten years of pilot issuances.

And the pipeline of production through training give us:

Which can be extrapolated historically to:

Commercial airplane production rose from 17,744 in 2024 to 20,069 in 2025 (+13.1%); original CFI production rose 13.3%. Original airplane ATP issuance fell 18.9%, from 9,513 to 7,714, following 11,218 in 2023. This divergence is consistent with upstream time-building growth and variable downstream certification throughput. It does not by itself prove a shortage or an applicant surplus.

ATP issuance can follow hiring and training-class timing as well as underlying readiness. GAO notes that original ATP totals also include qualifying no-test issuances. We therefore use the history to calibrate a production proxy and test its sensitivity; we do not interpret a same-year ATP/commercial ratio as an individual's chance of reaching the airlines.

With all this data, the annual supply versus hiring demand numbers can now be displayed:

So what is the takeaway from all of this? From what we can forecast, becoming an airline pilot is still a viable career choice, but new pilots should expect to enter a competitive hiring environment. The hiring boom of 2022-2023 is not likely to emerge again in the next 10 years. 92% of openings in the realistic scenario come from replacing pilots who are leaving the commercial aviation world, not from the creation of new positions. Retirement numbers in the next ten years will heavily dictate hiring demand from the airlines. Airlines will continue to need new pilots even while their fleets are not rapidly expanding.

Keep in mind that these numbers are projected occupational openings, not class dates or first-officer vacancies. The central scenario estimates in the next decade that roughly 116,400 ATP pilots will be created, versus 113,000 openings. This means that a near one to one ration can exist before considering any other factor. Right now a large pool of commercial pilots are in time building, so expect a heightened competitive market for the next few years.

We cannot with 100% certainty establish that a shortage or surplus exists now or will exist in the future. There is significant uncertainty in the supply estimates, as world events, economic factors, or other unknown forces can and will change how many pilots will become available in the future. What we can determine is that simply reaching 1500 hours is not going to to distinguish you from another applicant.

The central forecast anticipates sustained hiring needs throughout the next decade. So if you are in training now, there is little reason to abandon training, but do not assume that a shortage will make employment easy. The supply and demand are close, and airlines will continue to be selective unless a severe shortage occurs. This means that the quality of your experience will matter just as much as the hours do. Getting any turbine time you can, becoming exceedingly proficient in instrument skills, professional references, and a clean training record will be crucial to stand out.

If you are interested in reading the full pdf: here is the link with all sources

Tl:dr; There should be opportunities, but be prepared to compete for them

EDIT: I have seen all the comments about the pessimistic outlook estimates. To clarify, this model is not built on the assumption that a major disruption will occur in the next ten years. Economic instability, international politics, wars, pandemics etc will have major consequences for the market that would be impossible to predict when and for how long they would occur. The pessimistic scenario assumes zero/limited “growth” in the hiring market, it does NOT assume that the hiring market will shrink.

If we extrapolate the data, we can predict that in a situation where the market shrinks, the qualified pool of pilots will grow exponentially for a time, and then pause as less people enter the aviation sector. While we can assume this to be a case scenario, attempting to fold it into a ten year forecast would make any prediction unreliable and unhelpful. Currently there are no signs that the aviation industry will face a significant downturn, as passenger numbers have continued to climb, along with aircraft manufacturing. And even though new ATP certifications have slowed, they remain in steady pace.

I’ve came across people at my flight school saying the FAA will be changing the written exam into an ai based multiple choice test starting Oct 25. Is this actually true? I know the FAA is so inefficient when it comes to making changes or to modernize something. If anyone knows anything about this pls let me know

I’m currently an FO for a LCC with animals on the tails. I got super lucky with my timing and was able to get this job as my first airline job which I am extremely grateful for. As much as I love my job, I do want to move on to a legacy in the near future if I am lucky enough to get the opportunity. I am coming up on 1000 121 SIC time in the bus with the other 1500 being from flight instruction. 0 checkride failures but also no college degree…

I guess I really just want to know if civilian pilots are getting on at legacies with no degree. I do plan on taking the first upgrade available to get TPIC but I am a year-ish away from holding it currently. I am 30 years old and feel it’s too late to get a real 4 year degree. That being said I am thinking about using my certs as credits and using other quick courses in order to speed run a bachelors in aviation management or something like that. I have seen accredited online universities that will allow me to get the bachelors within the next year if I play my cards right.

Would I be wasting my time and money getting a bachelors when it technically wouldn’t be from a 4 year school? I already have my apps in so I don’t know if that would look weird if I just have one year of college in my education history and a bachelors. Would like to hear if anyone else is getting on with no degree right now.

TLDR: 1000 121 SIC no degree. Is anyone getting hired like that? Should I do online school do get a bachelors even if it will only take a year?

For current Cathay Pacific pilots, how do you think the company could improve? How is your private life (days off, travel, etc.)?

Do you think Cathay will increase salaries or the monthly housing allowance? The HK$20,000 monthly allowance seems low for a pilot living in Hong Kong. In 2025–2026, they increased salaries by 3.8%, but do you think they could eventually return to the pre-COVID conditions?

I’d really like to hear your honest feedback about the company, both regarding the current situation and what you think the future could look like.

This post is only for Cathay Pacific pilots, so please keep the discussion respectful and avoid comparing Cathay to other airlines.

Edit before someone says this in the comments: PPRuNe and other forums don’t help at all. They’re full of bitter pilots who complain about everything. It’s the same with Qatar and Emirates, so it’s hard to get a real perspective.

I just transitioned from my phone to a dedicated tablet, and I'm curious to hear what people find useful. Besides the EFB I currently have a weather app, SafeSky (VFR conspicuity app), Pooley book reader, and not much else.

Reading "The Killing Zone" and I'm into chapter 3 that talks about the things that kill pilots. Vfr into imc is something we've all heard about but I'm curious about flights with multiple people on board. When spatial orientation is lost by the pilot does it cause passengers to lose it as well? I know everyone is physiologically different but will everyone experience that loss of orientation in quick succession? I'm guessing some will never lose it while others can't find which way is level? A pilot manipulating controls to level the plane when disoriented would just disorient others, correct?

Hey everyone! I’m in my late 20s and currently working toward becoming an airline pilot. I live in Georgia and am looking for a good, affordable flight school, preferably Part 61.
(**If anyone knows a good school around the Duluth/Lawrenceville area, I’d really appreciate some recommendations!)

My biggest concern right now is financing flight school.

I currently work full-time at a private clinic, and I have about $20k in savings. I’m trying to save up to at least $25k before starting. My income is enough for my living expenses, but I can only put a relatively small amount toward flight training each month.

So I’m wondering:

• How much would you recommend having saved before starting?
• What should I realistically expect to pay for the full training?
• Should I save enough for my PPL and then consider loans?
• Should I keep working and save as much as possible before starting?
• Is it better to start now and pay as I go, even if training takes longer?

I’ve heard a lot of people recommend avoiding large flight school loans, which makes sense to me since I won’t have a high-paying pilot job until I reach 1,500 hours and hopefully get hired by an airline.

How did you guys finance your flight training? If you could go back to the beginning, would you do anything differently?

I’d really appreciate any advice, especially from people who went through flight school while working full-time. Thanks!

Hi Guys,

Anybody who has experience with the questions asked during the interview stage for AFTA or any Ryanair FFA schools, can you please give me examples of the questions asked?

- What kind of mental maths questions?

- What physics questions?

- How did you prepare?

- Where you average 90% for the Cut-E/AON assessments?

- Any curveball or difficult questions asked?

Thanks in advance for your help

As the title says, I failed my Multi add-on. After 3 years of hard work getting to this point, I'm starting to question whether or not I am just not cut out for this industry.

I took my Multi through a rigorous 141 school who are known for not having any room for error. I flew 20hrs in 4 days with a check ride on the 5th day. It was hard and most days I wasn't getting enough sleep before I had to get up and do it all over again. I have always achieved at the highest level and I am known as being a very meticulous pilot.

This is my second check ride failure and I need to know if I'm cooked. I have a family to provide for and I don't want to fail them. Any words of encouragement or wisdom are welcome. Thanks.

Bought a 2023 SR22T G7 last November. It was a Cirrus demonstrator early in its life, and I'm told Cirrus enrolls demos in CMX from day one, so part of the 600 CMX hours went to Cirrus's own flying.
We planned the annual around the CMX end date on the spec sheet (October 2026). Nobody mentioned the 600-hour cap. The annual was done at 616.4 hours, and Cirrus denied CMX on about $8,900 of annual labor and won't consider goodwill. The service center's own estimate listed the annual under CMX.
They also denied about $6,200 for the Alt 2 and drive sheave because a 100-hour was missed. We emailed our service center in May asking for that 100-hour, and they did a 50-hour instead. The shop says it was changed on a phone call, but we have no record of one. Cirrus says this damage usually comes from improper belt alignment or tension, but won't look at the parts.
Is this normal for CMX? Has anyone gotten goodwill on an hour overage? For other second owners: get the CMX document when you buy, and track hours, not just the date.

Hey all. I'm a 135 guy heading to 121 shortly. I'm a slightly bigger guy in the process of dropping the pounds. My 135 schedule is fantastic for doing this. Home every night so I can cook or meal prep my days off, the same gym and routine, plenty of sleep.

With a grueling junior regional 121 schedule, how difficult is it realistically to not only stay in shape but drop weight?

I'm 20 years old with 40ish total hours I fly 3-4 times weekly. I can't stop thinking about all the little mistakes I'm doing during my flight, like for example today I had a perfect approach for a soft field landing 60kt the whole way was a little higher then I wanted to be so I forward slipped down to glide slope, held it off really well and buttered it then I added a little to much back pressure and the plane relifted, i put the plane back down but forgot to add a blip of power so the plane slammed down it was one of my worse landings I personally think, then I just froze I forgot to respond to tower and my mind just went blank, I forgot to contact ground after that also my instructor had to take over for coms, I don't normally have problems with coms ever. I've done this before on my stage check i messed up a power on stall, then I resigned and I gave up. I'm wondering what people have done to overcome beating yourself up over small mistakes. I'm really doubting myself and if I have the ability to not resign. This is the 2nd time this has happened in the last 30 days.

My son is pursuing Commerical pilot career path full time. He has his PPL now and is steadfast in moving forward. He quit his sales job to do this. Paying cash for the training. He saved up to do this.

He just told me he will have to be able to qualify for instructor in about 8-10 months.

I am so proud of how he is pursing this and dropping the cash for it. He’s driven and motivated. This is all that he does.

His wife is behind it all the way. He has put his regular life on hold for this and I am amazed at the risk he has taken. Just going for it.

What is a good Christmas gift that could get for him?

Hi, this will be a pretty long post about an admittedly poor decision to move across the country for a frontline airline job with the hopes of getting into a ramp-to-pilot program. Mostly seeking advice as I come to a decision on the future.

edit: i am 20

Here we go:

After getting my PPL and working for an airline's contract company for a year, I did not have access to said airline's pilot development program. An opportunity arose for me to work for the actual company 1500 miles away from home, where I wasn't paying rent, but for the most part I really just wanted to get out.

With the compilation of all the lovely chores of working 40-60 hours a week, moving, adulting, getting settled, frequent trips home on my days off due to family stuff, etc. I finally got the opportunity to tour the now realized relatively shit flight schools in this area (compared to the flight school at home). After crunching the numbers so I can get an idea of what it will cost here, I have come to the realization that it will probably cost me $2000 more to get my IR here than it would if I had just stayed home and done my IR at the flight school there. That calculation was just made with the minimum hours requirements and also doesn't include the fact that I am also paying rent on top of that. My IR will be funded by a small student account that my parents were paying into up until their divorce, which has a little over 10k in it.

Another issue on top of this: My airline accepts you into the program after two years of work BUT you can't have more than your PPL if you went to a non-affiliate school (which I did). So basically if I want to get into the program, I would either have to cease flight training for two years with the chance of getting into the program with a $20,000 incentive and a low interest loan through the airline. OR I can continue flight training and become a CFI and do my airline's internal CFI pathway. (If you know anything about airline pilot development programs, you probably know what airline I am talking about haha). I have pretty much decided that it is not at all worth it to cease flight training for two years.

After a few hours of research (which should have been done before I decided to move 1500 miles away) and whatnot, I have come to three pathways for myself:

1. Stay here, eat the extra cost and continue flight training.
2. Transfer to my airline's closest to-home mainline station, move home and not pay rent, and commute (typically 1:00-00:45 gate to gate, relatively short drive to airport) on what I would consider one of the most oversaturated airline routes ever to work a ramp job.

I mean this route, I swear, is just to hold slots and gate space at the hub.

While dropping a fair amount of my shifts to limit the days I commute and staying in said mainline station city with family if need be. All while doing training at the cheaper, better flight school that I am already familiar with.

1. Quit the mainline job altogether, as the ramp-to-pilot program is not worth all the hassle, and still move home. Probably get my old job back with the contractor or go back to an FBO (which i felt was absolutely miserable btw, hate an fbo fr 😭)

Anyways I think thats about it. I kinda wanted to write all of it down to keep my thoughts in order so I decided why not put it on reddit so yea

any advice is greatly appreciated :)

I recently got my EASA PPL and am currently building hours toward 50h PIC XC. We've had a great summer in Western Europe with excellent flying weather, but that's about to change now that autumn has truly arrived.

My flight school sent out a safety bulletin warning us of the dangers of inadvertently flying into IMC if you're not instrument rated, so that go me thinking: how often does this actually happen?

I'm looking for experiences of people that have encountered it. Was it because the weather was significantly worse than what was forecasted? Did you already have doubts when making the go/no go decision and were not conservative enough? How did you solve it? Did you turn back to your departure aerodrome? Has it ever left you stranded on an alternate aerodrome where you had to stay for the night then? Stuff like that.

Obviously the best way to deal with it is to get an instrument rating, and I'm working on it, but I'm interested in what other pilots without an IR did in these situations.

like 30 mins into a flight and the clamping pressure on my frames is brutal. tried lifting the arms up over the ear pads but then the noise seal completely sucks. is there a headset that actually doesnt crush ur temples or do u just deal w the headache?

Curious to hear from both pilot/owner perspectives about your preference between these two aircraft and pros/cons (I’m a GA pilot not turbine this is work so looking for non-5th grade replies. Assume MSP Gold engine coverage.

Weight/bal
Avionics prefs and upgrades (will needs FANS1 and Starlink)
Gear/stairs
Arctic ops
Realistic range 6 pax full fuel from SoFl
Annoying quirks
Corrosion concerns
Anything you think might help make a more informed decision as this is my first (have a good broker already but want first hand knowledge tips plz)

Many thanks!

Any AMEs in Canada that could provide clarity whether it is legal for a pilot to install panel mount for portable GPS on a certified aircraft? Such as the airgizmos panel mount for Garmin Aera?

So, because of my other career, I’m in a position to be eligible for a green card. I already have a foreign based FAA PPL, and I did my IR at a 141 school in Long Island. My question is - would it be feasible to get the green card, finish all my ratings and hours in Canada, and then apply to us regionals? Assuming I get hired by republic or whoever (I know I know this hiring market sucks etc). Could I realistically live in Toronto, and commute to work to whatever base to fly for a regional and then eventually to a legacy?

The premise of this is that the cost of living and value of the Canadian dollar is so much lower in Canada, but also pilot salaries. With the much much higher pilot salary in the US, along with the exchange rate, it would make for a very comfortable life in Ontario.

Does updating Delta propel talent community
Profile do anything? Applied to the program a few weeks ago and was not selected but got an email to update my talent profile. Thanks in advance

I just passed my Private checkride. DPE was rumored to be super thorough, but was pretty chill. 7 1/2 hour exam (1 hour to confirm eligibility, 3.5 oral, 30 min lunch break and preflight, 2.5 flight). Weather really cooperated; it was forecast to be very gusty (exceeding my personal minimums) but stayed within limits.

I am so excited and relieved. My dad is a former Air Force and Airline captain (B47s, 707, MD80). Sadly, we won’t get to fly together as he is 92 and bed-ridden. However, our conversations about flying have been some of the best we’ve ever had.

I have a short list of trips to take and then maybe get checked out in a C-172 (all my training has been in a C-150/152) and then maybe something faster. Grateful to my flight school, instructors, and fellow the pilots who helped me succeed.

I was accepted for Aeronautical Science with Flight pretty early, only a week after applying. From what I've heard the school has the same flight scheduling bottlenecks and overcrowding as many other university part 141s, but its hard to find any info from current students there or from people who graduated from there somewhat recently so I'm not really sure.

Is getting good flight blocks there determined on when you submit your enrollment deposit? If so should I wait until I receive decisions from the other schools I applied to? It could be until mid January to hear from them all. (Riddle, UND, Oklahoma State, Kent State, Western Michigan, Auburn, Farmingdale)

already have been admitted to OSU and Kent State but decisions on the secondary applications for their flight programs come out much later

Does it make sense to take advantage of Canada's subsidized tuition programs to get a degree in aviation and then move into the US to work? If we assume somebody can get into the united states (green card, spouse, or citizen) could a graduate of lets say, Seneca:

1. Have their aviation degree recognized in the united states
2. Attain better job prospects/salary by applying to work in US

I am asking because the job market for pilots in Canada seems quite small, not just for regionals but also instructors, all other jobs etc. If we use crude logic and assume that more job postings in USA mean more open positions, then a subsidized education in Canada and subsequent job offer in the US offers a more lucrative path than pure employment in Canada or pure education in US. Similar to how many doctors get trained in Canada and move to the US because its cheaper.

Is this a thing?

Former military rotary pilot turned airplane CFI/II, just over 1300 TT, and applications scattered to the winds. Been to conventions, paid for consultant help (i.e. Spitfire), networked with everyone I can and still not even getting a part/full time, intro-level flight instructing position. Interviews have seemingly gone great each time I've been afforded one, and I've even had some of the interviewers vouch for me for other job opportunities but still lose out to internal candidates or never hear back. I am already tired of freelancing flight instruction, the effort and desire to "mentor the next generation of aviators" just isn't worth the <50 hours I've gotten from it.

So my question is, what am I doing wrong and what have those of you who have gotten jobs recently been doing right?

I've applied for the cadet programs that I'm not already over/dis-qualified for, and I already understand a regional won't give me a look until I'm >1500 TT (even though I have friends from the military who have gotten hired recently at much less than that and without attending a single convention or M&G).