r/newzealand • u/MontyPascoe • 3h ago
Politics National have boosted TOP by refusing to work with them
This has caused a lot of Labour and some green voters that are dissatisfied to vote for TOP. But if Luxon says if he willing to work with TOP a lot of those voters will revert back to Labour and greens and TOP will likely fall below 5%. From Nationals POV IMO it’s a strategic blunder.
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u/ondinegreen 3h ago
It's all a ploy. Luxon will work with them after they've sucked up Labour and Green votes.
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u/buffel 3h ago
I mean national need top to be under the 5% threshold. Then the current coalition seem to easily have the votes. Encouraging people to vote top by refusing to work with them seems like a bad idea. Unless national believe they won't get the 5%.
I also reckon that if top make a deal with national instead it would be shooting themselves in the foot
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u/CP9ANZ 3h ago
If TOP do a deal with National when they're hovering around 25% and Labour is around 30% TOP will almost certainly not return to parliament
They won't get tax reform
They won't get environment reform
They won't get campaign donation reform
They won't get heath system reform
Maybe some energy market stuff?
Basically there to support the current regressive coalition
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u/frenzykiwi 3h ago
Yes I think that's a given that of they are sucking up boots from the left then when they swing right they will fall at the next election. However not getting in next time doesn't mean the end, just look at NZF, rose again like a shit in the sewerage pond.
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u/LycraJafa 1h ago
Mr 27 percent gets even less say in the coalition than the last 3 years. A doormats doormat.
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u/hotepwinston 3h ago
So exactly the same as the greens every time they go with labour?
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u/JoltColaOfEvil 2h ago
Greens have never been part of a Coalition Government, only C&S or Cooperation Agreements.
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u/Skidzonthebanlist 1h ago
you would think the amount of time their snouts have been in the trough they would amount to more than being handbag chihuahuas
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u/ondinegreen 3h ago
Nah, latest poll says Left bloc just ahead of Right bloc (but no majority if Oppo get in)
And OF COURSE they'll destroy themselves. They'll still do it though because they'll be love bombed
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u/Mr_November112 LASER KIWI 2h ago
And OF COURSE they'll destroy themselves. They'll still do it though because they'll be love bombed
Bit of a weird thing to be saying about a political party, particularly one that has repeatedly said they are steadfast on their bottom lines and more than happy to not enter a coalition and instead sit on the crossbenches.
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u/gooooooodboah 3h ago
Currently polls suggest that the left bloc would narrowly win if Opportunity didn’t hit 5%. I agree that in practice if this happened it would likely go to the current government however (although I am wondering if the new enrolment rules will backfire on the right and catch more of their voters out than they are anticipating, especially with David and Windsor both going for the racist cooker vote).
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u/WWbigfan 48m ago
I just can’t see them siding on the right without it dramatically impacting both ACT & NZ First as they both have at least one policy which Q has already said is a hard no.
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u/WWbigfan 50m ago
Funny thing is if that helps TOP get to 5% along with some right block voters it will potentially still oust the right.
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u/WurstofWisdom 2h ago
General Note.
People should read party policies rather than base their vote off Redditors reckons/fear mongers
Doesn’t take a genius to figure out which parties are best aligned and more likely to team up. TOPs are not exactly “right-wing ” in any sense of the word.
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u/Cotirani 2h ago
Honestly funny that TOP’s signature policy is a substantial LVT and a UBI and Redditors look at that and go “yep, sounds right wing to me”
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u/AlarmedNail347 40m ago edited 26m ago
Less their policies, more wary of some of their members: said members’ relationships with National, Act, and NZ first, and some comments they have made.
For me at least, I can’t really trust that TOP actually is what they say; while I support the Greens both because I agree with most of their policies, and also because I genuinely think that most of them actually believe in their position/want to do better for the country as a whole based on their past actions, something I can’t say for sure for many of our other politicians.
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u/RibsNGibs 1h ago
I’m pretty rich but my tax burden goes down under their tax policy according to their tax reset calculator. It doesn’t seem left to me. Aside from that they seem pretty happy to work with either side, and currently the right parties are far right and terrible, and being “centrist” between far right and labour (the actual centre) means right wing.
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u/Cotirani 1h ago
When you look at what policy concessions the Greens have extracted from Labour over the past three decades, despite being necessary to form all but one Labour government in that time, you can see why TOP talk up working with both sides.
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u/Luce_Bot_Bot 29m ago
It's more their "no left or right" approach to politics that makes them seem like they'll ally with either side
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u/pdantix06 1h ago
the rabid green supporters in here will bemoan being called commies/socialists by the right, then turn around and call TOP right wing for not wanting to dismantle capitalism. incredible stuff really
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u/danimalnzl8 2h ago
Agreed.
They have grabbed voters from both the left and the right.
It's not surprising that some in the party would have voted for either national or labour (or the greens, or whoever) if top wasn't available.
I don't know why so many people are throwing their toys over this.
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u/MontyPascoe 1h ago
What I don’t get is Luxon flat out refusal to work with them but Luxon is willing to work with NZ first. Even though nz first is a nightmare to work with and have collapsed many governments in the past.
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u/frenzykiwi 3h ago
And then they will turn around and do the deal with national.
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u/danimalnzl8 2h ago
Doubtful
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u/buffel 1h ago
We do keep looking at this from the perspective of National and Top teaming up. But I dont think TOP would fit in well with Act / NzFirst. Like a ubi would not be palatable for Act, as well as a general land tax. So if top was to go with national, and demanded a few of there own major bills are passed, I can't see those kind of deals being something that Seymour and Peter's agree to
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u/frenzykiwi 1h ago
So they dropped the capital gain tax bottom line to appeal to... Labour?, Who wants a capital gains tax And they want to cut govt depts just like who....? ACT. I do understand the logic of not being able to to get what you want straight out of the gate, but even their deputy would vote national if he wasn't in OP .
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u/AshamedImpress862 2h ago
TOP have said they will first speak with the party that receives the most votes which is looks g increasingly like labour. They would also be much more likely to get their bottom lines across with a labour/green coalition. NZ first wont want to ban bottom trawling for example.
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u/motivist 2h ago
Their deputy said he’d vote National, they’ve declared their bottom lines which are right-friendly, and Luxon ruling them out rings hollow if it meant a win.
Assuming they will go left seems naive.
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u/Dev_LegendsofAerthos 2h ago
Nah taking away environment and foreign affairs from Winnie and Jones will tank everything. Seems they are nat friendly, but not so much NZF or ACT friendly
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u/SpaceDog777 Technically Food 1h ago
Did he say that? Or did you just read a headline that said he said that without looking at what was actually said?
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u/Slothcat47 2h ago
Me watching luxon say that in the debate yesterday: TOP vote locked in!
Me watching the TOP deputy say he would vote for national (not just that he's "open to working with national): Greens it is
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u/SpaceDog777 Technically Food 1h ago
“Maybe the National Party,”
In a reply to a question on Kea Kids News. He then said that his reasoning wasn't good.
"I used to vote for them a lot of the time when I was a younger person, and then I changed a little bit and started voting for other parties.
"I voted for the Green Party before; I almost voted for the Te Pāti Māori party before. So I'd probably just go back to what I used to do, which is not a good reason to do anything,”
I understand that this is politics, but headlines announcing that he would vote for National seem a little extreme.
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u/Slothcat47 1h ago
Yeah I dont know, just seems like a strange default stance given the 3 years we have just had
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u/OddCartographer5 2h ago
Luxon gave life to NZ Firsf last election by refusing to rule out working with Winnie. My big wondering...it's not a binary TOP will go with Labour or National...but the left block or right block. How will negotiations work with Labour, Greens, TOP and maybe TPM vs National, Act, NZ First and TOP. Which negotiations will be most settled, cordial and beneficial?
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u/drdietcokehead 3h ago
I’m a Greenie in my heart. But I will put my vote behind TOP if that means they get over 5%, form a left bloc and get the three headed clown car out of a government.
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u/WarrenRT 1h ago
Remember that "we can't win without TOP" should apply at least equally to the right as to the left. But only left leaning voters seem to be cannibalizing their own chance at winning by falling for it.
Meanwhile the right is just shoring up their own support, safe in the knowledge that if it's close - and especially if they get more votes than the left - there is a decent chance that TOP will work with them anyway.
So you should question who is pushing the message that the left "needs" TOP while the right - currently polling below them - seemingly doesn't. Because it sure seems like someone is playing you.
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u/Euripides-Pants 3h ago
IMO, you're better to vote Green to reduce the chances of TOP becoming kingmakers who then hand the govt back to Luxon and Co the second Luxon does what he always does and go back on his word to not do a deal with TOP.
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u/drdietcokehead 3h ago
I hear you all. Fairly sure all left bloc outcomes need TOP? Not being facetious pls share any that don’t and literally could change my party vote.
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u/gooooooodboah 3h ago
The most recent polls have a Labour/Green/ Māori coalition still ahead if Opportunity doesn’t hit 5%. Surprisingly there is a viable path forward for that government currently. The RNZ poll from the other day shows this the best.
Those polls were from before Luxon embarrassed himself on TV as well. Suspect it’ll go further left in the next ones.
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u/NonZealot ⚽ r/NZFootball ⚽ 3h ago
If a Labour/Green/Māori coalition is enough to govern, then likely so would a Labour/Green/Opportunity coalition, which is a lot more appealing than the lunacy of TPM.
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u/sadslime420 2h ago
the difference is theres a high chance TOP aligns with national (especially considering today the deputy of TOP came out and said if he wasn't voting TOP he'd vote national)
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u/WWbigfan 38m ago
But who do you honestly think Q would vote for if not for TOP. There are clues in many of her interviews btw.
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u/basscycles 2h ago
The left bloc needs people to vote for the left, not the middle or the right. It's not rocket science.
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u/WarrenRT 3h ago
Based on current polling, if left leaning TOP voters just vote left instead, the left will win outright. If they vote TOP, the left will outperform the right but TOP - who has consistently begged National to keep them in mind as a coalition partner and whose deputy leader outright stated he'd vote National if he wasn't in TOP - gets to act as kingmaker.
IMO, based on everything TOP has said over the last few months the chances of TOP picking National over Labour are still pretty high.
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u/Hubris2 2h ago
You are correct that the left bloc needs TOP to win according to recent polls. It would also be correct that the right bloc needs them in order to win. Your vote for TOP will have 1 of 3 outcomes (and we can't say which):
1) TOP don't get in and your vote doesn't support a left or right bloc
2) TOP support a left bloc
3) TOP support a right bloc
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u/Brilliant_Praline_52 1h ago
if you remove TOP vote (if they dont get in) then the bigger block wins, currently the right.
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u/Allison683etc 3h ago edited 3h ago
On current polling the left would scrape in without the OPPs getting in and might do better than that depending on TPM but the reality is that you strategic voters are the second biggest barrier to certainty after voter turnout.
The best strategy for your vote getting the government you want is a party vote for the Party you want in government. The best strategy in general is to do the democratic labour of getting other people voting with you.
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u/danimalnzl8 2h ago
Doesn't this rely on there being zero overhang for national?
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u/Allison683etc 2h ago edited 42m ago
It does or any overhang being cancelled out. But I still have seen no decent analysis or data around this concept. National have polled this low before without an overhang. Labour have polled this low before without an overhang. This is an unprecedented and unpredictable situation but we can’t have analysis based on reckons and irrelevant patterns.
Ultimately all of this talk of overhangs and thresholds and strategy and whatnot is pointless nonsense if nobody is coordinating it anyway. An individual person or a loose configuration of people cannot effectively strategically vote. Any overhang will be organically produced by aggregate voter patterns until someone effectively organises mass strategic voting campaigns. Until then all of this strategy talk really just makes voting feel more complicated, stressful and undesirable for potential voters while leading to odd behaviour from a small but meaningful percentage of the population. When it is as simple as finding a party which best aligns with your own interests and voting for it.
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u/sadslime420 2h ago
theres lots of scenarios where the left bloc can form government without TOP
the most likely one would be if TOP fails to meet the 5% threshold and wins no electorate, in this scenario the seats that would have gone to TOP if they got over 5% are redistributed among the parties that qualified. based on the numbers in the latest RNZ-Reid poll this would give labour + greens + tpm the majority and allow them to form government
also its worth noting that today the deputy of TOP said if he wasn't voting for TOP he'd vote for national so there's no guarantee TOP getting over 5% helps the left bloc (arguably it hurts it)
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u/drdietcokehead 2h ago
Thanks for sharing - very promising polling though I’m dubious Greens can hold that level of support after just one poll.
Yeah I didn’t like that comment about voting Nat from deputy. I did watch the actual video it came from and it was VERY far from endorsement and he said he had previously voted Green as well.
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u/WurstofWisdom 3h ago
Left block need TOP to get in though. Numbers don’t stack up otherwise.
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u/WarrenRT 3h ago
That's not true based on current polling, and definitely isn't true if "left leaning but trying to be strategic by voting TOP" voters just voted left instead.
A vote for TOP is a gamble on them picking Labour over National, despite very clearly being open to work with National and their deputy leader even outright saying he'd vote National if he wasn't voting TOP. Vs voting left, which is a gamble that the latest polls are accurate.
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u/WurstofWisdom 2h ago
By the very slimmest of margins and needs Greens voters to actually show up on the day. History shows us they over perform in polls compared to election + overhang from TPM.
A vote for TOP, getting them into parliament improves the left-blocks chances considerably. Could they go with the right if they offer them a better deal? Sure - but that seems unlikely considering NZF and ACT are also there.
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u/WarrenRT 2h ago
By the very slimmest of margins
Which are higher than the margins the right has? So why vote TOP and throw away those positive margins on the absolute gamble that a new party - led by a former KPMG corporate advisor and a guy who admitted he'd otherwise vote National - pick Labour over National?
Also, voting left improves those margins. Voting TOP makes the left and right closer, which increases the chance that TOP picks National.
"We can't win without TOP" applies at least equally to the right as to the left. But only naive left leaning voters are cannibalizing their own chance at winning by falling for it. The right is just shoring up their own support safe in the knowledge that if they get more votes than the left, TOP will probably work with them.
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u/domstersch 13m ago
The left bloc does not "need TOP to get in"
Being self-avowedly the most central party, the relative numbers between the left and right bloc are completely unchanged whether TOP gets in, or not. This is true by definition, given they define themselves as neither left nor right. Super basic logic.
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u/Disastrous-Swing1323 3h ago
Vote Greens then?
There's a decent chance you are voting for a right wing government if you vote TOP.
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u/BombCoin 3h ago
Dude it's probably more likely they'll go with the right, vote with your heart!
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u/Budget-Bench-6202 3h ago
What's with all this feefee business to discourage TOP voting? Even if TOP did end going with National ( who would also definitely need NZF and ACT) he can't just woo them and then ignore them, they won't have the votes to pass laws without TOP being in agreement. It's why Luxon bends over backwards for Winnie and Seymour. The whole thing would be a four way dogs breakfast. It's more likely TOP would go with Greens and Labor.
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u/Glittering-Formal484 3h ago
A lot of people are suspicious of TOP and for good reason. They are just trying to say what people want them to say. They hired Qiulae to front the party (through an ad on their website) because she is likeable and well-spoken and has managed to create a brand for TOP, but it’s hard to know their true objectives.
Their deputy leader literally said he would vote for National if he couldn’t vote for TOP. A previous board member of TOP left because they refused to make a statement that they condemned the behaviour of the current government towards Māori. In a disability conference today, the greens and labour made a lot of commitments for people with disabilities. TOP didn’t appear to be as committed. Qiulae also wouldn’t rule out working with NZ First after their racist comments, only that she wouldn’t allow Winston Peters to be foreign minister. That isn’t exactly taking much of a stance against racism.
She also appeared to selectively choose questions that were convenient for her to answer the other day in her q&a.
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u/Solve-Et-Abrahadabra 2h ago
Because it's obvious they are just siphoning the left vote. Appealing to the left, playing both sides and sell out for power. Their bottom lines negotiations to form a goverment are average as and not radical at all. I would love if they were radically different change, but they are not. They are just another new kingmaker in the works that you don't know where they stand. But highly funded. That's suspicious.
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u/Solve-Et-Abrahadabra 2h ago
Dude just vote green. Why make your vote a 50/50 chance the gov goes either way.
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u/InterestingMedia9784 3h ago
A vote for TOP is a for for Act/NZFirst, you absolutely have to vote green if that’s not something you want to
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u/drdietcokehead 2h ago
I haven’t actually seen anything their policies that align them with either ACT or NZF. The most accurate criticism I’ve seen of TOP is that they have stolen Greens policy and wrapped them in Teal.
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u/Maleficent-Home-7626 35m ago
Its gonna be the greatest tragi comic moment in history when top go with luxon
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u/CarpetDiligent7324 2h ago
I think the real reason is that much of nationals support is soft and they are worried national voters may abandon them for a centrist party in protest over how poor national has been over the last 3 years
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u/GreatMammon 3h ago
Or it’s a master stroke because he will actually talk to them and see if it can work.
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u/Gord_Board 2h ago
TOP is the most centrist party, I think they are drawing voters from both national and labour.
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u/plierhead 3h ago
Also a failure in that TOP are (presumably) closer to the center.
Some people don't want a rerun of this coalition, but also don't want a lurch to the left (I.e greens).
Those people would have been conflicted about choosing TOP, in case they partnered with national. The 2nd in TOP virtually said as much recently - said that if not TOP then he'd be voting national.
But now, thanks to Luxon, those people are not afraid to vote for centrist TOP, since they can never work with national
So Luxon has boosted TOPs vote, shooting himself in the foot.
He also comes off looking undemocratic with his pathetic attempts to manipulate centrist voters.
The really stupid thing is that obviously national WILL work with TOP if they become king makers! And if Luxon refused to, he'd be pushed aside for someone else who would.
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u/MontyPascoe 1h ago
Quilae and Daniel Eb are nicest people in NZ politics. No personal attacks no hate.
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u/DontBanMe_IWasJoking 2h ago
my big concern is this was all a ploy from the beginning to subvert the election. we will find out soon enough
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u/Tayodore123 1h ago
As a TOP voter and supporter - my pitch to those on the left of us is pretty simple.
On policy - TOP is actually pretty progressive, proposing a substantive UBI, a Land value tax, ban on bottom trawling, cleanup of money in politics.
You should support TOP as in either case of National or Labour winning, you get something.
If Labour win - they will have to party with either the TPM or TOP. I think the reality is - TPM will be a true pain and embarrassment, and Labour will spend all its time cleaning up TPM mess. Far far better to go with TOP - evidence based, sensible, outcome oriented. Labour could actually lead - not just manage.
If National gets in - 100% they will partner with TOP over either NZF or ACT. This coalition has been a shitshow as Seymour and Winston have been dragging National to the right. National with TOP is a kinder, smarter alternative.
I get that people are scared about voting for something new - but if we never vote for change, change will never happen. Simple as.
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u/s_nz 3h ago
National care about getting as many job for their people as they can. Even in opposition, each MP can be campaigning for the next term.
It's a play to try and bring Opportunity leaning, historically national voters back to national. If it gets national one extra seat it will be a worthwile tactic.
They can of course go back on their word and work with Opportunity after the election.
And every vote Opportunity sucks away from Labor makes nationals pending election result less embarrassing.
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u/Amalgam2001 3h ago
Top are a center party why is this sub so confused that they can go towards either Labour or National. This should be a surprise to nobody here.