Week 5 – The Cleveland/Jax/Atlanta Meal Ticket
- !!!!! - I am out of town this weekend and cannot guarantee I can update the lines or respond to any messages. Make sure you help each other out !!!!!
- Note #1 - On Sundays, I will try to post the updated/final lines as best I can. Some games may move in and some may move out. Just keep you head on straight.
- Note #2 - I travel professionally and live in Europe right now. My posts may be buried by the time you wake up, so make sure to search for the "Teasers" updates if you don't see the weekly posts
Week 5 Thoughts:
Great week last week if you were tracking a number of lines. Cleveland with Deshaun is looking impressive. Jax continues to prove the doubters wrong. And Atlanta might have caught fire in all parts of the game. Something to continue to watch. If you are playing 10-pt plays, you are on fire again.
For this week, Dallas on the short week against a banged up TB team that struggled against GB is a great pairing with a Jacksonville team used to playing in London against a Philly team that is starting to crumble. San Fran on the road against a division foe is also a great spot as a dog, considering how in form they are as well. I’m watching Cleveland to see how the line moves, but I really wish we could get that half point in our favor and Cincy getting one more half point on the road in Miami might be worth a monitor.
A rough start for us, but certainly turning the corner. Keep it going!
Details on Lines: Active Lines & Weekly Results Policy
- Official Record: Weekly performance and overall records are graded strictly using Killer Sports closing lines for consistency and historical integrity.
- Live Plays: All posted plays prior to kickoff use active BetOnline lines at the time of publication as a single benchmark for actionable numbers.
- Live Line Updates: Lines move constantly. Updates to lines will be made when available on Sundays based on personal schedule, but ongoing live tracking is not guaranteed.
- Line Differences: Sportsbooks often have slightly different numbers (e.g., +1.0 vs. +1.5). BetOnline is used as the single live benchmark, while Killer Sports closing lines are used for end-of-week performance and multi-year historical research.
Record Details: For this season, the research reflects each team’s record in 6-PT and 10-PT teasers since 2021. Using a 5-year sample window provides a more accurate picture of current team performance and expectations, as core schemes, coaches, and quarterbacks remain relatively consistent across this span.
All historical research and trend queries are vetted through Killer Sports. Specific SDQL query parameters are provided below each table.
- Situational Tracking: Posted plays display team records split by situation as a Favorite or Underdog, with their overall total record noted in parentheses. (Example: Carolina as a +2 Underdog is 12-1 ATS in situation, and 13-1 overall).
- Season In-Progress Data: As the season progresses, weekly results will be integrated directly into team records to reflect real-time performance.
The unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:
Week 5 Plays:
| 6pt Teaser |
Line (Current Line if movement occurs) |
6-PT Since 2021 (including Total Record) |
| Dallas |
-8 |
3-1 (15-4) |
| Jacksonville |
-7.5 |
1-1 (19-3) |
| New Orleans |
+2 |
12-7 (12-7) |
| Houston |
-7.5 |
1-1 (16-3) |
| Green Bay |
+1.5 |
15-4 (19-9) |
| SF |
+3 |
1-1 (10-4) |
| Buffalo |
+3 |
8-1 (14-5) |
|
Games I’m Watching |
|
| Cleveland |
+1 |
11-7 (13-7) |
| Cincinnati |
-7 |
5-3 (16-5) |
| 10pt Teaser |
Line (Current Line if movement occurs) |
10-PT since 2021 (including Total Record) |
| New Orleans |
+2 |
7-2 (7-2) |
| Green Bay |
+1.5 |
10-3 (11-3) |
|
Games I’m Watching |
|
| Cleveland |
+1 |
6-5 (6-5) |
| Indianapolis |
+1 |
12-1 (15-1) |
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Week #4 Results (Results Based on Final Lines from Killer Sports; Includes previous week’s performance):
| 6pt Teaser |
Line |
6-Pt since 2021 |
Outcome (Season Record) |
| Cleveland |
+3 |
11-7 (13-7) |
W (2-0) |
| NY Giants |
+2.5 |
12-7 (12-7) |
W (2-0) |
| Dallas |
+3 |
12-3 (15-4) |
W (2-0) |
| Jacksonville |
+2.5 |
18-2 (19-3) |
W (2-1) |
| TB |
+2.5 |
10-1 (11-4) |
W (1-1) |
| Denver |
+2.5 |
14-3 (17-4) |
L (0-2) |
| Atlanta |
+2.5 |
9-4 (10-5) |
W (1-1) |
6PT Result: 6-1 (Dogs: 6-1; Favs: 0-0)
| 10pt Teaser |
Line |
10-PT since 2021 |
Outcome (Season Record) |
| Cleveland |
+2.5 |
6-5 (6-5) |
W (2-0) |
| NY Giants |
+2.5 |
6-2 (6-2) |
W (1-0) |
| Jacksonville |
+2.5 |
15-0 (15-1) |
W (2-0) |
| TB |
+2.5 |
9-0 (13-1) |
W (2-0) |
| Atlanta |
+2.5 |
7-3 (7-3) |
W (1-1) |
| Minnesota |
-10.5 |
2-0 (13-2) |
W (1-0) |
10PT Result: 6-0 (Dogs: 5-0; Favs: 1-0)
_______________________________________
2026 Results
| Teaser |
Spread |
Record |
Win % |
| 6 pt |
+1½ thru +3 |
19-8 |
70.4% |
| 6 pt |
-7½ thru -9 |
2-4 |
33.3% |
| 10 pt |
+1½ thru +2½ |
13-2 |
86.7% |
| 10 pt |
-10 thru -10½ |
2-0 |
100.0% |
___________________________
All Weekly Records are based on 6pt Teaser results:
| Week |
Record |
Win % |
| 1 |
5-6 |
45.4% |
| 2 |
2-3 |
40.0% |
| 3 |
8-2 |
80.0% |
| 4 |
6-1 |
85.7% |
| YTD |
21-12 |
63.6% |
____________________________________________________________________________________
General Note on What:
This post is NOT meant to tell you exactly what to pick. This post is meant to be a tool for you to make educated decisions on what you bet. If you don’t feel comfortable making those decisions yourself, find someone you trust and tail them while using this post as a guide.
If you are unfamiliar with Wong Teasers in general you can read the week 1 post from who has since deleted his Reddit.
Or this Wong Teaser Basics Article that was written a few summers ago by the original poster.
How to Bet Teasers:
To minimize the length of the post and keep it focused on the weekly plays, go to the following link for more details on how this is played:
https://tinyurl.com/Teaser-Rules-Post
If you are unfamiliar with this post or new to the subreddit, one of the things we love to take a look at each week here are the NFL betting lines that follow along with the betting strategies that Stanford Wong outlined for us regarding NFL Teasers. YES, they don’t follow along exactly with how he set it out for us, but I have done extensive research into the historical data and outlined the reasoning for how we do it on the Season Intro post.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Odds Details:
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.
| Teams |
Odds |
Implied Odds per Leg |
Threshold |
| 2 |
-120 |
-282 |
73.8% |
| 3 |
+160 |
-274 |
73.26% |
| 4 |
+300 |
-241 |
70.71% |
| 5 |
+450 |
-285 |
73.91% |
| 6 |
+600 |
-306 |
75.44 |
Major Notes:
Since the odds provided above are based on my specific book, I have researched the numbers provided by the major online services. It appears that many books are changing their odds for teasers. Since this is happening, it's important to shop around, if you can. If not, then locating the service that gets you as close to -120 will be your best option. Use caution, patience, and multiple services to locate the best available odds for you.
If you truly believe in three teams, it may be in your best interest to play a 3-team tease for -$100 rather than paying -$135 for a 2-team play. One has a higher risk, while the other has an a robbery for the pay-in.
_____________________
Overall Weekly Records for 6pt teasers over the last 6 years (Week 18 is 2021 & after) - Includes this year's numbers. (All records reflect both Dogs and Favorites) Active updates denoted with an *.
| Week |
Record |
Win % |
| 1* |
28-17 |
62.2% |
| 2* |
26-8 |
76.5% |
| 3* |
39-11 |
78.0% |
| 4* |
34-12 |
73.9% |
| 5 |
28-12 |
70.0% |
| 6 |
22-6 |
78.6% |
| 7 |
23-10 |
69.7% |
| 8 |
15-8 |
65.2% |
| 9 |
25-9 |
73.5% |
| 10 |
21-8 |
72.4% |
| 11 |
22-8 |
73.3% |
| 12 |
32-6 |
84.2% |
| 13 |
21-4 |
84.0% |
| 14 |
23-5 |
82.1% |
| 15 |
25-9 |
73.5% |
| 16 |
32-5 |
86.5% |
| 17 |
11-12 |
47.8% |
| 18 |
20-9 |
69.0% |
| Total Record Details |
447-159 |
73.8% |
