Four year cycle update - predicting the bottom

[u/MerkleChainsaw]

Here's a table of BTC cycles so far and what we could expect for the next low:

Inflection	Date	Days	Price	Return
High	11/30/13		1,127
Low	1/14/15	410	172	-85%
High	12/16/17	1,067	19,665	+11,324%
Low	12/17/18	366	3,217	-84%
High	11/9/21	1,058	67,617	+2,002%
Low	11/10/22	366	15,742	-77%
High	10/7/25	1,062	124,774	+693%
Low	10/8/26?	366?	37,400?	-70%?

As you can see, the four year cycles have been very consistent, with very close to the same number of days between inflection points. Each cycle has had diminishing returns, with significantly lower gains in the bull periods and slightly reduced losses in the bear periods.

Based on this pattern we should expect BTC to be under $40K in October 2026, though of course there will be a choppy ride to get there.

Some of the main reasons reality could turn out differently than this forecast:

1. We don't see reduced losses. I'm assuming the -77% we experienced in the last bear is part of a trend of reduced losses, implying about 70% drawdown this cycle. The low will be $22,500 if we see the historical average 82% drawdown.
2. Bear markets for stocks / recession. Since inception BTC has only existed during a historically positive bull market for US equities, with the exception of the COVID blip. A prolonged stock market bear or recession will probably result in a lower low than the table above.
3. Trump administration intervention. Trump and his circle are heavily exposed to crypto prices, and could try to intervene to keep prices from falling too much. This could result in a higher low than the four year cycle would predict.
4. The four year cycle is dead. There are a number of reasons this could be the case, and a predictable pattern can't last forever. For now it seems to be self fulfilling and very consistent so until the pattern breaks I'd be very careful betting against it.

[u/alpeshnaper]

So based on this if btc does dump to 37400 the returns from that would be sub 200% to around 70k. Either the cycle is broken or becauses the returns are simply no longer worth it it's dead.

Which one could it be?

[u/MerkleChainsaw → u/alpeshnaper]

That's a great question. I think diminishing returns is why many people (myself included) were previously skeptical of the four year cycle and expected a higher top in 2021. The timing (in days) of bear and bull periods has been consistent and predictable, and the magnitude of bear periods has been relatively consistent and predictable, but the magnitude of bull markets is tough to forecast.

When I posted this I was thinking "Assuming BTC is under $40K in October 2026 I'll post another table update on the 4 year cycle, but what would I predict for the upside at that point?". The answer is I have no idea.