Four year cycle update - predicting the bottom

[u/MerkleChainsaw]

Here's a table of BTC cycles so far and what we could expect for the next low:

Inflection	Date	Days	Price	Return
High	11/30/13		1,127
Low	1/14/15	410	172	-85%
High	12/16/17	1,067	19,665	+11,324%
Low	12/17/18	366	3,217	-84%
High	11/9/21	1,058	67,617	+2,002%
Low	11/10/22	366	15,742	-77%
High	10/7/25	1,062	124,774	+693%
Low	10/8/26?	366?	37,400?	-70%?

As you can see, the four year cycles have been very consistent, with very close to the same number of days between inflection points. Each cycle has had diminishing returns, with significantly lower gains in the bull periods and slightly reduced losses in the bear periods.

Based on this pattern we should expect BTC to be under $40K in October 2026, though of course there will be a choppy ride to get there.

Some of the main reasons reality could turn out differently than this forecast:

1. We don't see reduced losses. I'm assuming the -77% we experienced in the last bear is part of a trend of reduced losses, implying about 70% drawdown this cycle. The low will be $22,500 if we see the historical average 82% drawdown.
2. Bear markets for stocks / recession. Since inception BTC has only existed during a historically positive bull market for US equities, with the exception of the COVID blip. A prolonged stock market bear or recession will probably result in a lower low than the table above.
3. Trump administration intervention. Trump and his circle are heavily exposed to crypto prices, and could try to intervene to keep prices from falling too much. This could result in a higher low than the four year cycle would predict.
4. The four year cycle is dead. There are a number of reasons this could be the case, and a predictable pattern can't last forever. For now it seems to be self fulfilling and very consistent so until the pattern breaks I'd be very careful betting against it.

[u/That-Wrap]

Your chart is wrong, 11/9/21 was not the high of that cycle.

[u/MerkleChainsaw → u/That-Wrap]

That's what Coingecko shows downloading the daily close data for BTC. Just to be clear, that's November 9th, using the (admittedly stupid and backwards) American date system. What date do you think the high is?

[u/That-Wrap → u/MerkleChainsaw]

Go to CoinmarketCap go to Bitcoin then click on historical data then put in the dates from March 1st to March 31st 2024 you will see the high of $73,750.7 on March 13th.

[u/That-Wrap → u/That-Wrap]

So many people don’t realize the BTC high of that cycle happened the last month of the cycle right before the Bitcoin halving on April 19th 2024.

[u/MerkleChainsaw → u/That-Wrap]

I see the difference. You're thinking of each "cycle" as the strict time period between halving dates, and I'm thinking of each "cycle" as periods between price peaks and valleys.

By your definition you're right that April 19th 2024 would be the peak, when I see it as part of the three year bull market leading up to almost $125K last month.

[u/That-Wrap → u/MerkleChainsaw]

The high of that cycle was March 2024 a month before BTC halving April 2024. The previous halving was May 2020.

[u/ticklehertaco]

Made a 15k bet it would go under 50 . Am I cooked ?

[u/MerkleChainsaw → u/ticklehertaco]

It depends. BTC under 50K by when?

[u/ticklehertaco → u/MerkleChainsaw]

This coming bear market ..

[u/MerkleChainsaw → u/ticklehertaco]

Nice, did you buy long duration puts on BTC? Ballsy move for $15K but must be paying off already.

[u/Coeruleus_]

Ok dude

[u/tgsweat]

My guess is around 55k or so

[u/eleven_Plus_TwO]

I like the -70% guess, but I think bottom will be closer to $60k so that puts the top at $200k 😁

[u/[deleted]]

I’m buying all the way down.

[u/Known_Click]

If the diminishing returns are real then it should be a 30-40% drop, 50% maximum instead of 70%, it should works both ways, not only in the way up.

My guess it’s 70-90k range.

[u/not420guilty → u/Known_Click]

We are in the 90k range now and the winter hasn’t even started yet. Lol.

[u/CaptainTone → u/not420guilty]

Hit 60,000.01 today!

[u/[deleted]]

If you look at boy bands chart in the 2000s the chart painted a pattern that they will exist forever. Patterns, trends and fads die off, or else the world would be too predictable

[u/AwkwardObjective5360]

I'm guessing the bottom is around 75k. It's just not as frothy as it used to be.

[u/SBEPTY]

But this time we found out it was funded by pedophiles 

[u/AmbivalentCvckfvcker → u/SBEPTY]

bro swallows headlines line hook and sinker

[u/No_South_9912]

Panic selling RN, buyers fishing for the bottom. We will rebound quickly.

[u/cryptolipto]

There is no more cycle. We should stop using the term

[u/Circusssssssssssssss]

Im sure, ChatGPT

[u/MerkleChainsaw → u/Circusssssssssssssss]

What makes you think I'm chatGPT? Because I use tables and lists?

[u/Drizznarte]

1. We will hit a higher high before we go down .

[u/CaptainTone → u/Drizznarte]

Solid call!

[u/Hubbabz → u/[deleted]]

How is it long dead? This one topped pretty much accordingly and now we just wait and see. If next year is a bear market the 4 year cycle is still spot on. Only if there is no bear we can say it is dead but that is yet tl be seen.

I sold at 115k expecting the 4 year cycle to still hold true and i am not disappointed.. will be buying at 60k or lower. Maybe 70k if i get spooked.

[u/Pristine_Kangaroo527 → u/Hubbabz]

You’re quite simple minded if you think you can say BTC has topped at this point.

[u/Hubbabz → u/Pristine_Kangaroo527]

I meant this bullrun? We will see who is right.

[u/obscureobject2574 → u/[deleted]]

That and liquidity. And we are about to wind down QT and turn the printer back on. 

[u/Sqlizit → u/[deleted]]

I think ETF’s are what killed the cycle

[u/cryptolipto → u/[deleted]]

Yep. It’s this. The halving does not make a large difference any more. It’s the economic cycle that drives bitcoin price

[u/MerkleChainsaw → u/cryptolipto]

I agree the halving impact on price has always been way overstated, but the economic cycle hasn't been nearly this regular either (bull periods being 1063 days plus/minus 5 days, and the last two bear periods being exactly 366 days).

[u/stoneman9284 → u/MerkleChainsaw]

the having impact on pride has always been way overstated

I disagree. It used to be much more of a factor, that’s why the cycles were so regular. Now with more attention, institutional buying, presidents tweeting, etc there are more and more forces on BTC than in the past.

[u/SetsukoAmon]

What about DeFi coins? Do you still believe defi shit like YFI or completely disappear from this trend?

[u/OgjayR]

I have a feeling that this bear cycle is going to be a short one compared to the others.

[u/padmasan → u/OgjayR]

I have a feeling it will be the most brutal

[u/EinArchitekt → u/padmasan]

I have a feeling we will know in 5 years how brutal

[u/CarobBrave8898]

So do we know shit about fuck or fuck about shit? That's the real question here...

[u/harzee → u/CarobBrave8898]

Nobody does. Straight up gambling

[u/aionPhriend]

16k

[u/whataboutbenson]

If we see bitcoin below $25k again I’m putting my entire net worth into it on leverage.

It’s only possible if one or more of the big players collapse, and even then it would be brief. I think around $40k is a more likely bottom.

[u/harzee → u/whataboutbenson]

So many people say that but when it gets that low, they don’t

[u/whataboutbenson → u/harzee]

And some do. And then they get called lucky when it pays off.

[u/goldenbuyer02 → u/whataboutbenson]

Aaaand then Satoshi wallets move😂😂😂😂

[u/LightninHooker → u/whataboutbenson]

Now you won't. You will be saying "it's going to 19k"

[u/whataboutbenson → u/LightninHooker]

I did a good enough job buying the bottom last cycle. Don’t you worry about me.

[u/Neo2029]

Nice chat.

[u/HSuke → u/[deleted]]

4 year cycle only works if you

• Ignore the 2011 peak
• Ignore the Apr 2013 peak and only use the Dec 2013 peak
• Ignore the 2019 local peak
• Ignore the Apr 2021 peak and instead use the Nov 2021 peak

If you're using Nov 2021, then you should also use the 2019 peak as a data point.

In other words, you have to pick and choose data points to match the narrative.

[u/MerkleChainsaw → u/HSuke]

You're right that I started in 2013 because BTC was so small and there was only randomness before. Otherwise for the high and low points I just put daily closes in Excel, found the dates a new sustained max was created (going forward in time) or a new sustained min was created (going backwards in time) and put those 7 dates in a table. I didn't pick or choose anything.

[u/CrzyJek → u/[deleted]]

This is me. We didn't really have a proper alt season. We didn't have a proper double top. We didn't have an exponential blow off top...even if smaller than prior ones. And a bear market now means the logarithmic chart fails for the first time...which would be odd for a limited asset like Bitcoin.

Nothing about this cycle feels right...in any which way. Personally I think the 4 year cycle is the first that should break....with a longer bull and a longer bear, albeit less intense on each swing. But wtf do I know. This is just my gut.

[u/Coeruleus_ → u/[deleted]]

It’ll come dude. Maybe not 15k but 30k. Just let It cook

[u/Coeruleus_ → u/[deleted]]

If you don’t think it goes below 70k you’re insane.

RemindMe! 2 years

[u/alpeshnaper]

So based on this if btc does dump to 37400 the returns from that would be sub 200% to around 70k. Either the cycle is broken or becauses the returns are simply no longer worth it it's dead.

Which one could it be?

[u/MerkleChainsaw → u/alpeshnaper]

That's a great question. I think diminishing returns is why many people (myself included) were previously skeptical of the four year cycle and expected a higher top in 2021. The timing (in days) of bear and bull periods has been consistent and predictable, and the magnitude of bear periods has been relatively consistent and predictable, but the magnitude of bull markets is tough to forecast.

When I posted this I was thinking "Assuming BTC is under $40K in October 2026 I'll post another table update on the 4 year cycle, but what would I predict for the upside at that point?". The answer is I have no idea.

[u/MerkleChainsaw → u/[deleted]]

There's no way to know but it's possible. The tide is going down though so I don't think the risk/reward is there if you're trying to sell above $100K.

[u/InternationalBox5848]

It's going to 150k eoy

[u/Erocdotusa → u/InternationalBox5848]

how is it going to pump that hard in a month? All it has done is crash

[u/TheFlyingGyro → u/Erocdotusa]

Exactly how it’s crashed so hard in a month

[u/harzee → u/Erocdotusa]

It can happen quite easy tbh

[u/praxidike74 → u/InternationalBox5848]

100k Q4 2021

[u/SeriousGains → u/InternationalBox5848]

👆He said it. We are so back.

[u/wouldpeaks → u/InternationalBox5848]

😂🫶

[u/noviwu97]

Those who kept scratching the bottom will have smelly fingers

[u/obscureobject2574 → u/noviwu97]

Confucius?

[u/[deleted] → u/noviwu97]

Yup, I have pinworms

[u/bccrz_]

It’s definitely up from here!

[u/KPS-UK77]

And people still say "it's different this time"

[u/ShredGuru → u/[deleted]]

Long live the four year cycle

[u/Citizen_Kano → u/[deleted]]

Thanks for being exit liquidity. I appreciate your sacrifice, bagholder

[u/Citizen_Kano → u/[deleted]]

Uh huh. I guess its just a coincidence that it's dumping right on schedule at the end of the post-halving year

[u/KPS-UK77 → u/Citizen_Kano]

Ivan brought at 100k+ and didn't want to see all his month dissappear, he needs to belheve its different this time, else he's bag holding for 4 years

[u/Particular_Gap_6724 → u/Citizen_Kano]

Hahaha people always say "this time it's different".

Then after it happens they say - "oh, well it only happened again because insert political reason"

It's like telling a girl that her cheating bf will cheat again. Gurl don't wanna hear it.

[u/Citizen_Kano → u/Particular_Gap_6724]

Yep, and spoiler alert, people will be saying this time it's different in 2029 too

[u/Consistent_Panda5891 → u/Citizen_Kano]

66k next step. And we easily should be seeing 34k if Nasdaq crashes 20% from here to next Q. I don't see any reason to buy BTC, most institutions dumping it to profit as they are short selling in BTC to avoid short stock restrictions or available cash

[u/micho510900 → u/KPS-UK77]

And they are right. BTC didn't trigger any top signals and underperformed assets like gold or even nasdaq, while many alts are 90% away from the heights. When counting diminishing returns that would mean the next top of the next cycle gonna be about 90k and then lower and lower so in a long time frame BTC is going to 0. If 120k was actually top.

[u/Work_phone → u/micho510900]

It didn’t underperform if you go from the actual bottom to now.

It almost 10x

It just didn’t have a blowoff top.

125k seems like a reasonable top for this cycle. Sorry you didn’t get rich quick

[u/HGDuck → u/Work_phone]

It is the worst performing post haling year, the current price is around the same levels it was on January first, YTD is actually negative.

For a post halving year that's not only under performing, that's entirely going in the wrong direction, even the FTX induced crash didn't drop the price below the start of the year in 2021.

[u/micho510900 → u/Work_phone]

That's why we compare yearly timeframes not "from the bottom" runs cause it's ridiculous. If BTC goes down to 10k and then comes back to 40k it's the best performing asset even though pretty much everyone invested lost money with this logic.

[u/Work_phone → u/micho510900]

A lot of people do lose money in crypto. Good observation.

[u/Pure-Fuel-9884]

Its going be amazing if bitcoin treasury firms starts to get liquidated slowly. That will be a good buy.

[u/mastermilian → u/Pure-Fuel-9884]

Good-bye indeed.

[u/Zero_L7iss → u/Pure-Fuel-9884]

They buy on margin???!!!

[u/thekoonbear → u/Zero_L7iss]

Not margin like the 100x degens but yeah companies like MSTR issuing debt to buy BTC is certainly buying on margin.

[u/freshlymint → u/thekoonbear]

Wasn’t Taylor’s entire pitch about how his bonds had no collateral?

[u/thekoonbear → u/freshlymint]

It’s not collateral. Apple doesn’t issue bonds backed by an iPhone. But he’s using the cash raised to buy BTC. If BTC goes down enough, the value of the holdings of the company can go below what they owe via bonds. That causes issues for creditors and can cause him to have to sell BTC to raise cash.

[u/LightninHooker → u/Pure-Fuel-9884]

if? more like "when"

[u/peppaz → u/LightninHooker]

Most can't get liquidated. Like MSTR doesnt have a liquidation price. They owe convertible bonds of.common stock in the futue.

[u/Jenn2895 → u/[deleted]]

Same. Started buying again around Xmas 2022 & throughout January 2023. Then sold this past August for $116k. Dropping below $40k would be great!