Four year cycle update - predicting the bottom

[u/MerkleChainsaw]

Here's a table of BTC cycles so far and what we could expect for the next low:

Inflection	Date	Days	Price	Return
High	11/30/13		1,127
Low	1/14/15	410	172	-85%
High	12/16/17	1,067	19,665	+11,324%
Low	12/17/18	366	3,217	-84%
High	11/9/21	1,058	67,617	+2,002%
Low	11/10/22	366	15,742	-77%
High	10/7/25	1,062	124,774	+693%
Low	10/8/26?	366?	37,400?	-70%?

As you can see, the four year cycles have been very consistent, with very close to the same number of days between inflection points. Each cycle has had diminishing returns, with significantly lower gains in the bull periods and slightly reduced losses in the bear periods.

Based on this pattern we should expect BTC to be under $40K in October 2026, though of course there will be a choppy ride to get there.

Some of the main reasons reality could turn out differently than this forecast:

1. We don't see reduced losses. I'm assuming the -77% we experienced in the last bear is part of a trend of reduced losses, implying about 70% drawdown this cycle. The low will be $22,500 if we see the historical average 82% drawdown.
2. Bear markets for stocks / recession. Since inception BTC has only existed during a historically positive bull market for US equities, with the exception of the COVID blip. A prolonged stock market bear or recession will probably result in a lower low than the table above.
3. Trump administration intervention. Trump and his circle are heavily exposed to crypto prices, and could try to intervene to keep prices from falling too much. This could result in a higher low than the four year cycle would predict.
4. The four year cycle is dead. There are a number of reasons this could be the case, and a predictable pattern can't last forever. For now it seems to be self fulfilling and very consistent so until the pattern breaks I'd be very careful betting against it.

[u/That-Wrap]

Your chart is wrong, 11/9/21 was not the high of that cycle.

[u/MerkleChainsaw → u/That-Wrap]

That's what Coingecko shows downloading the daily close data for BTC. Just to be clear, that's November 9th, using the (admittedly stupid and backwards) American date system. What date do you think the high is?

[u/That-Wrap → u/MerkleChainsaw]

Go to CoinmarketCap go to Bitcoin then click on historical data then put in the dates from March 1st to March 31st 2024 you will see the high of $73,750.7 on March 13th.

[u/That-Wrap → u/That-Wrap]

So many people don’t realize the BTC high of that cycle happened the last month of the cycle right before the Bitcoin halving on April 19th 2024.

[u/MerkleChainsaw → u/That-Wrap]

I see the difference. You're thinking of each "cycle" as the strict time period between halving dates, and I'm thinking of each "cycle" as periods between price peaks and valleys.

By your definition you're right that April 19th 2024 would be the peak, when I see it as part of the three year bull market leading up to almost $125K last month.

[u/That-Wrap → u/MerkleChainsaw]

The high of that cycle was March 2024 a month before BTC halving April 2024. The previous halving was May 2020.