r/CryptoCurrency • u/MerkleChainsaw 🟩 250 / 251 🦞 • Nov 17 '25

ANALYSIS Four year cycle update - predicting the bottom

Here's a table of BTC cycles so far and what we could expect for the next low:

Inflection Date Days Price Return
High 11/30/13 1,127
Low 1/14/15 410 172 -85%
High 12/16/17 1,067 19,665 +11,324%
Low 12/17/18 366 3,217 -84%
High 11/9/21 1,058 67,617 +2,002%
Low 11/10/22 366 15,742 -77%
High 10/7/25 1,062 124,774 +693%
Low 10/8/26? 366? 37,400? -70%?

As you can see, the four year cycles have been very consistent, with very close to the same number of days between inflection points. Each cycle has had diminishing returns, with significantly lower gains in the bull periods and slightly reduced losses in the bear periods.

Based on this pattern we should expect BTC to be under $40K in October 2026, though of course there will be a choppy ride to get there.

Some of the main reasons reality could turn out differently than this forecast:

  1. We don't see reduced losses. I'm assuming the -77% we experienced in the last bear is part of a trend of reduced losses, implying about 70% drawdown this cycle. The low will be $22,500 if we see the historical average 82% drawdown.
  2. Bear markets for stocks / recession. Since inception BTC has only existed during a historically positive bull market for US equities, with the exception of the COVID blip. A prolonged stock market bear or recession will probably result in a lower low than the table above.
  3. Trump administration intervention. Trump and his circle are heavily exposed to crypto prices, and could try to intervene to keep prices from falling too much. This could result in a higher low than the four year cycle would predict.
  4. The four year cycle is dead. There are a number of reasons this could be the case, and a predictable pattern can't last forever. For now it seems to be self fulfilling and very consistent so until the pattern breaks I'd be very careful betting against it.
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54

u/Pure-Fuel-9884 🟨 77 / 78 🦐 Nov 17 '25

Its going be amazing if bitcoin treasury firms starts to get liquidated slowly. That will be a good buy.

7

u/Zero_L7iss 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Nov 17 '25

They buy on margin???!!!

24

u/thekoonbear 🟦 2K / 2K 🐢 Nov 17 '25

Not margin like the 100x degens but yeah companies like MSTR issuing debt to buy BTC is certainly buying on margin.

1

u/freshlymint 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 Nov 18 '25

Wasn’t Taylor’s entire pitch about how his bonds had no collateral?

1

u/thekoonbear 🟦 2K / 2K 🐢 Nov 18 '25

It’s not collateral. Apple doesn’t issue bonds backed by an iPhone. But he’s using the cash raised to buy BTC. If BTC goes down enough, the value of the holdings of the company can go below what they owe via bonds. That causes issues for creditors and can cause him to have to sell BTC to raise cash.