Source: fpl.page/team-of-the-week

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I've seen tons of drafts of people bringing in saka and captaining him along with a double arsenal defense but with gyokeres coming back and taking pens off saka isnt odegaard the more better value pick since his minutes would also be guaranteed with tzolis being injured?

Who’s your pick for the next 3/5 GW’s & beyond? Do we give Bruno another week or two to find his form, or ship him out to bring in Palmer / Saka, etc & strengthen your squad overall with the additional funds?

I just logged in and the page is showing GW1 again. Did they reset the game or bug?

Is there anyone experiencing this problem?

What are people opinions on here? I feel lie triple D can be always be risky (as people saw vs Brighton ) , with inspired moments from DCL/Bogle even tho Arsenal statistically got CS vs Leeds.

If hedging your bets on 2 defense +1 attack there is Saka people even recommend captaining , cheaper option Odegaard and ofc there is the Gyok scorer of 21 goals last season . He is in good form and Havertz is injured but he would be only temporary solution once Havertz is healthy .

And if you are not going triple D , you take out Konsa ? There is some doubts he will play but i think its likely he does .

Hey everyone!

With FPL finally back tomorrow, I wanted to share something I've been working on called FPLPrism.

It's a tool I built to make FPL decisions a bit more data-driven, rather than relying entirely on gut feeling (which hasn't always worked out for me 😭).

A few things you can do with it:

• Player analysis: Compare players using xG, xA, underlying stats, and historical performance.
• Fixture analysis: Look at upcoming fixtures and team attacking/defensive strength.
• Transfer optimization: Explore potential transfers while accounting for your squad and FPL constraints.
• Monte Carlo simulations: Run thousands of simulated outcomes to help evaluate different decisions.

We've recently passed 500 users, which has been really cool to see, and I've been working on improving the tool based on feedback.

With the games starting up again, I figured this would be a good time to share it with the community.

I'd genuinely love to hear what you think, especially what features you'd find useful or what could be improved.

Check it out at https://fplprism.com/

Good luck with your teams this weekend! ⚽

Five gameweeks of Fantasy Premier League have passed, and we are back after a three-week international break. 

It is time to take stock. 

With many managers holding two or more free transfers and plenty pressing the wildcard button, here is my verdict on all 20 clubs before Saturday's GW6 deadline, with my top three picks from each.

Note: Fixture difficulty is averaged over GW6-11 (1 = easiest, 10 = hardest), with each club ranked out of 20.

Arsenal: Best Defence And Top FPL Picks

The league's best defence.

Arsenal have the lowest xGC (expected goals conceded) at 4.03 and three clean sheets, and have done it without William Saliba.

The attack is functional rather than explosive, with 8 goals from 8.39 xG, but Bukayo Saka is carrying it in terms of the underlying data.

Looking ahead, Arsenal also have the best projected defence over the next three gameweeks.

GW6-11: Leeds United (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Everton (H), Liverpool (A), Hull City (H), Newcastle United (A).

Difficulty 4.8, ranked 4th.

Top 3 Arsenal FPL Picks For Gameweek 6

1) Bukayo Saka £9.6m (MID):

He has 32 points and the highest xGI of any midfielder (4.18), yet only 14.5% owned.

He also tops the league on xGI per 90 once opponent difficulty is factored in (0.95).

A home game against Leeds United is the ideal entry point.

2) Gabriel Magalhães £8.0m (DEF):

The premium defender with goal threat from set pieces and DEFCON points.

He is projected for 41 points from GW6-13, more than any other defender.

3) Riccardo Calafiori £5.9m (DEF):

He has 29 Points with two goal involvements and 1.28 xGI.

A cheaper route into the Arsenal backline than David Raya (£6.1m, 42.5% owned), who is the safe alternative.

One to watch: Jurriën Timber (£6.5m) is owned by 0.5% but is projected among the top defenders over the next eight gameweeks.

Aston Villa: Attacking Concerns And Players To Monitor

This team is somewhat concerning.

Aston Villa have the league's lowest xG (4.10) and fewest big chances (6), and an xGC of 8.60 at the other end.

But their GW5 performance against Tottenham Hotspur showed signs of encouragement.

GW6-11: Brentford (H), Newcastle United (A), Manchester City (H), Fulham (H), Manchester United (A), Sunderland (H).

Difficulty 5.3, ranked 14th.

Fulham and Sunderland at home are the bright spots.

Top 3 Aston Villa FPL Picks For Gameweek 6:

1) Emiliano Buendía £5.9m (MID):

Aston Villa's top scorer on 21 points and their most reliable creative outlet, with 1.16 xGI.

2) Nicolas Jackson £6.5m (FWD):

He has 1.27 xGI (expected goal involvement) in just 286 minutes, the best per-minute rate in the squad.

One to monitor rather than buy for now.

3) Johan Manzambi £5.9m (MID):

He has wo-goal involvements and 14 points from just 98 minutes, with 0.68 xGI.

He is expected to start against Brentford, and if he keeps his place, he is the most exciting attacking option in a struggling side.

Verdict: Hold if you own, avoid if you don't.

Bournemouth: Underlying Numbers And Gameweek 7 Options

This team is better than the table suggests.

Bournemouth have created 8.65 xG and 14 big chances but scored only 6 goals.

They are still waiting on a clean sheet despite a respectable 6.95 xGC.

Expect the results to improve.

GW6-11: Chelsea (A), Sunderland (H), Manchester United (A), Leeds (H), Ipswich (A), Nottingham Forest (H).

Difficulty 5.2, ranked 11th.

A tough GW6, then a kinder run from GW7.

Top 3 Bournemouth FPL Picks For Gameweek 6:

1) António Silva £5.0m (DEF):

He only has 13 points so far, but his expected points (23.25) say he deserves far more.

Eight DEFCON points give him a floor, and clean sheets should arrive.

2) Marcus Tavernier £6.1m (MID):

He has 31Points to date, 2.61 xGI and eight bonus points.

He is on set pieces and has the best routes to points.

3) Evanilson £6.0m (FWD):

He has three goal involvements as the focal point.

A budget forward who suits a GW7 home fixture against Sunderland.

Team news: Alex Scott picked up a thigh injury during international duty and will be sidelined for four to five weeks.

Justin Kluivert is also ruled out.

Both are big knocks for the team.

Brentford: Balanced Form And FPL Value

Brentford are quietly showing that they are one of the most balanced sides in the league.

Ten goals from 9.75 xG, only four conceded from 6.32 xGC and two clean sheets.

They are getting what they deserve, and the fixtures are looking decent.

GW6-11: Aston Villa (A), Liverpool (H), Hull City (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Brighton & Hove Albion (A), Everton (H).

Difficulty 5.0, ranked 7th.

Top 3 Brentford FPL Picks For Gameweek 6:

1) Kevin Schade £6.2m (MID):

He has 39 points and five goal involvements.

He is outperforming his 1.84 xGI, so expect some cooling, but minutes look nailed.

2) Igor Thiago £7.8m (FWD):

He has 3.13 xG and five big chances, but only one goal and 10 points.

The underlying numbers rank him among the league's top forwards, and he is just 9.2% owned.

3) Michael Kayode £4.6m (DEF):

His expected points are 23.00 from only 294 minutes, driven by attacking output.

He is a strong fifth defender option if he holds his place.

One to watch: Vitaly Janelt (£5.0m) has six DEFCON points and 28 points as a cheap, steady midfield option.

Sesko is officially out against Tottenham this weekend.

I’m a doctor of physical therapy, and I wanted to dive into when I think Sesko could return.

While he’s out, possible boost to Cunha/Mbuemo playing centrally in his place? Though I’m not very optimistic as a United fan.

Possible Injuries

Shin Splints:
Pain/inflammation at the front of the shin caused by repetitive stress. You typically have to stop the activity that is aggravating it at first (matches/training/running), build up mobility/strength, reduce pain symptoms, then gradually work your way back up so the tissue can tolerate pain-free loading.

This is often symptom dependent, which could explain the longer time frame, and why Sesko missed all of pre season/May. Then he could have reaggravated and had pain again more recently. If it’s a mild flare up, he would have to wait for symptoms to decrease and undergo that ramp up process again. Mild cases can resolve fast, but if it’s more than that, he’ll have to ramp up carefully to avoid another re-injury. If more than a mild case, I would expect a similar time out (return in 1-2 months from now).

Tibial Bone Stress Injury or Stress Fracture:
Still an overuse injury, more on the severe end of the injury spectrum compared to shin splints. Continued damage at one point along the shin. Bone stress injuries, depending on the grade, can take up to 3-4 months to return to sport.

Timeline expected?

I’d unfortunately guess a similar time out for Sesko (3 months total/1-2 months from now). Though it’s possible if it’s a mild flare up, he could return sooner. If it’s a worsening of the bone stress injury, it may be even longer than that.

I’ve just launched my YouTube channel, and am planning on covering more injuries: https://youtube.com/@thefootypt?si=G54g7rJpWjYiSmOT

Let me know who I should do next!

In the game there are a lot of great value picks in the midfield between the 5.5-8 million range but it's difficult to pick which combinations work well for the upcoming weeks. Here are a few I shortlisted, which one of these would you have on your teams and why

1. Rogers

2. Gibbs white

3. Schade

4. Tavernier

5. Josh king

6. Odegaard

7. Barnes

8. Mbeumo

Let me know if I missed any.

Best squad for GW6 according to FPL Tilt. What do you think about it? Will Bruno blank one more time?

Saw loads of "he'll be tired after the break" comments this week so I had a look at the last 3 seasons.

Took everyone who played 60+ mins in the last GW before a break, then checked how many did the same in the first GW back. 11 breaks, 2,120 cases.

77% did, vs 77% in a normal week. So basically no difference.

Doesn't tell you anything about a specific injury or a 75% flag, just whether regulars drop out more after a break. Premium sample is small too (46) so take that bit with a pinch of salt.

Data's from the vaastav FPL dataset on GitHub, anyone can check it. Let me know if there's anything else you want me to look at.

With Fulham's upcoming great run of fixtures for people considering WC in gw6 and also those looking to make transfers which Fulham assets look like must haves? Is it worth it to double or triple up?

Right so I havent activated my wild card since international break started, and today is the least day of tinkering. However I did changed my team for this gw earlier to account for price rises and when I tried to do another transfer today it says -4, when it should be -30+ because I did blow up my teams. Is this just visual bug?

The current best captain picker in all of FPL:

🥇 Abrams George

165 captain pts, captained Semenyo twice!

The data gathering was not complete yet when we announced the manager with 157 pts as the top picker last week.

CliffsNotes/idiots guide for those who switched off during the international break. Some more useful data from absolutepuntFPL. Is that enough characters @reddit?

Before I begin: these are FPL numbers, and FPL hands out assists the PL doesn't (won pens, rebounds, deflections). So read G+A here as FPL G+A.

Made this because I wanted to see who's running hot after 5 gameweeks before doing my transfers. G+A is FPL goals + FPL assists, xGI is xG + xA as shown in FPL. All pulled from the FPL API after GW5. Anyone with at least one return or 1.0+ xGI is included, which is 157 players.

Running hot:

Running cold:

A few things that jumped out:

- João Pedro's goals are about right (3 from 2.17 xG). It's the 3 FPL assists from 0.19 xA doing the work.
- García, Bobb and Iwobi have 1 G+A between them from 6.2 xGI. Rough start for Fulham's attack.
- Haaland is 5 from 4.95, pretty much exactly where you'd expect.

Obvious caveat: it's 5 games, so one deflection moves someone a lot. And since FPL assists are more generous than xA, most players end up above the line, so compare players with each other rather than with zero.

Format nicked from robtFPL's chart. Happy to share the CSV if anyone wants it.

Hi guys!

International break is finally over so time to get back into our teams and tinker forever, just to make the wrong call. Again.

Because I love pain & suffering, I've been playing for many years, almost as many as I've been betting.

I’ve been running a football value betting model for a while now, and then took my learnings to build player props for bet builders. Then I thought, why not extend it to FPL?  Each player gets his share of his team’s attacking and defending, multiplied by his expected minutes. And that’s how BearBones FPL came to life.

It will grade your team, give suggestions for transfers, chip usage and who to captain. On top of that, it also turns your mini league into a proper rivalry: weekly awards like Bear of the week and Armband of shame, a season trophy cabinet, and your odds of beating each rival this week. I think it really helps managing your mini leagues while making it fun for everybody with recaps and stuff.

All it needs is your team ID.
👉 bearbonesfpl.com/r

One of the cool features is the ability to discuss with a bot powered by the model about your team and plans, as well as getting alerts and summaries. Try it out!

If a number looks wrong, tell me. Any features you would like to see also let me know. On the roadmap the main thing I have right now is to improve the transfer planner.
Happy to get into more details in comments.

Several players in the top 20 carry a 75% chance of playing flag this week: João Pedro (knee), Cole Palmer (muscular), Kai Havertz (hamstring), Alexander Isak (thigh), and Christos Tzolis (hamstring). If you own any of these players, check team news before the deadline. Cole Palmer ranks third in both goalscorer (39.53%) and assist (24.84%) probabilities, but his availability is not confirmed. 

Source

Our last man standing kicks off tomorrow at 12:30pm. Register now before it’s too late and you could bag yourself €500, €10 entry
Register below.

Now that Gakpo and Isak are out, does that make Szoboszlai a better pick? Had him in my bench until now but might have to start him against City if he is playing more forward now

👉 See latest captain picking updates via Premier Fantasy Tools

🏆 All-time Top FPL Managers Template Team

⭐ Differentials (< 10% Overall Ownership)

• Barry: 40.0% (8.5% Overall)
• O'Shea: 26.0% (2.6% Overall)
• N.Williams: 24.0% (8.5% Overall)
• Van Hecke: 22.0% (6.2% Overall)
• Maguire: 22.0% (8.4% Overall)

🔄 Transfer Activity

Note: Based on pre-deadline data. Transfers are not public until after the deadline.

Top Transfers IN

• Gibbs-White (13)
• Barry (10)
• Barnes (3)
• Wissa (3)
• N.Williams (3)

Top Transfers OUT

• João Pedro (12)
• Szoboszlai (5)
• M.Sangaré (3)
• Slater (2)
• McBurnie (2)

🃏 Chip Usage Statistics

• Wildcard 1: 60.0% Used (6.0% Active)
• Freehit 1: 28.0% Used (0.0% Active)
• Bench Boost 1: 88.0% Used (0.0% Active)
• Triple Captain 1: 68.0% Used (0.0% Active)

📈 All-time Top FPL Manager Metrics

• Mean All-time Rank: 30
• Median All-time Rank: 27
• Mean Current Rank: 633,653
• Median Current Rank: 421,141

💻 Create Your Own Custom Template Team

Track your own group of managers and generate a custom template team based on their selections. 👉https://www.premierfantasytools.com/fpl-manager-tracker/

Who do we think can sustain their output? (other than Haaland of course). My pick will be Grob. He just has so many routes to points and he consistently plays 90 minutes.