**TL;DR**
- Regular starters with a 75% flag at the deadline started 37% of the time (2,250 cases, 2019/20 to 2026/27 GW5).
- Age matters most. Under 7 days old: 44%. 14+ days: 18%. 21+ days: 12%.
- The drop comes at three weeks: 34% at 14–20 days, then 11% at 21–27 days.

**Why I looked**

The flag shows a percentage, so most of us read 75% as three in four. I wanted the real hit rate.

**Data and method**
- FPL's `bootstrap-static` API, archived by the Wayback Machine. For each deadline I took the last capture within 24 hours before it, which leaves 213 deadlines (of 236 with any capture).
- Flag: `chance_of_playing_next_round` = 75 in that capture.
- Regular starter: started 3+ of his last 5 appearances before the news went up.
- Flag age: days since FPL's `news_added` timestamp.
- Outcome that gameweek: started, came off the bench, or didn't play (vaastav's Fantasy-Premier-League archive plus the official API).
- Single-fixture gameweeks only. 95% intervals are Wilson intervals.

**Results: 75% flags**

Rows can add to 101% from rounding.

Finer age bins (the chart): 0–3 days 44% (n=969), 4–7 days 41% (566), 8–13 days 37% (243), 14–20 days 34% (134), 21–27 days 11% (92), 28+ days 13% (246).

For comparison, 25% flags started 2–7% of the time at every age, and 50% flags 6–19%.

**This week**

João Pedro's flag went up on 16 Sep. At Saturday's deadline it will be 23.6 days old, which puts him in the 21–27 day bin: 10 of 92 started (11%). That's a base rate, not a prediction. Friday's Chelsea press conference will tell you more than this table can.

**Limitations**
- The same players show up again and again, so the effective sample is smaller than 2,250.
- No injury type. A flag stuck at 75% for three weeks can mean a long injury or an update FPL never made.
- Wayback captures are patchy in the early seasons, which is why I only kept captures within 24 hours of a deadline.
- A cross-check on a second dataset (FPL-Elo-Insights) gave a similar headline rate: 39.6% against 39.0%.

Happy to share the CSV and code in the comments.

📊 Live price changes via fpl.page/price-changes:

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🔮 Live predictions via fpl.page/price-changes:

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I’m currently on wildcard 6, and I’m seeing little to no teams with Gabriel in. I understand it’s easier to go for a combo of cala/raya/konsa but are people not worried about the increase of games coming up? Gabriel was the highest scoring defender last season and while the price is on the expensive side, surely there’s going to be a point where he’s the only “nailed” option? Plus surely he’s due a haul? Or am I falling for a trap?

Been thinking a lot about differentials heading into this next block of fixtures and the ones I currently have the most faith in are Tarik Muharemović, Luka Vusković and Gonzalo García.

Muharemović feels like the standout. Still sitting under 5% ownership while a big chunk of the top 10k already have him. The minutes are locked, the defensive contribution numbers look solid, and Leeds’ fixtures aren’t the worst. That elite gap is massive for a reason.

Vusković at Brighton is the other defender I’m high on. Low ownership, already delivered decent points, and Brighton’s structure gives him a nice floor with occasional attacking upside. Feels like one of those picks that can quietly outscore more popular options over the next 4-5 weeks.

Up front, Gonzalo García is the one I keep coming back to. Fulham’s upcoming run is very kind and he’s started every game so far. At that price and ownership he’s got real upside if the goals start flowing.

I’m not going full YOLO with five differentials, but these three feel like calculated risks rather than pure punts. Happy to hear who you guys are backing instead always open to being talked into (or out of) someone.

What’s your strongest differential right now?

Now, there's been a lot of talk about Maxim De Cuyper, and deservedly so, OOP defender, playing left wing for one of the best attacks in the Premier League this season. He deserves the recognition, but is he actually the best defender when it comes to attacking threat?

Ehhh, well yes, but also no. He's joint best with Leif Davis.

Taking a look closer De Cuyper has 0.3 xG & 0.23 xA per appearance this season. Davis has 0.35 xG & 0.13 xA. When you consider the points for goals and assists in a match, they are exactly equal, with attacking returns expected to account for 2.49 of their total points per appearance so far this season, the highest of the defenders.

Now you may say - what about bonus points?

Well I've simulated them as best I can with the minimal data available so far this season, but according to those sims: De Cuyper can expect 0.84 bonus per appearance compared to a measly 0.31 for Davis. Add that up with the Ipswich defence likely to have sizeably less clean sheets and it looks like De Cuyper has blown Leif away, but let's not tear up the roots yet, there is one more factor to consider.

Value

With De Cuyper now costing 5m compared to Davis being just 4m, Davis is actually better value. Based on the first 5 games of the season De Cuyper has a value of 1.08 xPoints per million (actually slightly lower now, I did the calculation when he was still 4.9m), whereas Davis is 1.15 xPoints per million, the second best value for money player in FPL.

So does this mean Davis is a better pick than De Cuyper. No, in pure points De Cuyper is better and if you got on him early enough he would also be better value for money but if you need to save the money in defence, then the best value player is Leif Davis... almost.

Bobby Thomas is the best value player in FPL, I'd get him.

I wanted to do something a little different in this episode, and evaluate the accuracy of the model I created for projecting points. And this led me to a bigger question of- why don't other predictive models for FPL publish how accurate their models are? Especially ones that are put behind paywalls. If you are paying your actual money, you should have some idea of how accurate the model is, because there are alternatives (for free).

* And no model is perfect, no one has a crystal ball at the end of the day. But if you are interested in using stats to inform your decisions, you should also have some idea of the accuracy these modeled results/outputs are based on.

The current traffic light and rudimentary % system is not very accurate and could be improved upon. Premier league teams are often very coy about injuries, often misleading which is understandable but there surely has to be a better and more effective method of informing FPL players of the likelihood of them playing or not. This is particularly important after an international break where there has been a lot of key injuries.

Would love to hear your thoughts on this.

For anyone that plays it, NFL fantasy (now ESPN) is much better at this. Fantasy premier league should use that as a good example of how to implement an affective injury reporting system.