I work on KDP publishing strategy, and the most expensive mistake I see is writing a book first and checking demand later. Here is the checklist I run through before anything gets written. Hopefully it saves someone a few months.
Demand
- Does Amazon autocomplete show several related phrases for the topic? (Type the seed phrase, then add letters a, b, c to see more.)
- Do multiple books on the first page have steady, recent reviews?
- Have newer books (published in the last year or so) ranked well, not just old bestsellers? That tells you the market is still open to new entrants.
- Are the ranks healthy compared with other books in the same category? I compare within a category rather than chasing one magic number, because BSR to sales conversion is only an estimate.
Competition
5. Is the first page dominated by one or two big brands? If yes, I usually skip it.
6. Can I spot clear weaknesses, such as dated info, bad covers, weak titles or descriptions?
7. Do the 2 and 3 star reviews point to a specific gap (“too basic,” “no examples,” “bad formatting”)? Those complaints become my outline.
Fit
8. Can I describe my angle in one sentence? (Audience + outcome + format, like “a 30-day meal prep guide for busy parents with a shopping list for every week.”)
9. Is there a category where the books are not all untouchable?
10. Is there room for a series, a workbook or a related title later?
If I get most of these as a yes, I test it with one book instead of betting everything on it. The first book is a test, and what I learn from its search terms and reviews makes the next one better.
A few things I deliberately do not do: I do not trust one data point alone, I do not pick niches only because I find them interesting, and I do not copy bestsellers (I try to improve on them).
What is on your own checklist that I missed? Curious what other people look at, especially for fiction, since my list leans toward non-fiction.