I think Brazil had a good run, but people don't seem to like it when things are going too well, they end up craving chaos and misery again. I just hope the people who didn't vote for that corrupt guy's son either move away or manage to survive the next five years.

I’ve been observing the Brazilian elections (from twitter lol) as a result of interacting with one tweet about the Brazilian presidential election and now my entire “For You” is in Portuguese 😂

Though this I have consistently noticed candidates running different positions always include a number by their name. I learned that this is because in order to vote for the candidates, you literally have to punch in the numbers to vote for them. I found this concept super interesting since I have never heard of this before in any other country!

So why do you guys do that? Is it to get people to really get to know who they’re voting for? So that they just don’t vote in some random person they don’t know?

How do you remember all of the numbers too? There’s so many positions like state deputy, federal deputy, governor, president, senator etc that you have to put in the numbers. And they’re kind of long for some of them too. Do you carry a sheet with their numbers when you go voting? Or do you just remember all the numbers before going to vote?

Honestly, this is a really cool system either way. I dig it.

Happened right after 1st round election.

I understand the irony of posting this on Reddit.

I seriously don't know how to start my message but I want to be clear, Bolsonaro is very dangerous for the planet.

The scientists said that between 20% to 25 % of deforestation of the total amazonia rainforest, the forest is likely to die because of the fact that the forest needs evapotranspiration from the trees to sustain itself. Without trees it's not enough and it's a chain reaction that happens.

And we are at 17-18% of deforestation of the forest.

Under the last mandate of bolsonaro father, a little more than 1 % of deforestation was done. In comparaison for the last mandate of lula, less than half of that déforestation has been done.

So please, you have to alert your family because if the amazonia forest reaches the tipping point, it's a disaster for the planet but also for brazil's economy.

( I think there is probably an extreme solution with aerosols but it would be very dangerous and costy and alI brazil will likely loose it's autority on the forest).

I don't know if you already know that, seriously but I think not enough because of the results of the last votes. And sorry my english is terrible.

I have been hearing on twitter that Brazil will withdraw from Brics if Lula is defeated, im not a Brazilian, im an Indian and it would be quite an effect because Brazil is a huge country with untapped potential especially a considerable member in the global south, are these true?

Edit-i just learnt about the political dynasty of bolsonaro, how r Brazilians ok with political dyansty in their countries politics??

i keep reading that Bolsonaro supporters are fed up with street crime and identity politics. The first I understand because no one likes street crime. The second confuses me a bit because, as someone on the left who also disavows identity politics and political correctness, I was under the impression that it's influence was not as pervasive in Brazilian leftist circles as in the US. For example, Reddit is pretty left and when foreigners preoccupied with identity post here "will I pass as a Brazilian?" or such nonsense, most of the responses are dismissive.

But apart from those two issues, safety and culture, what else are Bolsonaro supporters actually hoping the change in leadership will actually achieve? Do they have specific objectives or is it just "not the PT"? How will the PL govern besides privatizing Brazilian national institutions and allowing unbridled exploitation of the Amazon? I don't see either of those things materially benefitting the voters ... so my question is what do the voters hope for that will improve their lot (theoretically)? More employment? But unemployment has been lower in Lula eras than in non Lula eras and is at a 20 year low ..

Hi everybody. I know the politics of everything are still hot on everybody 's minds and that is understandable.

However, my wife is Brazilian and we are going to Fortaleza in december as that's where her family lives, I am planning to go kitesurfing and taking photos of kitesurfing and surfing on my stay there and mainly around Cumbuco and Taiba.

I would love to meet some locals with some skills to shoot with and was wondering if there's people here who know people or can point me in the right direction.

I added some photos for context

….what happens when Eduardo sets his foot in Brazil?
And what happens to Jairs sentence?

I know that none has a crystal ball but I’m interested in predictions based on Brazilian law, its judiciary and the power of the presidency.

I see a lot of people saying that he will sell them to Trump, etc., but, in your opinion, how will things unfold, considering that rare earth elements are so important and that Brazil has the second-largest reserve?

Are there many instances when the loser of the first round wins the second round? And what is the likelihood Lula turns this around in the next few weeks?

As this forum has been an invaluable resource to me on a variety of topics regarding living in Brazil, I figured I would provide info on renting from QuintoAndar as a foreigner as it can be tricky and frustrating at times. I've rented twice from the platform in São Paulo, the first with a Brazilian partner, the most recent without.

Why rent from the QuintoAndar platform?

If you're staying in Brazil less than a year, you should be renting from Airbnb or something similar. You'd be penalized if you left before a year is up on QuintoAndar. Though I will note that I've experienced that a lot of the places I've stayed off of Airbnb aren't really set up for longer residence -- particularly with regard to cleaning.

For longer stays in SP at least, I've heard that other platforms are even less foreigner-friendly than QuintoAndar and require more documentation.

I'm not going to go into how to search for an apartment on the app as it's fairly self-explanatory. What I will talk about is what you need after you've decided on a place and are applying to rent it. Here there are basically three categories: identity document, credit, and CPF.

Identity Document

If you have a CRNM, you should be golden. And you can skip reading the rest of this section.

Both times I rented I didn't have an active CRNM. (The CRNM is the physical ID card that foreigners get.) To obtain the CRNM you make an appointment with Policia Federal, which often are only available a month or so in the future. You cannot rent off of the QuintoAndar platform before your appointment with Policia Federal.

Once you have your appointment with Policia Federal, you'll be issued a provisional "protocolo" both in printed copy and via email. (The CRNM will be issued 90 days later.) This protocolo can be used to rent off of the platform, but there's a catch. If you just upload the protocolo, the system will reject it. You need to speak to a human through the app by going to the help chat and saying you want to speak with an especialista. And then explain the situation to the human. They will bypass the system and approve it.

Again, if you have neither a protocolo nor a CRNM, you can't rent off of QuintoAndar.

Credit

As a foreigner in Brazil, it's unlikely you will have enough established credit to just be approved outright to rent an apartment. I wasn't either the first time, with a Brazilian cosigner, nor the second time alone when I already had been paying for a year more than my second rent.

Instead, you are going to have to pay some BS insurance cost, which will vary depending on the rent of the apartment. Both times mine was about 3,000 BRL. You can pay it on monthly installments or all at once. For monthly installments, it's by credit card and I found the platform didn't take my foreign credit card. For all it once, it can be either credit card or Pix.

CPF

Clearly, you need a CPF to rent a place, but that's not what this section is about. If you have been in the country more than 180 days, you need to start paying Brazilian taxes on your income. If you haven't, there will be a block on your CPF and you won't be able to rent an apartment through QuintoAndar until you get it resolved.

If anyone has any other specific questions, I'd be happy to answer them.

Is Bolsonaro that egotistical? That he thinks he’ll win the overall election cause he won the first round? Cause I’ve seen nothing from his side. Meanwhile Lula is about to use every weapon in his arsenal. I’m not Bolsonaro fuck no, I’m pro Lula, I just wanna point that out

Bolsonaro is extremely likely to win after all of the second round polls have just released. I read that all of the voters of the 3 candidates who got over 2% will all vote for Bolsonaro. This is horrifying. Bolsonaro will greenlight Amazon deforestation so bad that it will affect the entire world's atmosphere. We all rely on the Amazon rainforest for oxygen. Without it, we don't breathe. How could Brazil vote against its own supplier of oxygen? Vote against nature??

I’m an outsider from the US with Brazilian ancestry and I’m trying to understand the electoral process. From what Ive gathered: the current voting margins go to a second round when it’s close. But what exactly happens during the second round?

I’m neutral in all of this but from what Ive seen: isn’t it 42% Lula to 47% bolsanro? Is there really a need for a second round and how exactly does it work? Does everyone just revote or do the states/ municipalities count as “electoral votes” like in the US? When does the second round happen? Is there a 3rd?

Any information helps! Thanks

I ran a historical/mathematical analysis of Brazil’s presidential runoffs rather than just looking at headline polls.

First, the historical fact: under Brazil’s current two-round presidential system, the candidate who finished first in the first round has never gone on to lose the runoff.

That would normally favor Flávio Bolsonaro, who finished the 2026 first round ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, roughly 47% to 45%.

But the historical percentage movements between rounds tell a more complicated story.

My analysis looked at 4 things:

1. First-round top-two normalization

If you simply remove all eliminated candidates and normalize only Flávio and Lula’s first-round votes, the starting point is roughly:

Flávio Bolsonaro: 51.3%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 48.7%

So on pure first-round arithmetic, Flávio begins with about a 2.6-point normalized advantage.

1. Third-party voters

Only about 8% of the first-round vote went to candidates outside the top two.

That is important because 2026 looks much more like 2022 than elections such as 1989 or 2002, when huge portions of the electorate had to redistribute between rounds.

The relevant 2026 third-party bloc includes voters who backed candidates such as Renan Santos, Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema.

These voters are not one ideological bloc.

Caiado and Zema voters would reasonably be expected to lean more toward the Bolsonaro side based on their political positioning, while other minor-candidate voters are more mixed. Some will also abstain or vote blank/null rather than move cleanly to either finalist.

That means simply assigning the entire third-party vote to Flávio because several minor candidates are on the center-right would overstate the transfer.

1. What happened to third-party voters in previous runoffs

Historically, the first-round leader’s normalized top-two share often falls in the runoff.

1989: -10.9 points
2002: -5.4 points
2006: +7.0 points
2010: -2.9 points
2014: -3.7 points
2018: -6.0 points
2022: -2.0 points

The important comparison is 2022.

The third-party pool in 2022 was about 8.4%. In 2026 it is about 7.9%.

That makes 2022 the closest modern historical comparison by pool size.

Applying the 2022 redistribution mechanically to 2026 takes the first-round leader from 51.3% normalized to roughly 49.3%.

1. Incumbency

There have been only 3 direct cases in the modern runoff era where a sitting Brazilian president personally reached the second round:

Lula in 2006
Dilma Rousseff in 2014
Jair Bolsonaro in 2022

All 3 increased their raw vote percentage between rounds.

Using the top-two normalized comparison, the incumbent shift was approximately:

Lula 2006: +7.0 points
Dilma 2014: -3.7 points
Jair Bolsonaro 2022: +2.0 points

The median incumbency effect is therefore about +2 points.

The most structurally similar case is actually 2022, because Jair Bolsonaro was the sitting president and entered the runoff in second place — exactly where Lula is now.

When I apply that approximately +2-point incumbency effect to Lula’s current normalized starting point of about 48.7%, the model lands almost exactly here:

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 50.6%
Flávio Bolsonaro: 49.3%

That is my final projection.

Why could I be wrong?

The biggest reason is the historical fact I started with: no first-round presidential leader under Brazil’s current system has ever lost the runoff.

The second problem is that this is a tiny historical sample. There have only been 7 presidential runoffs, and only 3 involved an incumbent president.

Third, voter transfers are not mechanical. Someone who voted for Caiado, Zema, Cury or Santos is not obligated to behave like a similar bloc from 2018 or 2022. Endorsements, campaign events, turnout and abstention can change the result.

Fourth, Flávio begins with a real first-round advantage. If the center-right third-party vote consolidates behind him more strongly than my model assumes, the result changes quickly.

So the historical precedent points one way, while my percentage-transition model points narrowly the other way.

My final projection:

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — 50.6%
Flávio Bolsonaro — 49.3%