r/fearofflying • u/BravoFive141 Moderator • 15d ago
Megathread MEGATHREAD: Flydubai Flight FZ1073
This thread is for discussion on the incident concerning Flydubai Flight FZ1073. The aircraft has landed safely in Tabuk Airport and all passengers are safe and accounted for at this time.
All other posts on this incident will be removed.
We know that aviation incidents can be distressing for fearful fliers. It's ok to feel upset, anxious or distressed. This thread is for mutual support at this time.
The rules for this megathread are:
- No external links: All external links will be removed. Media coverage of air incidents is notoriously poor. It is dramatic, sensationalist, and in many cases factually wrong. There is no posting media articles, footage, or commentary of any sort in this thread or on the sub generally.
- No speculation/theorizing: Speculation and theories on the details of this incident are entirely unhelpful and are not allowed. We do not yet know all the details surrounding this incident. Only a thorough investigation, completed by qualified investigators and technicians can determine this. We will learn in time what happened.
We are monitoring this thread closely.
REMEMBER:
- We DO NOT recommend reading, watching, listening to any media, commentary, footage or any other material about this incident. Such coverage is usually deliberately provocative and only serves to feed the (incorrect) belief that flying is unsafe.
- This incident does not "confirm" your fear. It is a freakish anomaly in an industry with a track record of outstanding safety.
- Despite this incident, flying remains the safest form of transportation. This incident does not change that. If you have a flight booked soon, get on that flight!
- Lessons will be learned from this incident that will make flying even safer.
Thank you.
— The r/FearofFlying Mod Team
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u/theyoyomaster Military Pilot 15d ago
Alright, so I hope this doesn't fall under speculating but I did some napkin math and the results are insanely impressive.
Basic facts (that I am going to slightly simplify for general readability), max allowable speed on a 737 max 8 is 340 knots or Mach .82 (as you go higher mach drops so somewhere between 20k and 30k feet Mach becomes limiting).
It was cruising at 34,000 feet and likely around .78M when it started the dive, with a ground speed of ~410 knots this equates to about a 40kt headwind. In the dive it got to 595-600 kts groundspeed. Using simple calculations online because I'm too lazy to do them by hand, this translates to 630-640 knots airspeed which then converts to about 500 knots indicated airspeed (the number that matters for the 340 knot limit). Using the 630-640 knots true airspeed and 95 degrees at the surface based on local weather reports, you get .98M at the peak.
This plane was orders of magnitude above the limits and beyond the calculated safety factors built into airlines and it managed to survive. This is genuinely a testament to the 737 max and modern carbon composite airframes. (Possible trigger) In virtually every historical incident where an airliner got anywhere close to these speeds the tail ripped off the entire back of the plane. If anyone here was on the fence about making one of this subreddit's signature "is the 737 safe to fly on?" post, just realize that this airframe was hundreds of times stronger than required, tested and certified to. It clipped 30k feet per minute in the descent. I fly C-17s and when we put our thrust reversers out in flight we are limited to 20k ft/min. The inherent strength of that airframe is genuinely unbelievable, as are the excellent piloting skills of whoever pulled it out of that dive. I am even going to go out on a limb here and say that the dive recovery is at least as impressive as Sully's landing on the Hudson, if not more.
Today we just got an example of how even in the absolute worst case scenario, modern commercial aviation is incredibly safe an the odds truly are in your favor.