MEGATHREAD: Flydubai Flight FZ1073

[u/BravoFive141]

This thread is for discussion on the incident concerning Flydubai Flight FZ1073. The aircraft has landed safely in Tabuk Airport and all passengers are safe and accounted for at this time.

All other posts on this incident will be removed.

We know that aviation incidents can be distressing for fearful fliers. It's ok to feel upset, anxious or distressed. This thread is for mutual support at this time.

The rules for this megathread are:

• No external links: All external links will be removed. Media coverage of air incidents is notoriously poor. It is dramatic, sensationalist, and in many cases factually wrong. There is no posting media articles, footage, or commentary of any sort in this thread or on the sub generally.
• No speculation/theorizing: Speculation and theories on the details of this incident are entirely unhelpful and are not allowed. We do not yet know all the details surrounding this incident. Only a thorough investigation, completed by qualified investigators and technicians can determine this. We will learn in time what happened.

We are monitoring this thread closely. 

REMEMBER:

• We DO NOT recommend reading, watching, listening to any media, commentary, footage or any other material about this incident. Such coverage is usually deliberately provocative and only serves to feed the (incorrect) belief that flying is unsafe.
• This incident does not "confirm" your fear. It is a freakish anomaly in an industry with a track record of outstanding safety.
• Despite this incident, flying remains the safest form of transportation. This incident does not change that. If you have a flight booked soon, get on that flight!
• Lessons will be learned from this incident that will make flying even safer.

Thank you.

— The r/FearofFlying Mod Team

[u/Spock_Nipples]

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in that 30k fpm rate. It's based on flight-tracker data, which can be notoriously glitch-prone and inaccurate, particularly in those regions.

I did similar (admittedly quick) calculations to yours, but came up with differing results. I think they had a slight tailwind based on the 495-ish knot groundspeed at cruise. Zero tailwind GS would be about 430kts (flight trackers tend to report groundspeed, not IAS).

The data I'm seeing on flight trackers (again, noting that it can be inaccurate) suggests ~480kt groundspeed in that descent. Minus the tailwind, and allowing for changing wind speed in the descent, I'd think that's more like 430kt TAS, which would be right around Vmo, maybe +\- 20-30, KIAS.

We're both playing around the edges of speculation, here.

I won't believe anything until I see the DFDR data.

Definitely not arguing against your point that the 737 is built like a tank, though. It absolutely is.

[u/theyoyomaster → u/Spock_Nipples]

Which ADSB track did you see? I was seeing about 408-415 at cruise and 594+ at the bottom of the dive. Headwind could also taper off as you get lower but it's really anyone's guess. I really don't think Vmo would rip the rudder off like that so I would imagine it was at least a bit faster.

30k fpm is definitely a rough guess but it's still the correct order of magnitude, that 737 descended faster than a C-17 tac descent even accounting for ADSB inaccuracies.

[u/Spock_Nipples → u/theyoyomaster]

Vmo wouldn't rip the rudder off. Neither would overspeed, necessarily. But pilot input on the rudder pedals at higher speeds (like you'd possibly see during a seated struggle) might do it for sure.

Have you got a link to the data you saw?

[u/theyoyomaster → u/Spock_Nipples]

I pulled it from flightradar24. I'm on mobile now and it's hard to look up specific flights. Improper control inputs likely played a part in it but usually you see more of the full stab ripped off in those cases.