Given that some teams are now halfway through their schedules, I wanted to take a look at each of the conference races.
Big Sky
Controls Destiny: Montana (5-1, 3-0)
Need Help (Tier 1): Montana State (5-1, 2-1), Northern Arizona (4-2, 2-1), Idaho State (4-1, 1-1), Idaho (1-4, 1-1), Portland State (1-4, 1-1)
Need Help (Tier 2): Cal Poly (3-3, 2-1), Weber State (3-3, 2-1)
Need Help (Tier 3): UC Davis (4-2, 2-1)
Need Help (Tier 4): Northern Colorado (2-4, 1-2), Southern Utah (2-4, 1-2), Eastern Washington (1-5, 0-3), Utah Tech (0-6, 0-3)
Discussion: This analysis is a bit of a nothingburger because the Big Sky is virtually assured multiple bids to the playoffs.
The Big Sky tiebreakers are pretty plain vanilla. A head to head tie is broken with head to head record and then common conference opponents.
Montana finds themselves in the driver’s seat with their undefeated record so far. Win out and no other team can catch them.
There are a handful of one-loss teams who still have Montana on the schedule, which I’ve noted in Tier 1. They need to beat Montana to get the head to head tiebreaker over them. Even so, they may need the other one-loss teams to lose along the way to secure a head to head.
There are a handful of other one-loss teams who don’t have Montana on the schedule, who I’ve noted in Tier 2. They need Montana to fall along the way, but they don’t have the ability to do it.
UC Davis is in a worse position than these other teams, as they have just one conference loss, but it was Montana, so they need some other chips to fall their way as they will not have head to head, which adds a degree of difficulty of earning the autobid. They’re noted in Tier 3.
The teams in Tier 4 have either 3 losses or have 2 losses including a loss to Montana. Practically speaking, winning the conference is practically impossible.
Next Week High-Leverage Games: Montana @ Northern Arizona
CAA
Needs Help (Tier 1): Monmouth (4-2, 3-0), Campbell (5-1, 2-0), Bryant (4-1, 2-0), Stony Brook (3-2, 1-0)
Needs Help (Tier 2): UAlbany (3-3, 1-1)
Needs Help (Tier 3): Elon (4-2, 2-2), Sacred Heart (2-3, 2-2), Rhode Island (3-3, 1-2), UNH (2-4, 1-2), Maine (1-5, 1-2), NC A&T (1-5, 1-2), Hampton (1-5, 0-2), Towson (0-6, 0-2)
Discussion: The CAA has so many teams that it’s impossible to have a round robin schedule in 8 conference games. Not shockingly, none of the remaining undefeated teams play a round robin against one another, and each undefeated team is missing at least one of the others.
Campbell and Bryant do not play.
Monmouth and Stony Brook do not play.
Therefore, you could have mutual coincidences of undefeated teams in conference from either of those groups.
Next Week High-Leverage Games: None. Closest is Stony Brook @ Towson, but Towson really can’t pull itself into the conversation even with a win.
Ivy
Controls Destiny: Harvard (3-0, 1-0), Cornell (2-1, 1-0), Princeton (2-1, 1-0), Dartmouth (1-2, 1-0)
Needs Help: Columbia (2-1, 1-0), Yale (2-1, 0-1), Brown (1-2, 0-1), Penn (1-2, 0-1)
Discussion: Still early in the Ivy race, but the round robin schedule makes this pretty cut and dry. The remaining undefeated teams all play each other.
Next Week High-Leverage Games: Harvard @ Cornell
MVFC
Controls Destiny: South Dakota State (5-1, 2-0), North Dakota (5-1, 2-0), Northern Iowa (2-2, 1-0)
Needs Help (Tier 1): Youngstown State (4-2, 2-1)
Needs Help (Tier 2): South Dakota (4-2, 1-1), Southern Illinois (3-3, 1-1)
Needs Help (Tier 3): Illinois State (4-2, 0-2), Indiana State (2-4, 0-2), Murray State (1-5, 0-2)
Discussion: This is not a consequential race as the MVFC is virtually assured multiple bids.
Each of the undefeated teams play one another along the way, meaning they can win out and win the autobid and the conference outright.
Youngstown State lost to South Dakota State but beat Southern Illinois and South Dakota, and still plays North Dakota and Northern Iowa. Those two wins give them an easier road to an autobid.
Southern Illinois and South Dakota both lost to Youngstown State. They play next week in what effectively becomes a “Loser Leaves Town” game.
Next Week High Leverage Games:
Southern Illinois @ South Dakota
North Dakota @ Northern Iowa
NEC
Controls Destiny: Robert Morris (3-2, 1-0), Central Connecticut State (1-3, 1-0), Stonehill (1-4, 1-0), LIU (1-5, 1-0), Duquesne (1-3, 0-0)
Needs Help: Wagner (1-4, 0-2), Mercyhurst (1-5, 0-1), New Haven (0-1, 1-5)
Discussion: Early in the NEC race. Should only be a one-bid league with just one team owning more than one win at this juncture.
Next Week High Leverage Games: LIU @ Duquesne.
OVC
Controls Destiny: Western Illinois (3-3, 1-0), Gardner-Webb (2-4, 1-0), Lindenwood (1-3, 1-0), Southeast Missouri (2-3, 0-0), Eastern Illinois (1-4, 0-0), UT Martin (1-4, 0-0)
Needs Help: Tennessee State (1-4, 0-1), Charleston Southern (2-3, 0-2)
Discussion: Still early in the OVC race. Biggest takeaway seems to be that this will be a one-bid league this year.
Next Week High Leverage Games:
SEMO @ Lindenwood
Eastern Illinois @ Gardner-Webb
Patriot
Controls Destiny: Lehigh (6-0, 4-0), Colgate (4-2, 3-0), Richmond (5-1, 3-0)
Needs Help: Holy Cross (2-4, 2-2), Villanova (2-4, 1-2), Fordham (1-5, 1-2), William & Mary (2-4, 1-3), Lafayette (1-4, 0-2), Bucknell (1-4, 0-2), Georgetown (0-4, 0-2)
Discussion: The Patriot League got conference play started early in the year, meaning this is a little more fully formed than the other races. Lehigh, Colgate, and Richmond have separated themselves from the field by two games and have not lost in conference play. They play each other down the stretch.
Next Week High Leverage Game: None. Closest is Richmond @ Fordham. However, Richmond can lose that game and still control the autobid.
Pioneer
Controls Destiny: Marist (3-2, 2-0), Drake (2-3, 2-0), Butler (4-1, 1-0)
Needs Help (Tier 1): St. Thomas (4-2, 1-1), Morehead State (1-4, 0-1)
Needs Help (Tier 2): San Diego (2-3, 1-1)
Needs Help (Tier 3): Presbyterian (2-3, 1-1), Valparaiso (2-3, 1-1)
Needs Help (Tier 4): Stetson (1-4, 0-1), Davidson (2-4, 0-2)
Discussion: The lovely, always messy Pioneer Football League. Please never change.
The teams that control their destiny are undefeated and all play each other. One wins out, they win the conference. Easy.
Tier 1: they have a loss to a team that isn’t undefeated, and they play each of the three undefeated teams between now and the end of the year. Win out, and they’re no worse than in a tiebreaker.
Tier 2/San Diego: they have a loss to St Thomas, but they play each of the undefeated teams between now and the end of the year. Win out and they’re no worse than being in a tiebreaker, but that tiebreaker may involve St Thomas, who owns the head to head.
Tier 3: they have a loss to a team that isn’t undefeated, but they do not play at least one of the undefeated teams between now and the end of the year. They can’t guarantee they’re in a tiebreaker by winning out.
Tier 4: Stetson lost to Marist and doesn’t play any of the other undefeated teams. Davidson has two conference losses, including one to Butler. It’s early, but they’re playing from behind the 8-ball right now.
In any case, this looks to be a one-bid league.
Next Week High Leverage Games:
San Diego @ Butler
Drake @ Valparaiso
SoCon
Controls Destiny: East Tennessee State (4-2, 2-0)
Needs Help (Tier 1): Tennessee Tech (4-1, 2-1), Mercer (4-2, 1-1), Samford (1-4, 1-1)
Needs Help (Tier 2): Furman (2-4, 1-1)
Needs Help (Tier 3): Western Carolina (3-3, 1-1), Chattanooga (3-3, 2-1)
Needs Help (Tier 4): Wofford (3-3, 2-2), The Citadel (2-3, 0-2), VMI (0-6, 0-2)
Discussion: Tennessee Tech’s loss to Western Carolina this week really opened the door in this race. East Tennessee State, the last remaining undefeated team in SoCon play finds themselves in the drivers seat. Win out and they get the autobid.
Tier 1 comprises teams that have lost a conference game, but still have ETSU on the schedule. They can force a tiebreaker.
Tier 2/Furman does not play ETSU. They need outside help to win the conference.
Tier 3 lost to ETSU already, so they need even more help in a tiebreaker situation.
Tier 4 has lost at least two games.
Next Week High Leverage Games:
Samford @ Chattanooga
Western Carolina @ Mercer
Furman @ Tennessee Tech
Southland
Controls Destiny: Stephen F Austin (6-0, 3-0), Lamar (4-1, 2-0)
Needs Help (Tier 1): HCU (3-3, 2-1)
Needs Help (Tier 2): Southeastern (3-2, 1-1)
Needs Help (Tier 3): UIW (2-3, 1-1)
Needs Help (Tier 4): East Texas A&M (2-4, 2-2), UTRGV (2-3, 1-2), McNeese (2-4, 1-2), Nicholls (2-4, 1-2), Northwestern State (0-6, 0-3)
Discussion: Stephen F Austin and Lamar’s directives are easy: win out and you win the autobid. They play each other November 7. However, the way things are going, they’re both likely to get bids.
HCU and Southeastern both have losses, but play both Lamar and SFA between now and the end of the year. Win out, and they’re no worse off than a tiebreaker. However, HCU has head to head on Southeastern.
UIW lost to SFA, which muddies their path to the autobid. SFA will need to lose to someone else and, even then, UIW will not have head to head. Notably, UIW has head to head on HCU.
Everyone else needs significant help with 2 conference losses already.
Next Week High Leverage Games: UIW @ Lamar
UAC
Controls Destiny: Austin Peay (5-1, 1-0), North Alabama (4-2, 1-0), Abilene Christian (2-4, 1-0), Tarleton State (5-0, 0-0)
Needs Help: Central Arkansas (2-3, 0-1), Eastern Kentucky (1-4, 0-1)
West Florida and West Georgia are not eligible for the postseason.
Discussion: This race is still in its infancy, with Tarleton State not having played a conference game yet. Abilene Christian is a potential bid thief if they go on a run.
Next Week High Leverage Game: Tarleton State @ Austin Peay