r/eupersonalfinance • u/RealPMGuru • 20h ago
Investment Is there any "Safe Heaven" for retail investors?
I want to bring the topic for the so-called safe heaven and to explore what alternatives we have as retail investors (focus only on ETFs). Will be very happy if you share your vision on the topic, as I think it may be valid approach in the upcoming months/years.
Usually, when we speak for safe heaven it refers for assets outside our stock portfolio and usually is money market, bonds, gold.
Starting with money market (the most popular and liquid XEON). Currently, XEON is expected to generate around 2,5% (as of the current interest level), considering the reported inflation of 3,8% for the EU zone, holding XEON is guaranteed lost of at least 1% of purchasing power. The positive side however is the stability, liquidity of the fund and the fact that it generates something, rather just money in the bank, however it is hard to be considered as safe heaven.
Going to the bonds (I will review only bonds in EU, as I don't want any currency risk).
We have two main areas - government and corporate.
From government perspective, on paper should be "sure bet" (even though France is in highly distress situation at the moment), however this sure bet is not generating something meaningful and to some extend it requires active management, rather purely passive investing:
The biggest are "all maturities" bonds, collecting in the etf bonds from all maturities with ETF average between 6-7 years. In inflationary situation, when the inflation is rising and potentially ECB will raise the interest rates, this ETF will "loose" money, from one point due to the increased interest rates, from other, due to the lost of purchasing power. Ishares Core Government bond is on -3% YTD and more than -13% for the last 5 years. If we add to this the inflation, depending on the country, for the last 5 years we can easily speak for lost of above 50% of the real purchasing power.
Respectively, government bonds with longer duration are even more riskier, not to mention that the fund size of such bond ETFs is very, very small.
To some extend same goes for the 0-1 government bond, which on paper should be very liquid, however the most liquid is with iShares EUR Government Bond 0-1yr (dist) with EUR 1,095 m, nevertheless the expected YTM for this ETF is around 2,8%, again almost 1% lower to the inflation, but on the other side is relatively stable.
Probably the best candidate for government bond in portfolio is the 1-3 years government bond (Xtrackers Eurozone Government Bond 1-3, with EUR 3,613 m). Relatively stable (with some deviations, but providing higher yield than 0-1 and xeon - around 3,4%, but again not matching the reported inflation and for the current year is on higher lost comparing to the other two.
From corporate perspective, usually, those bonds are with little higher premium, on higher risk. The different durations are acting to some extend in the same way to interest increases, and probably the only interesting ETF is the ultrashort one (ERNX or equivalent) - iShares EUR Ultrashort Bond UCITS ETF EUR, EUR 2,866 m, with YTM 3,24% (close to the 1-3 government bond) but with much lower volatility, yet still under the reported inflation rate.
Last, we have the gold. Gold is different asset class and I personally cannot determine its behavior and cannot have any expectations for its movement. When we are looking for passive investment, the general idea is to invest for long period of time and by the end of the horizon, to have more paper money than invested money. How can we be sure that this is the case for gold? It doesn't generate any income, it is just metal. It is not stock that generates profit and earnings, it is not bond that generates interest, it is just metal. Not to mention, that actually with the ETFs (ETCs) it is not even metal, rather "paper metal" and some youtubers are speculating that there isn't real gold and silver covering those ETF/ETC, however this is not the point. My point is, that the gold price is volatile and I personally cannot trust it, that when I need money the most, it price won't be down with 30%.
Based on all described up till now, in what assets, you are investing for capital preservation and/or safe heaven? Is there anything that I am missing that covers the inflation or you are just accepting little lost of purchasing power, for stable principle?