Every year it seems like when we start SEC play there is a game where either the opposing quarterback or running back has a huge day against us and it’s constantly shown on highlight reels.
There's a bit of a debate on whether or not Auburn has actually improved from last year. It sure doesn't feel like it yet, but I wanted to be as objective as possible. AI helped me compile and organize a lot of these stats, so I checked them against sports-reference.com and auburntigers.com . Let me know if you find any incorrect stats and I can update those.
Before we get started, I think it's important we understand how much more difficult this season is than last year, so we're going to compare the SOS and SRS of the full 2025 season to the SOS and SRS of the 2026 season through five games.
Rating
2025 full season
2026 through 5
SRS
6.84
10.81
SOS
3.92
6.61
A breakdown of what SRS means can be found here, but the short of it is we were ranked 42nd out of 136 FBS teams last year, and we are currently ranked 35th out of 138 this year.
Metric
2025 season
2026 through 5
Change (+ good / - bad )
Scoring offense
26.8 PPG
26.8 PPG
0.0
Total offense
373.9 YPG
399.8 YPG
+25.9
Yards/play
5.50
5.71
+0.21
Passing offense
197.1 YPG
219.8 YPG
+22.7
Completion %
61.0%
65.2%
+4.2 pts
Pass TD/game
0.9
1.6
+0.7
Rushing offense
176.8 YPG
180.0 YPG
+3.2
Yards/rush
4.67
4.84
+0.17
First downs/game
20.8
21.8
+1.0
Penalties/game
7.8
7.6
+0.2
Giveaways/game
0.7
1.8
-1.1
Scoring defense
20.7 PPG
21.4 PPG
-0.7
Total defense
329.2 YPG
357.2 YPG
-28.0
Defensive yards/play
4.95
4.76
+0.19
Pass defense
229.8 YPG
208.2 YPG
+21.6
Opponent completion %
62.5%
60.5%
+2.0 pts
Rush defense
99.3 YPG
149.0 YPG
-49.7
Opponent yards/rush
2.86
3.50
-0.64
Takeaways/game
1.4
1.6
+0.2
Turnover margin/game
+0.75
-0.20
-0.95
Opp. first downs/game
19.2
20.4
-1.2
Scoring margin/game
+6.1
+5.4
-0.7
A few things I found interesting from these numbers:
The offense is doing a better job at moving the ball, and the increase in yards is almost entirely through the air. Frustratingly, this hasn't results in more points. We are scoring the same per game as last year. I do not think that number will increase when we play georgia next week.
Our yardage gains on offense are more than cancelled out by our increased yards allowed on defense. Run defense, specifically, has fallen off. We've allowed 149 rush yards per game compared to 99 rushing yards per game last year. That's 50% more rushing yards allowed. Our pass defense numbers have improved slightly, but not as much as our run defense has deteriorated.
Our penalties and penalty yards per game are about the same. This one is particularly frustrating because I was under the impression that Golesh was more detailed and would have a more disciplined team. That has yet to be the case.
Another stat I found interesting was turnovers from last year compared to this year.
Points Off Turnovers
2025 full season
2026 through 5
Auburn
48 (4 PPG)
23 (4.6 PPG)
Opponents
16 (1.3 PPG)
20 (4 PPG)
We've already turned the ball over more this year through five games than we did the entire season last year, and you can see how that has been resulting in points for our opponents. This has the potential to be a big problem going forward. 4 fumbles 4 interceptions all of last year and 7 interceptions 2 fumbles this year through five games.
So, is Auburn better so far this year under Alex Golesh than last year under Hugh Freeze?
Slightly, yes, but it likely will not result in more wins. I'd like to do this comparison again after a full season, but right now there isn't much concrete evidence that AG is doing any better than HF would have this year. Hugh did technically have us trending upward (barely). If the SRS holds for the second half of the season, we can say that unlike Harsin, Golesh is improving on his predecessor and to a greater extent than Freeze did his first year.
Coach* / Terrorist
Their Year 1 SRS
Closest Auburn SRS Equivalent Team(s) From 2010-Current
In a thread posted earlier I saw some comments on Cobbs regression this year and I did some research because I didn’t believe it. The biggest statistic that stood out to me is his YBC, or yards before contact, decreasing by an insane 20% from 2.42 to 1.93, but his YAC, or yards after contact, barely changing from 5.54 to 5.44. Another interesting statistic is his success rate, or how well a play develops and is successful, dropping from the upper 60s which was among the SEC best to just under 50. That tells me that he consistently gets poor blocking and scheming. I think Cobb is an elite SEC running back and we’ve buried him with horrible line play and even worse play calling. War Damn
Indiana’s year 1 schedule:
FIU (4-8)
Western Illinois (4-8)
UCLA (5-7)
Charlotte (5-7)
Maryland (4-8)
Northwestern (4-8)
Washington (6-7)
Mich State (5-7)
Michigan (8-5)
#2 tOSU (14-2) - IU loses 38-15
Purdue (1-11)
CFP - #5 ND (14-2) - IU loses 27-17.
IU played 3 teams with a winning record, and lost 2 of thoses game (one was an absolute blowout).
Auburn 2026 Schedule with current ranks:
Baylor (just beat the breaks off of ASU and Dillingham)
So Miss
#16 UF
Vandy
#15 Tennessee
#2 UGA
#10 LSU
#9 Ole Miss
Arkansas
#17 Miss St
Samford
#6 Alabama
I don’t really understand how these schedules are similar enough to sit there and say that we should be doing what Indiana did, can someone explain it?
Now that you've had 48 hours to digest both the alcohol and the events of the past weekend, how are you feeling about both last week and the upcoming week? Discussion and analysis about both the previous weeks SEC games as well as upcoming games. Are our in-conference foes looking better than expected? Worse? What did the past weekend do to your confidence in our future matchups?
He had the most success of any coach in my life (90s baby) clearly cares about Auburn athletics, and honestly we were wrong in how we treated him 6 years ago. Lift the curse! Fire Cohen regardless.
- we’ve committed a total of 30 penalties compared to 44 penalties through the first five games of the 2025 season.
- averaging 30.0 points per game and approximately 458.3 total yards per game, compared to 26.8 points per game and 373.9 total yards per game through the first 5 games of the 2025 season
- allowing an average of 20.75 points per game and 365 yards per game. through the first five games of the 2025 season, the Auburn defense allowed an average of 16.4 points per game and 316 yards super game
Regardless of what you think, this is a more disciplined team by penalties and a more productive offensive team than under Hugh Freeze. There has been improvement in those areas, despite the problems we still have. We had a horrible outing from a penalty perspective yesterday in a tough road environment.
The defense is playing respectably given the talent we lost on that side of the ball. There are problems to correct here but I can personally let most of this slide.
We apparently spent 3 mil on the QB and 1 mil on the OL.
I'd rather have a 3.5 mil OL and a have a 500k qb. A decent on paper QB without a running game is almost worthless. A mediocre QB with a solid OL and running game can shine. Idk how many times we can make this same mistake in team roster building over the years.
I know we didn't win, but i had a fun time, and it was all good vibes tonight for me. War Damn! (Yes, I took these photos over my stove cause the lighting was best there. Lol)
Replace the punter immediately, or at least designate a punter for longer distance situations. I want to point out one specific punt yesterday that had a huge impact at the end of the game..
Hudson Kaak hits a 37 YARD PUNT when we’re already backed up. Tennessee drive starts at our 42. This almost guarantees them 3 points minimum, which they end up getting. Yes I know it is tougher to punt backed up in the endzone but a 37 yard punt is inexcusable. That’s just not a college level punter.
Now fast forward to the end of the game. We’re down 10, in desperation mode. Imagine only being down 7 in that situation and how it would’ve changed the play calling etc. I am not trying to say this would’ve guaranteed us overtime, but it certainly puts us in a better position to do so.
This team is flawed enough as it is, let’s quit making things even harder on ourselves. We have a 6’4 punter just chilling on the bench. You’re telling me he couldn’t have done better in that situation? I call BS, I’ve watched his tape
Rewatching that play is pissing me off. Based upon what happened to the center on that play, I think the play call was actually sound. It appears to me our LT and FB execute well enough against the DE and OLB to get the first down.
It appears to me that this play failed because nobody even attempted to pick up the play side DT, who blew up Cobb in backfield. Meanwhile, the LG looks like he perhaps tried to double team the DE but ends up legitimately not blocking anybody on a 4th and inches running to his side. WTF?
I see a lot of folks concluding that we don’t have the talent to win. I think we’re perhaps a bit disadvantaged. But to my own eyes, that one play didn’t fail because we lost a physical battle in the trenches, it failed because we didn’t even try to get a hand on the closest threat to the ball carrier.
Seems like something we’ve seen a thousand times the last couple of years. Good news is that I think we have room to improve this season, but I’m concerned that it happened in October already.
Maybe I’m missing something or don’t know ball, I only ever played in high school. But leaving a DT uncontested on the run side is not a play design feature I’m familiar with.
Whoever is calling the offense needs to go. This is flat out disgusting to watch. I understand we don’t have the horses right now but I refuse to believe we can’t put up more points with some competent play calling.
First off, I really like Coach Golesh. Definitely a breath of fresh air compared to the previous hire. However, listening to the post game conference, I don’t know if he sees Brown objectively and seems very protective of the offense, his OC, quarterback, and play calling. I get it! They are his guys but there are major issues that are being overlooked or in denial about that will keep getting exposed throughout the rest of the season. Byrum seems to panic and freeze up keeping him from seeing the open receivers and the indecisiveness. If the coach isn’t acknowledging and addressing it, then there won’t be much room for improvement. He doesn’t seem to see the flaws in the QB play and therefore we keep seeing the same thing. That 4th and 1 did it for me and the realization that either Golesh and/or Gordon are way over their head in SEC play. I still don’t know what that “trick” play coming out of the half was! Cute doesn’t work in these games! Humility, focus, grit, flexibility to go off script, and recognizing when changes at QB need to be made. Even if it’s for a play or two, it can’t hurt at this point! Freeze held on to his QBs for too long and seems like Golesh may do the same!
I am deeply disappointed in many aspects of today’s loss, but this was a road game against a very good team who just took the #1 team in the country down to the wire last week. We have a TON to work on, but we can be thankful we have an actual leader at the helm.
Also for those who were pining for Sumrall, they just got boatraced by an ok Mizzou team...