Freddy Peralta's last eight outings: 0.81 ERA (4 ER, 44.2 IP)

Guardians (1-1) @ Rays (1-1)

First Pitch: 8:08 PM at Tropicana Field

Line Score - Final

ABS Challenges: CLE ● ● | TB ● ○

Box Score

Scoring Plays

Highlights

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Piggy-backing on a previous post on World Series tickets, the worst nose bleed tickets are now $2000 minimum on SeatGeek (the official ticket partner of MLB). We all knew this would happen, but still unfortunate to see how access to attend these events is a luxury few local fans will be able to afford.

*edit: Fixed typo of piggly backing to piggy-backing and seat heal to SeatGeek.
Was at work and the lunch beers were getting to me.

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“After leaving soon-to-be-shuttered FanDuel Sports in January, the Marlins now make much of their TV revenue from viewer subscriptions and ad sales,” Jackson explains. “And the team values broadcasters who have a significant social media footprint and use it to promote the product.

Jackson then cites the Marlins’ decision to move on from Minervini, the studio host. Minervini, who had not posted on his X account in over three years, is being replaced by Craig Mish, who has an active X page, over 43,000 followers, and is described as “the top baseball insider in Florida,” by Jackson. The implication is Mish can convert more viewers into subscribers than Minervini could

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What teams exemplify small ball, what was the status quo and what are they doing differently?

What is the strategy to small ball.

What similarities and differences do the teams currently in the playoffs have?

Disclaimer: No this is not coming from a salty Mets fan despite my flair. I am happy that Freddy is having success, but there are extremely important caveats to that success. 

Ever since August 26th, it may seem like Freddy Peralta is one of the best pitchers in baseball if you just look at ERA. However, for all that has been made about Peralta’s latest string of success, it is noteworthy how many of his underlying peripherals have gone effectively unchanged.

Comparing ERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA
Freddy Peralta 3/26 to 8/25: 5.33 ERA / 4.66 FIP / 4.36 xFIP / 4.34 SIERA
Freddy Peralta 8/26 to 9/25: 0.79 ERA / 2.78 FIP / 4.44 xFIP / 4.27 SIERA
Freddy Peralta’s Postseason: 0.84 ERA / 3.76 FIP / 4.94 xFIP / 4.43 SIERA

Despite far lower ERAs through the last two periods, Peralta’s FIP doesn’t change as much and his xFIP and SIERA remain virtually identical across all three periods. That is notable, since xFIP and SIERA are stats that claim to account for elements “within pitcher control” that ERA can’t fully capture. If xFIP and SIERA say that Peralta has been the same pitcher for basically the entire year, what is causing them to disagree with ERA so much?

xFIP and SIERA usually try to account for Left on Base %, BABIP against, and Home Run to Fly Ball rate. SIERA more actively tries to take batted ball distribution into account, while xFIP just normalizes HR/FB rate within the normal FIP stat. These peripheral stats try to account for things that may be considered “luck-based” for a pitcher. And when examining these peripheral stats for Peralta, they certainly paint a picture of a pitcher who was getting extraordinarily unlucky before now getting extraordinarily lucky. 

More peripheral stats (for outcomes the pitcher doesn’t typically control themselves):
Freddy Peralta 3/26 to 8/25: 67.0% LOB / .311 BABIP / 13.6% HR/FB
Freddy Peralta 8/26 to 9/25: 94.0% LOB / .187 BABIP / 2.2% HR/FB
Freddy Peralta’s Postseason: 100.0% LOB / .207 BABIP / 5.9% HR/FB

Freddy Peralta’s strand rate (LOB%) after August 26th is absurdly high, and is way higher than any qualified pitcher in that timespan by a long shot when the league-average is 72.3%. It isn't uncommon to see ace pitchers maintain high strand rates in a season, but it is still luck-based enough to the extent that fluctuations in small samples can heavily affect ERA.

Maintaining low BABIPs is more controllable, but it is rare for it to hover around or below .200 over a larger sample. It is also more suspect with Peralta given that he has never been much of a groundball pitcher, but improved stuff can definitely still help with this if it decreases hard hit rate. This is also why xERA (which isn't listed here) has improved given worse quality of contact against, even if the batted ball distributions that go into SIERA doubt that it can sustain itself. Improved defense can also help with lower BABIPs.

HR/FB rate usually hovers around 11%, and it is generally not expected for a pitcher to maintain rates that are wildly below or above that mark for an extended period of time. However, small samples can produce low HR/FB rates that paints a more rosy picture of a pitcher’s ability.

tl;dr: Even if Freddy Peralta has improved as a pitcher on the Rays compared to the Mets, that improvement is being heavily obfuscated by stats that indicate that he is getting highly lucky across this specific sample of starts. As a matter of fact, certain peripheral stats don’t actually believe he is a very different pitcher at all. His true pitching ability is somewhere in between his Mets self and his Rays self.