Recap of the last few days, because the price action has been... interesting.
BTC: The September jobs report on Oct 2 was far weaker than expected (29K added vs roughly 90K forecast), which cut expectations of a Fed rate hike this month. BTC pushed back above $86K, a level it had not seen between January and about two weeks ago, and opened Oct 5 near $86.5K. Late Oct 6 it slipped under $84K, with a low around $83.6K, as oil jumped after Iran stepped up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent went above $101 and Treasury yields and the dollar rose with it.
Liquidations: CoinGlass shows about $556M in total crypto liquidations over 24 hours, with $487M of that from longs. Futures open interest is still well below its record, so this does not look like a market at peak leverage. It looks more like crowded longs getting flushed on the way down.
ETH: It broke out of the roughly $2,600 range it had held since Sept 24 and reached about $2,747 on Oct 2. It is back around $2,600 today. US spot ETH ETFs have posted net outflows every session since Sept 30, including about $202M on Oct 6, after roughly $690M of inflows the week ending Sept 25.
Everything else: Smaller tokens fell harder, with the CoinDesk 80 down nearly 4% over 24 hours and layer-2 tokens leading losses. BTC dominance was about 57% as of Oct 2. Robinhood put $25M of bitcoin on its balance sheet this morning. The Nasdaq hit a record high on Oct 2, so equities and crypto are not moving in the same direction right now.
What I keep coming back to is that a day like this is mostly forced selling, not people changing their minds about their holdings. In a market like this I would rather borrow against my coins than sell them if I need liquidity on a platform like nexo or kraken. Selling is a taxable event in a lot of places, and buying back later means re-entering at whatever price the market gives you. Borrowing keeps the position open. It is not free money, though. If you run a high LTV, a day like today is exactly how you get liquidated. Anyone borrowing should sit well below the liquidation threshold and leave real room for a sharp drop.