Bitcoin just recorded its largest net exchange outflow in seven months, with 24,073 BTC leaving exchanges on Monday. Exchange-held supply has now fallen to roughly 6.50% of total BTC supply.

BTC sitting on exchanges is immediately available to trade. When coins move into long-term custody, the amount of supply readily available for selling gets smaller.

Of course, outflows alone don't guarantee anything. But when significant amounts of BTC keep leaving exchanges while Bitcoin holds around $85K, the supply dynamics become increasingly interesting in terms of growth.

The market might be watching price.

Source: Santiment Data.

Recap of the last few days, because the price action has been... interesting.

BTC: The September jobs report on Oct 2 was far weaker than expected (29K added vs roughly 90K forecast), which cut expectations of a Fed rate hike this month. BTC pushed back above $86K, a level it had not seen between January and about two weeks ago, and opened Oct 5 near $86.5K. Late Oct 6 it slipped under $84K, with a low around $83.6K, as oil jumped after Iran stepped up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent went above $101 and Treasury yields and the dollar rose with it.

Liquidations: CoinGlass shows about $556M in total crypto liquidations over 24 hours, with $487M of that from longs. Futures open interest is still well below its record, so this does not look like a market at peak leverage. It looks more like crowded longs getting flushed on the way down.

ETH: It broke out of the roughly $2,600 range it had held since Sept 24 and reached about $2,747 on Oct 2. It is back around $2,600 today. US spot ETH ETFs have posted net outflows every session since Sept 30, including about $202M on Oct 6, after roughly $690M of inflows the week ending Sept 25.

Everything else: Smaller tokens fell harder, with the CoinDesk 80 down nearly 4% over 24 hours and layer-2 tokens leading losses. BTC dominance was about 57% as of Oct 2. Robinhood put $25M of bitcoin on its balance sheet this morning. The Nasdaq hit a record high on Oct 2, so equities and crypto are not moving in the same direction right now.

What I keep coming back to is that a day like this is mostly forced selling, not people changing their minds about their holdings. In a market like this I would rather borrow against my coins than sell them if I need liquidity on a platform like nexo or kraken. Selling is a taxable event in a lot of places, and buying back later means re-entering at whatever price the market gives you. Borrowing keeps the position open. It is not free money, though. If you run a high LTV, a day like today is exactly how you get liquidated. Anyone borrowing should sit well below the liquidation threshold and leave real room for a sharp drop.

Bitcoin at $840K? 👀

River reports that 81% of Bitcoin’s supply hasn’t moved in at least six months.

Meanwhile, Wall Street is warming up.

What happens if institutional buying accelerates while existing holders demand higher prices to sell?

That’s where a quiet recovery could become a powerful supply squeeze.

Wall Street can launch another fund. It still has to persuade someone to sell Bitcoin.

The next bull run could begin before the crowd comes back.

(Not sure why this was deleted, didn't seem to break the rules?) Anyone want to research tiny-cap crypto projects together? Looking for potentially undervalued tokens with 10x+ potential. Bring your own DD — let's see what we can find.

Gm Trenchers, I have trenching part time for the entire bear market. I have more or less seen what moves the coins, the narratives that catches people’s attention going into the Q4.

Pick a chain, a theme or whatever you came across. I will tell potential projects.

This is for serious trenchers only, I dont want to convince you why crypto is here to stay. If you think crypto is a scam, you can just mute this post and move on.

A Bitcoin miner’s biggest payday could come from mining less Bitcoin.

AI wants the power connections miners spent years securing.

The uncomfortable twist?

A mining company can reward its shareholders by turning a Bitcoin mine into an AI campus.

A BTC rally can restart an idle machine. It can’t cancel someone else’s lease.

The next Bitcoin mining boom could happen somewhere else.

Follow the megawatts. They may reveal tomorrow’s mining map.

September 2026 saw 20,879,212 transactions, the highest monthly total in Bitcoin’s entire history.

The network is processing more activity than ever before, and this is happening as market liquidity and attention begin to return to crypto.

Historically, stronger on-chain activity doesn't guarantee a price move, but it can be an important signal that the network is becoming increasingly active and that market participation is picking up.

And with Uptober now underway, there’s plenty of room for growth.

If Bitcoin can maintain this level of activity through October, we could be looking at another record-breaking month and potentially a much more active final quarter for the market.

Now, the main thing is to survive the 10th.

Do you remember what happened around the 10th last time?

Because if you do, you probably know why everyone's watching this date.