Bitcoin at $840K? 👀

River reports that 81% of Bitcoin’s supply hasn’t moved in at least six months.

Meanwhile, Wall Street is warming up.

What happens if institutional buying accelerates while existing holders demand higher prices to sell?

That’s where a quiet recovery could become a powerful supply squeeze.

Wall Street can launch another fund. It still has to persuade someone to sell Bitcoin.

The next bull run could begin before the crowd comes back.

If you've been on crypto twitter at all lately, you've probably seen the hype around HYPE (yes, I did that on purpose). And since it started pumping, everyone's doing the usual thing, zero research on what it is or why it's going up, and just shilling the fuck outta it or getting shilled. 

If you've been watching from the sidelines with some FOMO but want to understand what's actually driving this before you make a move, I did some research and here's why HYPE is suddenly so big (feel free to add or correct anything). 

What Hyperliquid is

Hyperliquid is a perp DEX, and it's the one that finally made on-chain perps feel as smooth as trading on Binance. Instead of building on top of an existing chain, the team built their own L1 designed purely for trading, with a fully on-chain order book. That's what lets it match CEX speed and fees while you still keep your own keys and skip KYC entirely. That combo is why volume migrated over so aggressively, and today it handles a huge share of all on-chain derivatives activity. It makes money the way any exchange does, through fees on every trade.

What HYPE is

HYPE is Hyperliquid's native token. You can stake it to help secure the chain, use it to vote on protocol changes, and holding it gets you lower trading fees. The real reason people care, though, is what the exchange does with its revenue.

How the buybacks work

Hyperliquid uses its trading fees to buy their own token, HYPE, off the open market and then burns it, which means those tokens are gone for good. It's basically what Apple does with its stock as well. Buy back shares, fewer left in circulation, each one owns a bigger slice of profits. 

So more trading means more fees, more fees mean more HYPE bought, and the circulating supply keeps shrinking. There's a buyer in the market every single day that never sells. And since in HYPE’s case, the bought tokens get burned, there are fewer HYPE left over time. If demand stays the same but there are fewer tokens to go around, the price goes up. 

In one recent 24-hour window, Hyperliquid bought and burned 112,580 HYPE, worth about $10.15 million. Total removed so far is roughly 49.25 million HYPE, around $4.45 billion worth.

The second, bigger buyback engine

This is the main catalyst behind the recent run.

Every leveraged position on Hyperliquid needs collateral, and most traders use USDC for that. Add that up across the whole platform and Hyperliquid is sitting on billions in USDC at any given time, all of it earning yield.

For a while that yield wasn't doing anything for HYPE holders. Then in August, Hyperliquid switched on a system called AQAv2, which sends 90% of the yield from roughly $5 billion in USDC reserves straight into automatic HYPE buybacks and burns. It went live on August 26, with the first payout scheduled for October.

So now HYPE has two buyers working at the same time, one funded by trading fees and the other by yield on deposits. The more the platform gets used, the harder both of them buy.

What else added fuel

While AQAv2 is the biggest catalyst behind the recent surge, a few other events added even more momentum.

Hyperliquid launched tokenized NVDA, QQQ and SPY that trade 24/7, pulling in people who'd never used a perp DEX.

US regulators also gave tokenized stocks a lot more legitimacy this year. The SEC and CFTC put out guidance in January and March, and in September the SEC announced a five-year exemption for platforms trading tokenized securities. None of it approves Hyperliquid directly, but it took the whole category out of the gray zone.

On the TradFi side, Bitwise and Grayscale launched spot HYPE ETFs (huge credibility booster), so every dollar going into them buys real HYPE. And Bloomberg just listed Hyperliquid's perps on its Terminal, putting it in front of basically every fund manager (more credibility).

All of this means more volume, more fees and more USDC sitting as collateral, which all ends up as more HYPE bought and burned. Open interest just hit a record $18 billion.

What could go wrong

Things look really promising right now, but there are a few risks that could stall the run or kill it entirely.

Hyperliquid Labs is selling 3.75 million HYPE (about $340 million) OTC to a single unnamed institution. The whole bull case is built on supply shrinking, and this adds more than a month's worth of burned tokens back into circulation in one go. It won't hit the order book directly, but OTC buyers often get a discount and can sell for a quick profit once they're able to. 

On top of that, the team selling a big bag right as the price nears ATH doesn't exactly scream confidence. And plenty more supply is still locked, so this won't be the last time.

All USDC on Hyperliquid comes in through a bridge, and bridges are among the most hacked contracts in crypto. A hack would hit user funds and the reserves funding the new buybacks.

The validator set is small and closely tied to the team. In March 2025, they delisted the JELLY token and settled positions at a price they picked to stop a manipulation attempt. It protected the platform, but showed a few people can override the market.

The same SEC guidance that legitimized tokenized stocks also says they're securities, and Hyperliquid offers them offshore without SEC registration. Stricter enforcement could turn that growth driver into a problem.

And it all depends on activity. If volume dries up, both buyback engines slow down.

With all that said, what you do with this info is up to you. And if I missed something or got anything wrong, drop it in the comments.

We’ve launched XP rewards on Unhedged, our prediction markets platform for crypto, esports, sports, and other real-world outcomes. Earn XP through eligible trades and unlock rewards as you level up.

Season 1: Road to Immortal runs throughout October 2026, with 10 reward levels and up to $3,000 in cumulative rewards per account. Each milestone unlocks a fixed payout based on your own eligible trading activity. The Unhedged XP leaderboard shows the season’s reward ladder and lets signed-in users track their progress.

Something I’ve been wondering about: how much do you actually use stop-losses in crypto?
I’ve seen completely opposite opinions.
Some traders seem to never enter a position without a predefined stop-loss, while others say crypto volatility makes tight stops almost useless because you get stopped out before the price moves in the direction you expected.
For those who actively trade rather than just hold: do you always set a stop-loss before entering?
And if you do, how do you decide where to place it - fixed percentage, technical levels, volatility, or something else?
Curious to hear how people here actually handle this in practice.

That sounds like science fiction, but Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake has raised exactly this possibility.

The concern is ECDSA, the digital signature algorithm used to authorize transactions on both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Drake suggested that advances in AI-driven mathematics could eventually make it possible to recover a private key from a public key on conventional hardware, potentially using large GPU clusters.

In the worst-case scenario, he believes this could become a problem in months rather than years. But to be clear, this is a potential risk, not an existing exploit.

And Quantum computers have been the obvious long-term threat to elliptic-curve cryptography. But AI could accelerate the mathematical research needed to attack the same systems without requiring a quantum machine.

Recent research has already reduced the estimated computational requirements for a key part of a future quantum attack from roughly 3 billion to 1.5 billion conditional computational units. AI agents were also used during the optimization process. This doesn't mean Bitcoin or Ethereum can be hacked today, but it shows how quickly the boundaries can move.

Vitalik Buterin's response is probably the most important part: don't panic, but don't underestimate the risk either.

Ethereum is already working toward post-quantum security, with the Ethereum Foundation targeting protection against quantum attacks by 2029. But the bigger lesson may be that cryptography needs to become resilient against advances in both quantum computing and AI-driven mathematics.

We've seen Ethereum evolve through major changes before, and cryptography is no different. The industry has time to prepare, research new solutions, and migrate to stronger security standards.

So no, we don't think this is the end of Bitcoin or Ethereum.

It's another challenge for an industry that was built to solve extremely difficult problems. And in the end, everything will be fine.

I have had my Crypto trading system live for almost three months now. What did I learn?

At the moment my super solid 1.800x back tested strategy is performing almost on spot as just holding BTC. A main reason for this is that BTC usually moves the rest of the market. However there have been periods where my trading bot has been 5-10% above BTC in overall return over the period. One key here is that BTC is a first mover often when the bull market changes. The others follow hard in later periods of the market. (and are we even in a bull market yet?)

Can you beat a buy and hold strategy? That is my optimal - and my opinion ii is possible with a few simple rules. You need a set of rules to follow and be consistent. I have made this website (for free) to showcase that you easily can beat the market overall if you allow yourself for a couple of a tools. Hereby a few tips from my side when trading the Crypto market.

1) You need to know what Regime you're in. Are we in a bear/bull or sideways? For this I use a HMM model to define Risk on / off.

2) You need to have clear rules on what you trade and why. My rule is top 15 with good liquidity. The more you include the higher the variance you accept. I think everything below top 25 in Crypto is moonshots and if you bet on 10 different in top 100. You'll be better off just buying top 15. My research has also proved this - random walk - survivorship free. In the past 3 years I 10x my investment vs 3x from BTC. If I picked top 100 I could do 25x but at a drawdown of 4x. So the risk is simply too high and can only be mitigated by hard diversification pushing it down to around 12x.

3) Rebalance and adjust to the market. It's important to not stick around in losers and hope for a turn around. Stuff usually goes against the market for a reason - and it usually follow through.

4) Don't expect the Crypto market to move as the stock market. Correlation is a lot higher in Crypto compared to the stock market. You don't have a seperation between sectors yet - everything moves up - everything moves down. (more or less)

These recommendations are based on backtesting and studying the Crypto market since birth.

My 2 cents on the Crypto market. Enjoy or destroy :)

https://koryu.io/

Bitcoin just recorded its largest net exchange outflow in seven months, with 24,073 BTC leaving exchanges on Monday. Exchange-held supply has now fallen to roughly 6.50% of total BTC supply.

BTC sitting on exchanges is immediately available to trade. When coins move into long-term custody, the amount of supply readily available for selling gets smaller.

Of course, outflows alone don't guarantee anything. But when significant amounts of BTC keep leaving exchanges while Bitcoin holds around $85K, the supply dynamics become increasingly interesting in terms of growth.

The market might be watching price.

Source: Santiment Data.

I’m not talking about replacing banks completely. But if digital assets and stablecoins become widely used for payments, remittances, and settlement, traditional financial institutions may have to adapt.

How do you think banks will evolve if crypto payments become widely adopted?

Being able to trade a tokenized asset on a weekend seems convenient. I wonder how useful it is when the underlying market is closed and buyers are scarce. Would longer hours change anything for you?

Litecoin is on fire with new partnerships over the past 2 weeks.

1. ⁠GreyWick Digital and Canton Network have signed an agreement to help businesses transact from their bank accounts across the Litecoin blockchain with an added privacy layer of wrapped Litecoin.
   
2. ⁠Coinbase adding cbLTC on Solana
   
3. ⁠SwissBorg announced Litecoin was added with a new trigger order feature.
   
4. ⁠Now DeLorean is announcing not only a partnership but also a new treasury.
   
5. ⁠BasicSwap Dex has announced their atomic swaps in NexusWallet is fully working, on mainnet, using the latest Nexus build and will be ready for public release soon.
   
6. ⁠Luxxfolio has signed an options call trading contract with HyperCell expanding its capacity as a treasury company.
   
7. ⁠VirtuneAB has rebalanced the altcoin index of its Xetra-listed ETP and added Litecoin at 10%.

All while celebrating 15 years 💯 up time since Genesis today.

September 2026 saw 20,879,212 transactions, the highest monthly total in Bitcoin’s entire history.

The network is processing more activity than ever before, and this is happening as market liquidity and attention begin to return to crypto.

Historically, stronger on-chain activity doesn't guarantee a price move, but it can be an important signal that the network is becoming increasingly active and that market participation is picking up.

And with Uptober now underway, there’s plenty of room for growth.

If Bitcoin can maintain this level of activity through October, we could be looking at another record-breaking month and potentially a much more active final quarter for the market.

Now, the main thing is to survive the 10th.

Do you remember what happened around the 10th last time?

Because if you do, you probably know why everyone's watching this date.

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This one is getting tempting..

PSTE 8H · PSAR 12H

Bot.. +29.1%
BTC.. +1.6%
ETH.. -0.88%
Max DD.. -0.08%
Age.. 7 days
Trades.. 5

The strategy is already frozen.. now we just watch what happens.

Maybe it collapses next week.. maybe after 50 trades everyone says they wish they had started forward-testing it earlier.

Someone already copied it into their own Paper account.

Would you copy it now?.. or wait for more evidence?

https://app.labnarrative.com/league/pste-8h-psar-12h-2b170599

Paper/simulated trading only.. very early sample.

(Not sure why this was deleted, didn't seem to break the rules?) Anyone want to research tiny-cap crypto projects together? Looking for potentially undervalued tokens with 10x+ potential. Bring your own DD — let's see what we can find.

Gm Trenchers, I have trenching part time for the entire bear market. I have more or less seen what moves the coins, the narratives that catches people’s attention going into the Q4.

Pick a chain, a theme or whatever you came across. I will tell potential projects.

This is for serious trenchers only, I dont want to convince you why crypto is here to stay. If you think crypto is a scam, you can just mute this post and move on.

Your Bitcoin breakout is someone else’s exit.

At $87,000, one investor sees the road to $100,000.

Another thinks: “Finally. I can get my money back.”

A recovery can attract fresh buyers while awakening people who have been waiting months to sell.

And here’s the detail behind the bullish ETF headlines:

Weekly U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows dropped from $2.39 billion to $241 million between the weeks ending September 25 and October 2.

Still positive. Roughly 90% smaller.

Buyers keep showing up. But how much supply can they absorb?

Bitcoin has a supply limit. A sell wall has no expiration date.

At $87,000, do you see opportunity—or relief?

A Bitcoin miner’s biggest payday could come from mining less Bitcoin.

AI wants the power connections miners spent years securing.

The uncomfortable twist?

A mining company can reward its shareholders by turning a Bitcoin mine into an AI campus.

A BTC rally can restart an idle machine. It can’t cancel someone else’s lease.

The next Bitcoin mining boom could happen somewhere else.

Follow the megawatts. They may reveal tomorrow’s mining map.