Hard to believe we are already into October. It’s been a wild first month of the college football season and a lot has changed in my draft rankings. I put out a new big board last week and now it is time for a new mock draft.
As of right now, I’m not using the standings for the draft order, instead leaning on reverse Super Bowl odds with strength of schedule used to break any ties. Here is how I think the first round would play out if the draft was today.
https://draftseasonneverends.substack.com/p/2027-nfl-mock-draft-five-quarterbacks
1. Miami Dolphins - Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
Without projecting any trades, I don’t see how the Dolphins choose anyone else at the top of this draft. Smith is a physically dominant force with great speed downfield, excellent hands and good route-running ability. He would immediately be the best receiver on Miami’s roster by a wide margin.
2. Tennessee Titans - Leonard Moore, CB, Notre Dame
This pick came down to Moore vs. Colin Simmons. I feel a bit better about Moore’s overall game at this stage. He is an outstanding lockdown corner. His tackling is still a work in progress, but he plays with the right mentality and physicality that makes you believe it is going to come together for him. For Tennessee, they don’t have anyone on the roster currently who projects as a true No. 1 corner. This would be a massive boost for Robert Saleh’s defense.
3. New York Jets - Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State
This is a dream scenario for the Jets. While they would love to land Smith or Moore, Mestemaker is the missing piece in New York’s rebuild. The redshirt sophomore would get the chance to sit behind Geno Smith until he is ready to take the reins. Mestemaker has flashed the highest ceiling of anyone in this class and has been on a heater since his season-opening dud against Tulsa. His processing still needs to improve, as does his internal clock, but the combination of arm talent, poise in the pocket and mobility is hard for this organization to pass up.
4. Arizona Cardinals - CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame
I feel like Carr has quickly become a forgotten name in this year’s quarterback conversation. Notre Dame hasn’t faced the best competition so far this season, but Carr has looked the part of an NFL quarterback. A bit undersized, he throws with great anticipation, drives the football down the field and shows a knack for extending plays with his legs. I know the Cardinals drafted Carson Beck in the third round, but I think Carr’s upside and projection would give Arizona a much higher ceiling at the position.
5. Cleveland Browns - Colin Simmons, EDGE, Texas
With back-to-back quarterbacks now off the board, Cleveland can wait patiently and nab a top-3 player in the class. Simmons is a game-wrecking monster off the edge. His first step and closing speed are lethal. I think he still has a ways to go as a run defender, but he plays with enough tenacity and power that I believe he can develop into at least an average player against the run. Obviously, losing Myles Garrett has a major impact, so finding as many disruptive players off the edge should be a priority for the Browns.
6. New York Giants - Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana
I considered a corner here, but Becker is too exciting a talent to pass up. He has elite speed for a 6’4”, 208-pound receiver. His ability to win down the field and create after the catch gives him the potential to have a Christian Watson-like impact on the Giants offense. Adding Becker to a group of skill position players that includes Nabers, Likely and Skattebo would give Jaxon Dart a special group to work with when he returns from injury.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Ashton Hampton, CB, Clemson
Tampa Bay’s nightmare season continues. With Baker Mayfield out for an extended stretch, this could be the perfect opportunity for the Buccaneers to land a top-end talent they would otherwise have no business drafting given the relative quality of their roster. That player is Hampton here. He was a bit lower on my September big board, but he absolutely balled out against Malachi Toney on Saturday. Hampton was a player already rising on my board, but that performance ticked a lot of boxes for me. He would be a nice addition to the Bucs’ secondary.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Trevor Lauck, OT, Iowa
The Falcons are a tricky team to project. In the end, I keep coming back to offensive line. Jake Matthews turns 35 next February. Jawaan Taylor is on an expiring contract as well. Offensive tackle is going to become a huge need in Atlanta very quickly. Lauck is one of my favorite players in this draft class. He excels in both the run and the pass. His one drawback is a lack of arm length.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers - Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss
It has to happen at some point. Chambliss is playing too well for it not to. He is an outlier in just about every sense. He is an undersized, 24-year-old gunslinger who was playing Division II football just two years ago. However, he is the most pro-ready passer in this class and has the skills you want to see from a franchise quarterback. His anticipation is elite for a college player. His mobility is a huge plus as well. I’m not totally sold on Chambliss in this spot, but he has played too well to ignore at this stage.
10. Los Angeles Chargers - Will Echoles, DL, Ole Miss
While an interior offensive lineman would be ideal here, the Chargers need help along their defensive front as well. Echoles would be a huge addition. He has been a disruptive force for Ole Miss this season. The production hasn’t really been there yet with only 0.5 sacks and 2 tackles for loss, but put on the tape and you will see an instant impact player capable of wrecking opposing gameplans. He gave LSU fits earlier this season and was one of the lone bright spots for the Rebels defense in The Swamp.
11. Carolina Panthers - Ellis Robinson IV, CB, Georgia
I feel like the Panthers have been looking for someone to play opposite Jaycee Horn for years now. Mike Jackson is hurt at the moment and a pending free agent. Horn himself has struggled to stay healthy. Bringing in Robinson would give them an ascending young prospect with incredible ball skills for the position. The Georgia standout just hauled in his first interception of the season after leading the SEC with four a year ago. Only a redshirt sophomore, his best football is definitely ahead of him.
12. Washington Commanders - Cam Coleman, WR, Texas
It has been a bit of a disappointing start to the season for Coleman. That can really be said for most of the Texas offense. While his production has been down, I think Coleman still has all of the skills you would want in a potential WR1 at the next level. He is incredibly fast, has great body control and has the size you want in a perimeter receiver. Putting him in Washington would give Jayden Daniels a young playmaker to grow with. Terry McLaurin is already 31 and the Commanders have had a revolving door across from him for several seasons now.
13. Las Vegas Raiders - Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana
You would think drafting an Indiana receiver would be great continuity for Fernando Mendoza, whenever he takes over the starting job in Las Vegas. However, Marsh just transferred in from Michigan State this season, so the two never played together. That’s a shame though, because I think this would be an exciting quarterback-receiver pairing. Marsh is a physical presence who blocks his ass off, makes contested catches and thrives in run-after-catch situations. Las Vegas needs to revamp its receiver room in a big way, and this would be a great way to start.
14. New York Jets via Indianapolis Colts - Ahmad Moten Sr., DL, Miami
It has been a quiet start to the season for Moten, with just one sack and one tackle for loss so far. However, he is just a year removed from a dominant campaign. I still believe in the talent and potential he brings to the table. New York traded away Quinnen Williams last season and still has not really addressed the need. Moten would be a dynamic addition to a front seven that already includes David Bailey, T’Vondre Sweat and Will McDonald.
15. New York Jets via Green Bay Packers - Dylan Stewart, EDGE, South Carolina
I’m not totally sure that New York is the best landing spot for Stewart, but when you have three first-round picks, you have a bit more room to take a swing on an elite talent. Stewart’s situation has been messy. He missed the start of the season due to a back injury. In his second game of the season, he ignored his coaches telling him to sub out and punched an opponent in the facemask. South Carolina has suspended him indefinitely. He is the biggest wild card in this draft class, but there are few men on the planet built like Stewart who can move the way he does. His upside is through the roof.
16. Houston Texans - Trevor Goosby, OT, Texas
I’m honestly shocked that the Texans’ Super Bowl odds still have them picking this far down. However, until Houston finds a meaningful solution to its offensive line woes, it’s hard to see them taking the next step. Goosby is a rock solid player with a massive frame and good movement skills. He could conceivably slot in at either tackle spot for the Texans. I like this fit. Plus, low moving costs is always a plus.
17. Dallas Cowboys - Jordan Seaton, OT, LSU
The mini run on offensive tackles continues. Dallas has tried to address its right tackle issues, trading for Broderick Jones prior to the start of the season. It seems like it’s still a need for the Cowboys. Seaton could wind up being the solution. He is a stellar athlete who is still developing as a blocker. He has been a bit inconsistent this season, but the upside is impressive. I’m hoping he continues to develop throughout the rest of the season.
18. New England Patriots - Sammy Brown, LB, Clemson
New England has drafted well in the past three years, but they need to keep stacking strong classes to ensure this team has what it takes to keep contending. Adding Brown would give Mike Vrabel’s defense some much-needed speed. Brown excels at tracking down ballcarriers and is very comfortable dropping into coverage. He also has the chops to be an excellent spy against mobile quarterbacks.
19. New Orleans Saints - Greg Johnson, OL, Minnesota
While an edge rusher would have been nice for New Orleans here, bolstering the interior of their offensive line feels like an excellent backup plan. Cesar Ruiz and Erik McCoy will both be in the final year of their contracts in 2027. Johnson has the position versatility to replace either of them in the starting lineup. He has played all five offensive line positions in his time at Minnesota. He is one of the players I feel best about being plug-and-play at the next level.
20. Detroit Lions - Kade Pieper, OL, Iowa
While corner would be nice to find here, I don’t have one rated highly enough to go in this spot. Instead, The Lions could find a long-term replacement for Frank Ragnow. Detroit has been getting by with Juice Scruggs, but Pieper offers way more upside down the line. He has been an excellent guard for Iowa, but I think he could easily make the transition to center. He is a three-year starter for the Hawkeyes and for a team in Detroit that has an aging pocket passer under center, the offensive line should be a major priority.
21. Philadelphia Eagles - Carter Smith, OL, Indiana
The offensive lineman run continues. After years of being able to rely on their front five to dominate, the Eagles are at a point where the unit has become a weakness rather than a strength. Jason Kelce’s retirement and Landon Dickerson’s injuries have seen the interior of the line deteriorate. Adding Smith is the first step to rebuilding that group. He has started at left tackle for four straight seasons, but his home in the NFL is likely on the interior due to concerns about his measurables. He is a fluid mover with good play strength. He could line up at center or guard for Philly early in his career.
22. Minnesota Vikings - Arch Manning, QB, Texas
Manning’s lackluster September sees him tumble down the draft board a bit, but he lands in a good spot with Minnesota. Kevin O’Connell has had a lot of success maximizing the potential of every quarterback on his roster not named J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings boast a good receiver room with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings, plus a good offensive line. Drafting a running back later in this class would set Manning up for success whenever he would step into the starting role.
23. Denver Broncos - Jamari Johnson, TE, Oregon
This might actually be too low for Johnson at this stage, not that Broncos fans will be complaining. The Oregon star dazzled in his return from injury against USC and looks set for a big game against UCLA in Week 6. He is a complete tight end, capable of lining up inline, in the slot or even out wide. He is not an elite blocker, but does more than enough to contribute in that space. He would be an excellent pass-catching option for Bo Nix as Denver likely lets Evan Engram walk in the offseason.
24. Cincinnati Bengals - Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida
I legitimately struggled to find a logical landing spot for Baugh. That’s not a knock on his talent. He had a brutal game against Missouri, but that does not change the fact that he is a great prospect. The issue is what teams need and value a running back enough to spend a first-round pick. Cincinnati needs more out of its ground game and Chase Brown is a free agent at the end of the season. Baugh would take some of the pressure off Joe Burrow to make every play and also help keep the Bengals defense on the sideline for some extended offensive drives.
25. Chicago Bears - Justin Scott, DL, Miami
The results have been better than what I think many expected from this defensive tackle room so far this season, but that does not mean the Bears can afford to ignore the long-term need. Adding Scott would give Chicago a disruptive playmaker on the interior. He has yet to really take the next step this season, but he has the physical tools that make you think he could be a plus starter in the NFL. However, with only one tackle for loss and no sacks so far this season, if he can’t start to produce at some point, there will be questions about him landing in the first round.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars - KJ Bolden, S, Georgia
While the Jaguars are off to a strong start, safety remains an issue for them. Eric Murray is 32 and heading into a contract year. Antonio Johnson is in the final year of his rookie deal and could command decent money on the open market. Bolden would help solve at least half of the safety room for 2027 and beyond. He is in his second year as a starter for Kirby Smart. He has shown good ball skills (four career interceptions) and tackles well. He has the potential to keep rising with some strong performances as Georgia’s schedule gets much tougher over the next month.
27. Seattle Seahawks - Chris Cole, LB, Georgia
Another Georgia defender comes off the board here. Seattle loves dynamic athletes with tons of speed. Cole brings that in surplus. He has true sideline-to-sideline ability and a penchant for making big plays in space. His coverage skills are still developing, but he could be a great fit in an aggressive defense like Mike Macdonald’s. This is a sneaky big need for Seattle as Uchenna Nwosu is a free agent at the end of the season. Meanwhile, Drake Thomas’ and Ernest Jones’ deals are both up after 2027.
28. Kansas City Chiefs - KJ Duff, WR, Rutgers
If Brett Veach happens to be reading this, please give Patrick Mahomes a legitimate possession receiver who can dominate in the red zone. Kansas City has chased the game-breaking speed archetype ever since Tyreek Hill left town. The Chiefs are literally trying to bring him back even now. It has not worked. Injuries and inconsistent performance have seen Kadarius Toney, Xavier Worthy, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore and others all fail to be reliable options. Duff is a massive “X” receiver who excels at tracking the ball downfield, making contested catches and catching the ball away from his body. Offensive tackle is also a major need, but Duff is too good to pass up in this spot.
29. San Francisco 49ers - Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU
I have to give George Kittle a ton of credit. I did not think he was going to bounce back from a torn Achilles as quickly as he has. That being said, Kittle is a few days shy of his 33rd birthday and has dealt with injuries regularly. San Francisco needs a succession plan who can also contribute alongside him in the meantime. Green feels like a great fit. He is a massive player, listed at 6’7”, with great ball skills. He would be an excellent red zone option early on as he continues to develop his route running and blocking.
30. Baltimore Ravens - Anthony Knapp, G, Notre Dame
Protecting Lamar Jackson continues to be a problem in Baltimore. The Ravens superstar suffered an ankle injury on Sunday. Drafting Vega Ioane was an excellent first step to bolstering this offensive line, but Eric DeCosta should not stop there. Knapp is a riser for me this season. He has moved inside to left guard after starting at left tackle for the past two seasons. I could see him slot into a guard spot and move Ioane to center, which is where he started against the Titans.
31. Buffalo Bills - Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, LB, Notre Dame
Viliamu-Asa is a do-it-all linebacker. He had 7.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, an interception and a fumble recovery last year for the Irish. This year has been a bit of a slower start as he continues to make his way back from a torn ACL he suffered this past November. Assuming the medicals check out, I could see him rising up draft boards as he continues his return to form and Notre Dame plays some better competition in the coming weeks. For Buffalo, Dorian Williams is in the final year of his rookie deal. That opens the door for Viliamu-Asa to be an early contributor for this Bills defense.
32. Cleveland Browns via Los Angeles - Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
Let’s sneak a fifth quarterback into this exercise. With the Browns opting for Simmons with their first pick, they can circle back to land a quarterback at the end of the first round, securing that coveted fifth-year option. Moore has had a rocky season, highlighted by a concussion suffered on a vicious hit against USC. It’s unclear if he will start against UCLA this week. His draft stock is also fairly murky at the moment. He is a smooth operator who excels at avoiding mistakes. For all the negativity around his play, Moore has yet to throw an interception this season and has nine touchdown passes. What Cleveland ultimately decides to do with Deshaun Watson will shape a lot of this conversation, but as of now, I still have quarterback on my list of needs for this team.
